The Outbreak of Civil War in Greece: Strategic leadership, brinkmanship, and deterrence failure
PAPPAS, Takis S.
Civil war prevention; Greece; counterfactual method; political leadership; George Papandreou; brinkmanship
EUI SPS; 2012/02
This article argues against two firmly-established ideas about the 1944 communist insurgency that led to the outbreak of civil war in postliberation Greece: (a) blame attribution to predominantly one actor, who, depending on each author’s ideological perspective, is either the Greek Communists or the British, and (b) outcome inevitability. [...]
Published on May 25, 2012 by RussiaToday
A game of brinkmanship’s playing out in the dilemma over Greece staying or quitting the euro. Economists see Europe’s money power-brokers offering Athens nothing new but to do as its told and keep cutting – even though Greek voters are increasingly likely to reject that next month. RT’s Peter Oliver has the story.
WASHINGTON — It is increasingly conceivable that Greece may leave the euro zone, not just because of its own political dysfunction but also because the consequences of such an exit for the rest of the Europe and the global economy no longer seem quite so scary.
The foot-dragging and brinkmanship of the last few years have won the other members of the currency union valuable time to prepare for life without [...]
Softening, Merkel Says She Is Open to Stimulus for Greece
By NICHOLAS KULISH and MELISSA EDDY
Published: May 16, 2012
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said Wednesday that she was ready to discuss stimulus programs to get the Greek economy growing again and that she was committed to keeping Greece in the euro zone, signaling a softer approach toward the struggling country.
The fierce rhetorical salvos out of Germany in the past [...]
by Simone Foxman
Markets are rallying in the wake of Greek parliamentary approval for a new round of austerity measures that would trim €325 million ($430 million) from the government’s 2013 budget, reduce minimum wage by 20%, cut 15,000 public sector jobs, and draw down medical spending and benefits from pension funds.
However, the real hurdle is still ahead for the disbursement of Greece’s second bailout—private sector involvement.
Negotiations between Greece and its private sector [...]
Greece is pressing its European Union partners to make last-minute concessions over a forthcoming EU embargo on Iranian oil, complicating the bloc’s efforts to unveil a sweeping package of sanctions against Tehran on Monday.
European diplomats are confident that EU foreign ministers will agree plans on Monday to impose a phased ban on the import of crude oil from Iran over the next few months.
But Greek brinkmanship has added an [...]
The oil market has rediscovered an old foe: Iran.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, has rallied to almost $115 a barrel as the war of words between Israel and Washington, on one side, and Tehran over its nuclear programme escalates.
Oil traders are used to brinkmanship between western countries and Iran. But three elements make the latest standoff more dangerous than at any point over the past three years. [...]
The ECB cut its growth forecast for next year to 1.6pc from 1.9pc, and to just 1.3pc in 2013 Photo: PA
German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble said there will be no more money until Grecce “actually does” what it agreed to do. “I understand that there is resistance among the Greek population to austerity measures. But in the end it is up to [...]
Budget Policy: As the economy slumps again, the administration’s already-rosy revenue projections may prove pure fantasy. Brace for more debt-ceiling brinkmanship and credit downgrades.
On the issue, Alan Greenspan was the skunk at the “Meet the Press” roundtable last Sunday. “The economy is slowing down — you can see it in all the data,” the former Fed chief said.
As a result, he added, “this deficit problem that sits out there is [...]
Key statements from Yu’s FT Op-Ed which everyone should read:
Chinese officials are understandably angry about the irresponsible brinkmanship demonstrated by their American counterparts in recent weeks. Unfortunately, anger counts for little in international finance. The danger facing the US is that after Tuesday’s debt deal any sense of urgency over a dire fiscal situation will dissipate. The danger for China is that it does not learn [...]
It was raised 18 times under Reagan, and 7 times under G W Bush.
The extension of the debt ceiling is simply an authorization to pay the debts we have already incurred, and not a time to plan or propose a new budget.
The tea party decided to take the debt ceiling vote as a hostage and as a means for extortion.
The political drama and games that ensued because of [...]
Absolutely spot-on debt ceiling commentary from Art Cashin:
Statesmen Start To Simulate Three Stooges – The goings-on in Washington are becoming a global embarrassment to its citizens.
Under the guise of working for the good of the people, both sides are engaged in barely-disguised exercises in venal politics.
The primary purpose of the posturing is to structure the “proposal” in a way that will enable the “winner” to be able to [...]
Gold surged to an all-time high of $1,594 an ounce in London, lifting silver to $39 in its train. Photo: AP
On one side of the Atlantic, the eurozone debt crisis has spread to the countries that may be too big to save – Spain and Italy – though RBS thinks a €3.5 trillion rescue fund would ensure survival of Europe’s currency union.
He’s the GOP’s chief debt ceiling negotiator. He’s also invested in a fund that will skyrocket if there’s a default
When Eric Cantor shut down debt ceiling negotiations last week, it did more than just rekindle fears that the U.S. government might soon default on its debt obligations — it also brought him closer to reaping a small financial windfall from his investment in a mutual fund [...]
Bernanke Testifies to Congress on U.S. Monetary Policy
“Markets have to deal with sources of worries across multiple time zones,” said Gijsels in an interview with CNBC.com on Thursday, reminding that President Barack Obama walked out of a meeting with Congressional leaders about raising the debt limit.
While Gijsels believes the talks will end in a deal, he said the brinkmanship adds to the list of [...]
Or maybe Tata will provoke a diplomatic crisis with Pakistan. Perhaps Nomura will find itself under siege from North Korea. These business-driven brinkmanship scenarios will seem farfetched only to executives who haven’t been paying attention. The global rise of internet commerce invites innovative interventionism by governments. Politically correct conventional wisdom argues Google and Facebook as digitally logical flashpoints for confrontation between nation-states. Alas, that wisdom is blind to bigger pictures.
Today’s networked and [...]
The huge 70%+ jump priced in soaring profits from a worldwide bailout. Now it needs to look forward to what appears to be a currency crisis in Greece that could have a domino effect. Too little time has passed since the “greatest economy ever” turned into a near total collapse.
Solidarity is needed in Europe as I don’t think that it’s just the PIIGS that are working against the Euro. I [...]