The current “bull market” doesn’t even qualify as cyclical in that it was engineered by the Federal Reserve. It is propped up by printing presses and the Presidents Working Committee, and that is all. If anything causes the markets faith in Bernanke to wane, the game is over. Worse yet, things are bad in so many different places that it will take a separate act of God (not Bernanke) to [...]
First it was thousands of dead pigs floating in the Shanghai water supply (at last estimate over 16,000), then a thousand dead ducks were pulled from a river in the Sichuan province, and now, pushing the meme beyond even its most grotesque boundaries, we learn that five black swans were found floating lifeless on the pond of Anhui University’s old campus in Hefei, traditionally inhabited by a bevy of black swans. From Danwei: “The [...]
DAVID WEIDNER: Dow 36,000? Try 6,300
…Today, many investors are still on the sidelines. They’ve been burned by the dot-com boom and bust, the housing boom and bust, and multiple boom and busts. Glassman calls these and other market-shaking events “black swans.” But a black swan by definition is surprising and transformational. It doesn’t occur multiple times in a decade. What occurs every few years? Market ups and downs.
Glassman’s better argument [...]
from Gold Money:
Are the markets at long last taking central banks at their word? This would appear to be the conclusion to draw from the continuing bullish action in stocks and commodities, as well as gold and silver, though there remain any number of black swans circling overhead. The euro and Aussie dollar are gaining while the US dollar is losing ground to other currencies – sure signs of bullish sentiment. [...]
This Monti resignation rumor is so unexpected. Just like spotting a Black Swan on Zurich Lake. (now talking about Black Swans)
BERLUSCONI: Things Have Gotten Much Worse In Italy, And I Am ‘Besieged’ By Requests To Make A Comeback
Italian bond yields are surging, Monti appears to have lost majority in the Senate and rumors that he should resign any minute.
BERLUSCONI’S REVENGE: Italian Market Dives, Yields Spike, Amid New Political Chaos
Everything was [...]
Renewed jitters over Europe, growing fears about China and the U.S’s precarious fiscal situation all bode poorly for the recent stock rally, which could correct as much as 25 percent in the coming months, an investment manager said Wednesday.
Market participants often refer to unanticipated occurences that rock the global economy as “black swans“. Yet Stanley Crouch, chief investment officer at Aegis Capital, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” that a “freckled swan” [...]
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, I am dead serious. Overpopulation. Resource wars. Pandemics. Famine. Starvation. Water shortages. The Pentagon says by 2020 “warfare will define human life.” Unpredictable black swans, catastrophic events that will set off more global revolutions.
How can you plan your retirement? In this insane world? You can’t. Seriously, nobody will be able to prepare to retire anytime between [...]
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Facebook just joined a “troubled club,” warns the Economist. Now it’s just another “endangered public company.”
Yes, endangered. The number of public companies has declined 37% since 1997. The number of IPOs has dropped from 311 annually before 2000 to 99 the past decade. Meanwhile, the smart CEOs and the Super Rich are “going private,” to avoid government red [...]
Stocks are at their most oversold levels since the doom days of the financial crisis and may be due for a rally, according to one measure.
Though the relative decline seems tame in comparison, the 7 percent drop since early April in the S&P 500 index [.SPX 1295.22 -9.64 (-0.74%) ] compared to recent trends is on par with tumbles during the financial crisis, as well as low points [...]
Today one of the legends in the gold world told King World News the Greek situation will be catastrophic as it plays out over time. Keith Barron is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in history and consults with major gold companies around the world as well as international brokerage houses. Barron also said investors should expect to see more black swans on the horizon. Here is how [...]
American investor (and longtime CM.com member) Erik Townsend has spent the past several years living internationally, with an eye to which countries may be good alternatives if economic crisis and/or Peak Oil start to materially impact life in the US.
His main observation as an expat? Through its misguided policies, the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world, raising prices all over the globe (as an example, he [...]
by Linette Lopez
We know this from driving cars — human beings can only react so fast.
This fact also applies, obviously, to driving the market. Human beings can still only move so fast, but the financial industry is calling for vehicles that move faster and faster. A group of professors and researchers got together to think out exactly what that means.
Their findings were published in a paper called ‘Financial black swans driven [...]
From Economic Policy Journal:
Many people remember the book Walden as the story of a hermit living in a hut, who survived on twigs and berries in the Concord, Massachusetts woods. Its author, Henry David Thoreau, was no hermit, but a survivalist and philosopher who personified the best of American values of self-reliance, simplicity, love of the land, individualism, and defense of personal liberty against governmental overreaching.
He lived simply on Walden Pond from [...]
Uploaded by CapitalAccount on Jan 9, 2012
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Merkozy reunites and turns up the heat on Greece to reform and cut the national debt, as markets fear the Greek bailout is unraveling. And signs of paranormal activity continue as investors pay Germany to lend the government money. The interest on 6-month German Bills — close to 5 billion dollars worth — were auctioned at a negative yield. We’ll talk about [...]
by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds.com
The Circling Black Swans of 2012 (January 2, 2012)
The Imperial hubris of America’s Elites offers up a tempting target for black swans, as suppressing the sources of instability only increases the odds of disruptive instability.
Longtime correspondent (and Oregon resident) R.S.D. recently made this observation about black swans:
I notice that a number of predictors for 2012 never mention the flock of black swans that are currently circling in [...]
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,
Rather than making some predictions, here is a list of words and phrases that were popular in 2011 that just annoy me. It would be nice if they become less popular in 2012, but I predict they will remain in use.
No self-respecting videogame would have a “bazooka” as the ultimate weapon. Bazookas just aren’t that powerful. Maybe Europe needs to search for a “nuclear” option, [...]
From Saxo’s Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen
2012: THE PERFECT STORM
Generating this year’s Outrageous Predictions has been even more of a pleasure than usual, as it seems that never before have there been so many path uncertainties for the future, so we have had an infinite variety of scenarios to draw on. As usual, we try to keep at least a measure of consistency across the predictions by using a unifying theme. [...]
Black Swans And Complexity
Submitted by Jim Lewis
Nassim Taleb is wrong about the financial crisis and black swans.
The ongoing financial crisis is not the result of a perplexing phenomenon of complexity. It is the beginning of a train wreck we have seen for decades. We are not wandering into a surprise or horrified by the dark specter of a Black Swan rearing its long tailed head; this macro crisis appeared on [...]
With stocks turning higher, gold near $1,625 and silver at $30, today King World News interviewed one of the most street smart pros, Rick Rule, Founder of Global Resource Investments, which is now part of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. When asked about the tremendous volatility and wild swings in all of the markets, Rule responded, “What I see happening is a crisis [...]
So what is going on in the markets? We had Fukushima, but that was all good for the economy, because we had to rebuild Japan (with printing money).Then those guys in MENA wanted freedom (and lower food prices). NATO started Operation bomb Libya to stone age, but that was all good, that needs rebuilding too. Greece suddenly discovered it had no money left. Ireland [...]
Over the weekend it was announced that the European Emergency fund may not be large enough to bailout all of the country’s who are bankrupt in Europe. This is really not a surprise.
Back in 2010 when the bailout fund was first announced I said it would prove to be another “Paulson’s bazooka” effort (in reference to Hank Paulson’s 2008 claim that a blank check to [...]
Posted Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Mohammed El-Erian is given credit for the phrase ‘The New Normal’ to mean an altered state of perceived instability within the normalcy realm, as in crisis being called normal, like endless crisis. As buddy Jim Mess in Europe says, just like trying to redefine what debt default is, it sounds like high octane prevarication. El-Erian is considered one of the good [...]
Many Americans are already concerned about China’s growing economic challenge to the United States. Indeed, the challenge itself is hardly news anymore. But a new book, Red Alert by Stephen Leeb, argues that Americans have radically misunderstood just what this challenge consists of.
Easy to read piece in the Huffington Post.
Well, well. It seems the decolonisation of Africa has been for naught. The west stepped out and China moved [...]
by Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press
Migration Of The Black Swans
The phrase “Black Swan” is really making the rounds these last few months. Uttering the term a year ago would have earned you a collection of confused looks and a general attitude of disinterest. Now, people behave as if they had learned about economic shockwave events and the global domino effect when they were in [...]
….. love the bears …… love xtranormal …..
Getting a few reports — http://www.examiner.com/environmental-ne… — of a major oil spill in the GoM.
The U.S. Coast Guard is currently investigating reports of a potentially massive oil sheen about 20 miles away from the site of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion last April.
According to Paul Barnard, operations controller for the USCG in Louisiana, a helicopter crew has been dispatched to the site of the Matterhorn [...]
Is Russia the Best or Worst in BRIC? from Troika Dialog on Vimeo.
Is Russia the Best or Worst in BRIC? from Troika Dialog on Vimeo.
â€œThe Black Swanâ€ author Nassim Taleb, and “Gloom Boom Doom” publisher Marc Faber recently spoke at a conference in Moscow where they revealed their most preferred investments in the current macroeconomic environment.
Both investors were asked what would be the best investment for the next ten [...]
1. Iran detonates a nuclear device (test). The Obama admin is playing with a very dangerous fire here!
2. A major nation is downgraded, such as Spain, Ireland, Great Britain, or possibly even Japan. Look at the carnage when Greece was downgraded, now imagine a larger nation.
3. A major bank is closed (on FDIC Friday?). The weekend probably would not mitigate the damage.
4. Oil over $100 a barrel.
5. A successful terrorist [...]