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Fiscal Policy: Shorn of its accounting gimmicks, the president’s budget isn’t a “balanced” plan to get the debt crisis under control. It’s a monument to fiscal irresponsibility. With much fanfare and a lot of media hype, President Obama unveiled his latest budget plan — two months late. An IBD review of Obama’s budget finds that, among other things, it: • Boosts spending and deficits over the next two years. Obama’s own budget [...] Tuesday marks the 1,350th day since the Senate passed a budget. The law requires Congress to pass a budget every year, on the grounds that Americans deserve to know how the government plans to spend the trillions of taxpayer dollars it collects, along with dollars it borrows at the taxpayers’ expense. But Majority Leader Harry Reid, who last allowed a budget through the Senate in April 2009, has ignored the [...] ‘Send Scissorhands to Washington.’ Rick Santelli yesterday on faux spending cuts, baseline budget lies and deficit word games meant to obfuscate and impress.
dailybail From Azizonomics: If your predictions are wildly out-of-whack with reality, you need to change your approach. Here’s a 2009 Obama administration graph authored by Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer showing their calculations for future unemployment levels with and without the Obama stimulus, updated by James Pethikoukis to show the actual figures… These predictions have been an unmitigated disaster. Not only did the real figures not match up to the advertised ones, but they [...] (Reuters) – The United States faces 20-percent odds of a return to recession, rating agency Standard & Poor’s said on Tuesday, although it said a slow recovery remains the company’s baseline forecast for the world’s biggest economy. “But the risk of another downward leg on the recession remains real,” the agency said in a statement. While S&P said it could be underestimating American consumers, years of stagnation, as Japanhas seen, could also occur. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/26/us-usa-ratings-sandp-idUSBRE85P0Z120120626 Goldman’s Jan Hatzius has some more in-depth thoughts relating to yesterday’s Fed decision to extend Operation Twist, but not (yet) do full-blown QE3. Says Hatzius: Further easing is likely to be needed. Our forecast implies that the US economy will continue to struggle with slow growth and high unemployment of more than 8% going into 2013. Specifically, we forecast a slowdown in real GDP growth to just 1.5% (quarter-on-quarter, annualized) in the first [...] The Consumer Confidence Index, compiled by Globes Research and pwc Israel, fell by 2.1 points in May 2012 to 81.9 points (baseline 100 = 1996), after rising by 3.8 points in April and 2.4 points in March. The public’s declining confidence pushed the index below the 82-84 point band where has it hovered since early 2011, with the exception of last year’s summer of protest. Consumer confidence in Israel may be [...] Last week we had the Fed’s hawks line up one after another telling us how no more QE would ever happen. We ignored them because they are simply the bad cops to the Fed’s good cop doves. Sure enough, here comes Bernanke’s right hand man, or in this case woman, hinting that one can forget everything the hawkish stance, and that ZIRP may last not until 2014, but 2015! Which, by the [...] Honda D California substitute plan NAY – 345 YEA 79 No Vote – 8 More politicking in Washington. No matter what happens here, the Senate not having passed a Budget in Senator Reid’s Democrat controlled Senate has long passed 1000 days with no budget passed. The massive yearly increase included in Baseline Budgeting Law required increases goes on and on. We are spending trillions for no good reason except insanity. This spending more than one brings in has [...] Software scans for Tweets containing words such as company names or related terms Counting volume of Tweets and how they link can predict stock prices the next day Want to predict what will happen in the stock market tomorrow? Just use Twitter, say Californian researchers. A team at the University of California has created a computer model which allows them to ‘predict the future’ of the stock [...] From Zero Hedge: While headlines yesterday crowed and complained of the small rise in the budget and the focus on taxing the wealthy – which admittedly given the peak polarization in political parties is unlikely to actually move into legislation anytime soon – JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest finds perhaps the most controversial part of the proposal hidden deep in the report. While the JPMorgan CIO notes the CBO baseline and alternative scenarios, it [...] Staple Foods Storage By The Numbers, by Paul B. The most basic survival task that every person can do is to begin an emergency food pantry or stockpile or whatever term one wishes to use. The problem I have always had is in not knowing the quantities of staple foods to store. I know there are food storage calculators on-line that will give total amounts for various items but they don’t [...] By William L. Watts FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Europe faces a rising risk of a double-dip recession amid deteriorating business sentiment in European markets and an expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services warned Tuesday. “We now estimate the probability of a new recession in western Europe next year at about 40%, although in our baseline forecast we continue to anticipate sluggish [...] RUSH: Well, the Senate is prepared to vote on the bill. It’s a fait accompli. It is going to happen, and depending on where you look, everybody’s claiming to be winners, and in other places you look everybody’s claiming to be losers. If everybody lost, it means it’s probably a pretty good deal. If everybody’s unhappy, it’s that line of thinking. I look at [...] For those of you that don’t know what the baseline is and how baseline budgeting works, let me give you the real quick explanation of it. When you put together your budget, if you do one, you take last year’s spending and income and you take a look at it and you figure out if you spent more than you had, or if you didn’t spend [...] “Baseline budgeting” is one of those Washington terms that sounds very dry and boring. In reality, baseline budgeting is one of the most sinister ways that politicians claim to cut spending when they are actually increasing spending. The Congressional Budget Office defines the baseline as a benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenue or spending, with the assumption that current [...] BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: So Obama has told the bankers secretly and privately, according to the Drudge Report, that we’re not gonna be defaulting, that there will not be a default. Charles Gasparino had the story at the Fox Business Network. It’s just as we’ve told you. There isn’t gonna be any default and there probably won’t be a downgrade. All of this is hocus-pocus. Look at what [...] The way this is being ignored is disgusting Oh my, what do we have here? Incidentally, this gentleman is right. I missed this and shouldn’t have. This is not in the realm of probability stacking any more. The page portion here is curved as it is allegedly “scanned” from a book page. The curvature is consistent with both the margin lines and the printed word “Sex.” The typed word Male shows [...] “Bond yields fall in response to the lower inflation and the More robust growth helps [...] i) European sovereign debt is far from resolved, ii) Uncertainty emerging from governmental changes in the Middle East, iii) Unwinding commodity price inflation, and iv) Homeland Investment Act-2. From Englander: We share a generally positive view of global asset markets with our colleagues in Economics and other Strategy areas, but are finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the very fat tails for USD strength. What makes [...] |
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