Goldman Slashes Q4 GDP Forecast To Just 1%
from businessinsider:
The latest data has prompted Goldman to cut its Q4 GDP forecast. It now sees just 1% growth.
The key points from Goldman’s Kris Dawsey:
We expect that the positive boost to GDP growth from inventory investment seen last quarter will not persist into Q4.
Weaker inventory series in the monthly business sentiment surveys point to slowing inventory accumulation, and our quarterly models suggest some payback from Q3’s [...]
Morgan Stanley continues to be one of the most bearish big shops around, and the latest Global Asset Strategy report from Gregory Peters drives that home.
The report is titled Fundamental Disconnect and the gist is that the market represents a battle right now between deteriorating fundamentals and central bank liquidity actions, and that the deteriorating fundamentals are likely to trump the easing in the end.
The general view on markets is summed [...]
BREAKING: Apple Misses on Revenue and EPS in Earnings down 5% After Hours, Will Effect the DOW Tomorrow as Well..
APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
APPLE 3Q EPS $9.32, EXP. $10.37
APPLE 3Q NET PROFIT $8.8B
APPLE SEES 4Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $38.01B
AAPLE 3Q GROSS MARGIN 42.8%, EST. 43.8%
APPLE SOLD 17.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.4M
APPLE 3Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 6.8MLN , DOWN 10%
APPLE SOLD 4.0 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, [...]
Major misses everywhere:
APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
APPLE 3Q NET PROFIT $8.8B
APPLE 3Q EPS $9.32, EXP. $10.37
APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
APPLE SEES 4Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $38.01B
AAPLE 3Q GROSS MARGIN 42.8%, EST. 43.8%
APPLE SOLD 17.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.4M
APPLE 3Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 6.8MLN , DOWN 10%
APPLE SOLD 4.0 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 4.3M
APPLE SOLD 6.8 MILLION IPODS IN QTR, UNIT EST. 6.6M
Is [...]
U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment and restocked shelves at a moderate pace, but stronger demand for automobiles softened the blow.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate, theCommerce Department said on Friday in its advance estimate, moderating from the fourth quarter’s 3 percent rate.
While that was below economists’ expectations for a 2.5 percent pace, a surge in consumer spending took some of the [...]
Goldman strategist David Kostin has had better years.
At the beginning of the year he called for the S&P to hit 1325 by mid-year, and then fall to 1250 by year end.
Since then the S&P has blasted far past estimates, and of course is massively above year-end targets.
So what’s Kostin saying now?
He’s sticking with it.
From his latest weekly:
We based our investment thesis for US stocks at the start of 2012 on [...]
Oil as a commodity has always been a highly valuable early warning indicator of economic instability. Every conceivable element of our financial system depends on the price of energy, from fabrication, to production, to shipping, to the consumer’s very ability to travel and make purchases. High energy prices derail healthy economies and completely decimate systems already on the verge of collapse. Oil affects everything.
This is why oil markets also tend [...]
Just headlines:
Iran presses ahead with dollar attack
Japan 4Q GDP Contracts More Than Expected
Draghi’s $158 Billion Free Lunch to Boost EU Bank Profits
Germany: Greek bailout approval not until March
Pennsylvania’s Scranton Strains Under Ruling Cutting Fiscal Repair Measure
Detroit crisis may force sale of crucial assets
Quinn eyes cuts to Medicaid (Illinois)
Fla. Senate looks to cut $600 M in Medicaid reimbursements
Providence Mayor to Deliver State of City Address
China tells banks to roll over local govt [...]
This will hardly be a surprise to anyone with 3 neurons to rub across their frontal lobe, but at least it is now official.
WORLD BANK CUTS GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK, SEES EURO-AREA RECESSION
Bloomberg, which just released an embargoed summary of the World Bank action, summarizes it all.
World Bank cuts global growth forecast by most in 3 yrs as euro area recession threatens to exacerbate slowdown in emerging markets, World Bank says [...]
Bloomberg headlines confirm the Chinese export-led growth dynamo is growing dimmer by the day:
CHINA’S `NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC’ ABOUT EXPORTS IN 2012, CHEN SAYS
CHINA’S TRADE GROWTH MARGIN DECLINED IN DECEMBER, CHEN SAYS
CHINA EXPORTS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER IN EACH MONTH OF 4Q
CHINA 2011 IMPORT GROWTH RATE 5 PCT POINTS HIGHER THAN EXPORTS
CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTER CHEN DEMING SPEAKS AT GENEVA BRIEFING
Translation: the next several Chinese monthly surplus reports will not be pretty, [...]
*T
================================================
2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q
2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009
================================================
———————— As % of GDP* ———————–
EU27 -5.7% -5.9% -6.6% -6.8% -6.8% -7.1% -6.9% -6.0%
Eurozone -5.5% -5.7% -6.2% -6.5% -6.4% -6.7% -6.4% -5.5%
——————————————————————————-
Ireland -23.4% -24.9% -31.3% -24.5% -19.3% -20.3% -14.2% -13.1%
Greece -10.2% -9.5% -10.8% -12.3% -13.6% -15.5% -15.8% -13.4%
United Kingdom -9.4% -9.5% -10.2% -10.5% -10.9% -11.5% -11.3% -10.2%
Portugal -8.8% -9.3% -9.8% -10.3% -10.5% -9.9% -10.2% -8.3%
Spain -9.2% [...]
MANUFACTURING
Stryker, the Kalamazoo-based maker of artificial hips and knees, will cut 5% of its global workforce by the end of next year to reduce costs in the face of new fees on device makers required by the U.S. health care law.
The job cuts will reduce annual pretax operating costs by more than $100 million beginning in 2013, when the medical-device excise tax is scheduled to take effect, Stryker said Thursday [...]
by ZH
The latest Momo implosion as predicted:
AMAZON.COM 3Q EPS 14C, EST. 24C
AMAZON.COM 3Q REVENUE $10.88 BILLION VS EST. $10.95
AMAZON.COM SEES 4Q SALES $16.45B-$18.65B, EST. $18.16B
AMAZON.COM 3Q OPERATING MARGIN 0.7%
AMAZON.COM sees 4Q operating income (loss) between $(200) million and $250 million, or between 142% decline and 47% decline compared with fourth quarter 2010
No, Paulson & Co. is not long.
And it just gets uglier:
From the earnings release:
The [...]
The inconceivable just happened:
APPLE 4Q REV. $28.27B, EST. $29.60B
APPLE 4Q EPS $7.05, EST. $7.31
APPLE SOLD 11.12 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, EST. 11.5M
Stock after hours:
And as a reminder, more hedge funds hold Apple than any other stock:
- ZH
Costco Wholesale Corp. is raising its membership fees 10 percent as the wholesale club operator tries to keep its prices on products low to keep drawing value-focused shoppers.
All retailers are struggling to balance soaring costs against shoppers’ continuing demand for low prices.
Costco has hesitated to raise its prices, for fear of losing its appeal with consumers who are willing to pay a membership fee to get [...]
H.J. Heinz Co.’s global expansion efforts are paying off, driving its fourth-quarter net income up 16 percent. But the world’s biggest ketchup maker said it needs to raise prices and cut jobs to continue its profitable path.
The company, based in Pittburgh, announced Thursday that it will shed up to 1,000 jobs globally in fiscal 2012 as it closes five factories. Heinz has 37,000 workers worldwide. [...]
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