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October can be the cruelest month for stocks
Mark Hulbert: The seasonal pattern that is the source of the “Sell In May and Go Away” strategy is based on historical averages, and there is wide variability in the year-by-year results. In fact, just over half the time since the Dow was created in 1896, that six-month stretch has done at least as well as it has this year. The reason that [...] Since Obama has taken office …. –> For every $1 added to the economy, we’ve added more than $3 in debt –> added $5.23 trillion in debt vs. $1.68 trillion to the economy Total Public Debt: $10,626T [Jan 20, 2009] –> $5.23 trillion increase in debt [source: Treasury Dept] …… GDP $13,923T [Q1 2009] –> $1.68 trillion increase in GDP [source: BEA]
Posted in: foxnews Average yearly, top-end tax rates in America, by decade: 1950s: 90.54% US Average Yearly Unemployment Rate, By Decade: 1950s 4.51% Nominal GDP Growth 1950s 6.71% Real GDP Growth (The above minus inflation) 1950s 4.39% Per Capita, Real GDP Growth (The above adjusted for population growth) 1950s 2.60% Debt-Adjusted, Per Capita, Real GDP Growth [...] Today’s GDP report included lots of revisions.
Here’s a quick round up: 2008-2011 real GDP up 0.3%, revised from 0.4% Here’s everything else from the BEA: Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-revisions-2012-7#ixzz21pL40eVp Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm From the BEA’s state by state GDP breakdown for 2011. The dark blue states (highest quintile) are the 10 fastest growing states, the light blue the next 10, and so on.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com … The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.1 as reported in today’s public release of the data through May 4. This is essentially unchanged from last week. However, the underlying WLI again rose fractionally from an adjusted 124.6 to 125.4 (see the fourth chart below).
ECRI Reaffirms it’s the Recession Call … Again The big news this week, however, is not the [...] From Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs Stimulus Tactic of Increasing Government Debt to Increase GDP Broken and Unsustainable. How Long before Massive Government Debt Buildup Triggers Another Financial Shock? Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. A recent post on the popular ZeroHedge financial blog compared the annualized growth in federal debt to the annualized growth in GDP in Q1 2012. ZeroHedge reported that while U.S. government debt rose [...] From Zero Hedge: With precisely one year left for the world and all of its inhabitants, at least according to the Mayans, not to mention on the day of the Winter Solstice, it is only fitting that U.S. debt, net of all settlements for all already completed bond auctions, is now at precisely $15,182,756,264,288.80. Why is this relevant? Because the latest annualized U.S. GDP, according to the BEA, was $15,180,900,000.00. Which means that, [...] by ZH With precisely one year left for the world and all of its inhabitants, at least according to the Mayans, not to mention on the day of the Winter Solstice, it is only fitting that US debt, net of all settlements for all already completed bond auctions, is now at precisely $15,182,756,264,288.80. Why is this relevant? Because the latest annualized US GDP, According To The BEA, was $15,180,900,000.00. Which means that, as of [...] by Jeff Snider of Atlantic Capital Management ‘Tis The Season For Seasonal Obfuscation The headline GDP number was apparently enough growth to completely erase all thoughts of any renewed recession. However, most of us know that one quarter is not a trend and that the quarterly numbers are often statistically adjusted beyond something non-statistically meaningful. If we look at the headline numbers in sequence, it certainly seems that the economy is picking up from [...] Earlier today we presented Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day which represented the GDP and Debt per capita on a historical and projected basis, and we hysterically, and tongue-in-cheekly, dubbed it “The Scariest Chart Ever” because it confirmed that at some point, very soon, US Debt will surpass GDP and never look back. We decided to dig into the actual numbers (cancelling out the per capital denominator as it is the [...] Steven Hansen Every day recently, readers have had to digest a growing number of pundits screaming “upcoming recession” giving a cacophony of reasons. Other than a horribly weak economy, there are no major signs indicating an outright contraction. As I have stated previously, a discussion of whether the USA is in a depression would be more pertinent. In a depression, there are no economic [...] In his State of the Union address on Jan. 25, 2011, President Barack Obama suggested that the economy is in recovery mode. “We are poised for progress,” the president told a joint session of Congress. “Two years after the worst recession most of us have ever known, the stock market has come roaring back. Corporate profits are up. The economy is growing again.” We decided to see if corporate [...] via ZH Back in May when we presented our humble and succinct analysis on what the preliminary 1.8% GDP looked like, we said “Ex the now traditional inventory build [of 1.2%], Q1 GDP growth was sub 1%” basically being the only party who said that aside for the “old faithful plug” better known as the traditional BEA fudge to get GDP to whereever the administration wants it, growth [...] The Federal Government borrowed and spent $5.1 trillion to get $700 billion in total GDP “growth” from 2008-2011. In constant dollars, there was no growth at all. The Federal government borrowed and spent $5.1 trillion over the past four years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation’s GDP. That means we’ve borrowed and spent $7.28 for every $1 of nominal “growth” in GDP. In constant [...] PARIS (Reuters) – Pilots wrestled with the controls of an Air France airliner for more than four minutes before it plunged into the Atlantic with its nose up, killing all 228 people on board, French investigators said Friday. The 2009 emergency began with a stall warning two and a half hours into the Rio-Paris flight and nine minutes after the captain had left the cockpit for [...] PARIS (Reuters) – Pilots wrestled with the controls of an Air France airliner for more than four minutes before it plunged into the Atlantic with its nose up, killing all 228 people on board, French investigators said Friday. The 2009 emergency began with a stall warning two and a half hours into the Rio-Paris flight and nine minutes after the captain had left the cockpit for a routine rest period. The Airbus [...] Full Report: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2011/pdf/gdp1q11_adv.pdf Marginal, average yearly, top-end tax rates in America, by decade: 1950s: 90.54% 1960s: 80.33% 1970s: 70.18% 1980s: 48.45% 1990s: 36.72% 2000s 36.23% 2010s 35.00% Real, Per Capita GDP Growth in America, by decade: 1950s: 2.76% 1960s: 3.01% 1970s: 1.68% 1980s: 1.56% 1990s: 1.57% 2000s: 0.35% 2010s: 0.60% Source: IRS, Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) +++ Okay, for anyone who has studied basic macro-econ omics, there’s a well documented phenomenon known as the “marginal propensity to save versus the marginal propensity to consume”. This bit of economic theory [...] by Mark J. Perry Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.77% in November from a year earlier, to $9.432 billion, according to today’s BEA report. This was the largest increase in spending since a 2.96% yearly gain in January 2007, and lifted consumption spending above the pre-recession peak of $9.355 billion in December of 2007, when the recession officially started (see chart [...] by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform Who’s Lying? Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate mainstream media? Here is the latest wisdom flowing from the lying mouthpieces of the ruling oligarchy (Wall Street, Washington DC, Mega-corporations): The economy is recovering and employment is growing. Consumers are deleveraging, saving and using cash for purchases. Retailers are doing fantastic as consumers increase spending. These are the three [...] Much of this morning’s $59.3B gain in personal income came from Uncle Sam, with personal transfer receipts from the government up $35.8B vs. a $500M gain last month, reflecting “the effects of unemployment compensation legislation, which boosted special unemployment insurance benefits by $20.6B” after reducing benefits by $17.1B in July. “The August change reflected the effects of unemployment compensation legislation, which boosted special unemployment insurance benefits by [...] Those who still claim that what happens in the stock market and the national economy now, comparable to what happened in 1929 must have lost the last remnant of reason There is an ocean of difference both if you look at why the stock market rises, and how the macro has evolved. Right after the crash of 1929 stock market rose as one might expected better figures again. It was not [...] From John Mauldin’s hedge fund newsletter: “And now let me introduce you to a new economic metric from the Consumer Metrics Institute. They track consumer discretionary spending on a daily basis. ( http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html – hat tip Bill King.) From their web site: “The Consumer Metrics Institute was founded on a simple observation: many ‘leading’ economic indicators are published, but few (if any) are sufficiently ‘leading’ to be meaningful [...] It’s not an aggregated collation of hard data: It’s just a gaggle of loose BEA estimates based on highly questionable assumptions. Read it for yourself and see; it’s short enough. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm It’s full of unscientific statistical leaps of fancy, like this: “Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $304.0 billion in March…” Notice that it defines Personal Savings as “Disposable Personal Income less personal outlays”. “Personal Outlays” is what they guess you [...] Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. I think it’s particulary worthwhile to pay attention to the growth in real personal consumptiona as this drives 70% of [...] quote U.S.-owned assets abroad increased $294.1 billion in the third quarter, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers Net U.S. purchases of foreign securities were [...] |
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