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moneynews.com Investors fearing a stock market plunge – if the United States tumbles off the “fiscal cliff” this week – may want to relax. But they should be scared if a few weeks later, Washington fails to reach a deal to increase the nation’s debt ceiling because that raises the threat of a default, another credit downgrade and a panic in the financial markets. Market strategists say that while falling off [...]  The US Conference Board’s report on the global economy is negative on all fronts. The growth is over. from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The catch-up boom in China, India, Brazil is largely over and will be followed by a drastic slowdown over the next decade, according to a grim report by America’s top forecasting body. Europe’s prognosis is even worse, with France trapped in depression with near zero growth as far as 2025 and Britain struggling [...] Every Investor And CEO Needs To See This Chart Before The Fiscal Cliff Is Hit Drawing on a similar idea, back in April, John Hussman posted this chart, which compares corporate profitability to the inverse of government and household savings (with a lag). In other words, when government and household savings decline, the red line goes up. A few months later, the blue line (corporate profits) follow nicely. Bottom line: The deficit is a major [...] Global Economic Quiet Ahead of the Post U.S. Election Storm While the media world is abuzz with last night’s Presidential debate, I’d like to cut through the noise and present you with two truly staggering facts that need to be kept in mind as the backdrop for the US Presidential Election Fact #1: EU leaders have stated point blank that they were asked to keep things quiet until after the election. Regardless of [...] Evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. consumers and the U.S. businesses are experiencing the economy very differently. Specifically, the consumer has been feeling more confident thanks to emerging bullish trends like the rebound in home prices. Meanwhile, businesses are becoming increasingly cautious as the fiscal cliff looms. Morgan Stanley just published its October read on its proprietary Business Conditions Index and it collapsed to 41% from 55% in September. “Optimism surrounding supportive monetary policy [...] by GoldCore
Eurozone Unemployment at Record Levels Gold edged down $4.00 or 0.23% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,773.30. Silver was down to a low of $34.27 and finished with a loss of 0.35%. Both gold and silver were relatively unchanged for the week. Euro [...] Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s efforts to stem capital outflows and extend her control over South America’s second-largest economy may have led to the slowest expansion in almost three years. The economy grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, down from 5.2 percent in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s the slowest growth since a 0.3 [...] Market crash ‘could hit within weeks’, warn bankers
The cost of insuring RBS bonds is now higher than before the taxpayer was forced to step in and rescue the bank in October 2008, and shows the recent dramatic downturn in sentiment among credit investors towards banks.
“The problem is a shortage of liquidity – that is what is causing the problems with the banks. It feels exactly as it felt in 2008,” [...] by Comstock Partners Global growth continues to slow. Of the major economies, the Eurozone is in the worst shape, with output dropping 0.7% in the second quarter. Even the German economy has been plodding along with a rise of only 1.1%, while business confidence declined for the 4th straight month. New orders declined by the largest amount in three years. France’s output was down 0.2% with unemployment over 10%. Leading retailers have reported [...] Is Italy Following the Footsteps of Greece? Does Italy or Germany Exit the Eurozone First? As I watch the implosion of Greece, with shops closing everywhere and GDP plunging like a rock, I cannot help but wonder if we are witnessing the start of a similar trend in Italy. To be sure, Italy has a manufacturing base that Greece does not have, but retail aspects and shop closings in Rome as compared [...] Paul Hannon The pace of economic contraction in the euro-zone picked up in July compared with the previous month as consumer and business confidence weakened amid the deepening fiscal and banking crises, according to a measure of activity compiled by the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of Italy. A monthly survey also released Friday showed consumer confidence in France, the euro zone’s second-largest economy, weakened in July, [...] July 25 (Bloomberg) — Spanish and Italian bonds rose on speculation the European Central Bank will augment the firepower of the region’s bailout fund as policy makers step up efforts to contain contagion from the debt crisis. The gain pushed Spain’s two-year note yield down from a euro-era record after ECB council memberEwald Nowotny said there are arguments in favor of giving the European Stability Mechanism a banking license. German bunds fell for [...] Engine of growth?; job creators?; Obamacare sufferers?; the sad reality is that small business in the US has just rolled over. From a slow leak higher in confidence this year, Small Business Confidence has just plunged by its largest in 24 months to its lowest level since October 2011. Seems like perfectly timed for a fall election. Source: Zerohedge Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy, Europe’s sovereign crisis and slower global growth have turned the U.S. economy into what feels like a slow-moving zombie, leaving businesses and consumers hesitant and reluctant to act. Those factors combined to hit business confidence and have led to slower activity, evident in Friday’s report showing just 80,000 new jobs created in June. That follows a sluggish 77,000 payrolls in May and 68,000 in April, making the [...] The European Commission says eurozone’s consumer and business confidence index has slipped 0.6 points in June, falling to its lowest level since October 2009. According to a press release issued by the European Commission (EC) on Thursday, eurozone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased to 89.9 in June, marking the third consecutive monthly decline of the index. The official data show the strongest declines in the two biggest eurozone economies, France and Germany, [...] Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini is once again warning of a perfect global storm in 2013.
In his latest Project Syndicate column Roubini warns of dark “financial and economic clouds” from Europe, the U.S., China and the Middle East. First, he says the eurozone crisis is worsening, the fiscal and sovereign debt crisis and the problems in its banking sector are worsening. In fact he says, eurozone might need a bailout of its banks but also a sovereign [...] Istat, the official Italian statistics body, said Italy’s manufacturing business confidence index fell to 86.2 from 89.1 in April, below a consensus forecast of 88.7. Economists warned that conditions would only worsen, with some of the tax increases introduced by Mario Montin, the prime minister, due to kick in later this year. He has vowed to implement a €20bn (£16bn) austerity plan to eliminate the deficit in the next two years. “Economic [...] via Bloomberg: Spanish bonds fell, pushing 10-year yields to the most relative to benchmark German bunds since the euro was created, as nationalized lender Bankia group said it will seek 19 billion euros ($23.9 billion) of state support. German 10-year yields were within three basis points of a record low, even as opinion polls showed greater support for Greece’s pro-bailout political parties. Italian bonds declined as business confidence fell more than economists forecast, dropping to the lowest [...] Daily Ticker Thursday brought a raft of data pointing toward a global economic slowdown, including: Markit PMI for Europe falling to 45.9 from 46.7 in April while the May German IFO business confidence hit a six-month low and the U.K. reported a steeper-than-expected drop in third-quarter GDP. Meanwhile, HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in May, the seventh-straight month below 50, the watermark for expansion or contraction. On the home front, April durable [...] From FT: Eurozone economic activity has contracted this month at the fastest pace for almost three years while German business confidence dropped sharply as the eurozone debt crisis gained significantly in intensity. The Spanish ruling party’s failure to win control in a key state election is a “serious setback” that casts doubts over the government’s ability to stick to its financial reforms, economists have warned.
Traders were alarmed by signs that Mariano Rajoy was losing popular support for his programme to reduce Spain’s burgeoning debts, without which the country may need a Greek-style bail-out. The prime minister’s PP party won 50 seats in the [...] December 21, 2011 WASHINGTON — As the fourth quarter draws to a close, a spate of unexpectedly good economic data suggests that it will have some of the fastest and strongest economic growth since the recovery started in 2009, causing a surge in the stock market and cheering economists, investors and policy makers. In recent weeks, a broad range of [...] It’s the first rise in unemployment in 2 years as the flagging economies surrounding Germany continue to have effect. via BusinessWeek: German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time in more than two years in October and manufacturing contracted as pessimism mounted among businesses in Europe’s largest economy. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline [...]
Here’s the full announcement. Click here to see the OECDS’s full presetnation > ——— 8/09/2011 – Economic recovery appears to have come close to a halt in the major industrialised economies, with falling household and business confidence affecting both world trade and employment, according to new analysis from the OECD. Growth remains strong in most emerging economies, albeit at a more moderate pace. “Growth is turning out to [...] Telegraph.co.uk Alarm bells were sounded over prospects for the British economy after growth in Britain’s dominant services sector slowed last month at its fastest pace since the 2001 foot and mouth crisis. Paul Smith, senior economist at survey compiler Markit, said there can be little doubt that the underlying growth profile of the services sector has weakened in recent months The decline in growth increased [...] by ZH More flashing red recessionary indicators are coming courtesy of the largely ignored High Yield market, which following a 5.3% decline is, as Bank of America (itself ironically contributing substantially to the blow out) says, is shaping up to be “among the worst months in the HY market’s 25 year history, in a bad company of post-Lehman, post-WorldCom, post-9/11, and post-Russia sell-offs. The difference [...] Business confidence among UK firms is falling, two surveys have suggested. The Business Trends optimism index from accountants BDO fell to 95.1 in July from 95.6 in June. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said that more employers planned to cut jobs than increase staffing levels in the third quarter. Both BDO and the CIPD said that the drop in confidence was thanks largely to a fragile manufacturing [...] By John W. Schoen Economists have been warning for months that failure to raise the federal debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash could jeopardize an already fragile recovery. Now, it’s beginning to look like the damage may have already been done. As Congress and the White House push their budget battle closer to the brink of busting the government, consumers and businesses are growing [...] |
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