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Why the streak of strong corporate earnings growth could be in serious trouble

From Charles Hugh Smith:

…If we look at corporate profits, we notice they have skyrocketed since late 2009. Can they continue this trajectory into the stratosphere?

Correlation isn’t causation, but it probably isn’t coincidence that profits rose as savings plummeted, consumer credit expanded, and the dollar weakened.

Here is another look at corporate profits. Note they shot to unprecedented levels in the 2000s as debt rose and the savings rate dropped to near-zero.

Corporate [...]

Morgan Stanley Sees QE3 Rally Lasting Hours Not Weeks

We have quite vehemently reminded readers of the dismal drop in US (and global) macro data over the past few months. These disappointing economic surprises and the ensuing global growth weakness will, Morgan Stanley believes, lead to a global policy response (rate cuts where rates can be cut and QE where they can’t) and while they expect this monetary policy to work in many important emerging economies, they are doubtful [...]

M&M MURDER: Mom of Allergic Girl Charged With Manslaughter

A Long Island woman accused of feeding M&Ms that contained traces of peanuts to her disabled and allergic 8-year-old pleaded not guilty Wednesday to an upgraded charge of second-degree murder in the child’s death.

Veronica Cirella, 31, of Plainview, was ordered held without bail in the July 23 death of her daughter, Julie, who was found only hours before she was set to be a flower girl in a [...]

When Robert Bales killed 16 Afghans, the U.S. media said his motive was: financial stress, being drunk, brain injury, marital problems, no promotion. When Muslims kill Americans, the reason is simply: primitive, hateful evil.

(updated below – Update II)

Here’s a summary of the Western media discussion of what motivated U.S. Staff Sgt. Robert Bales to allegedly kill 16 Afghans, including 9 children: he was drunk, he was experiencing financial stress, he was passed over for apromotion, he had a traumatic brain injury, he had marital problems, he suffered from the stresses of four tours of duty, he “saw his buddy’s leg blown off the day before the massacre,” etc.

Here’s a [...]

This could be the best post on taxes you’ll read all year

From Miller’s Genuine Draft:

To some on the left, the golden age of America was the 1950s. The post-war boom era saw high tax rates as well as higher rates of unionization. Some have taken this historic evidence to assert that higher tax brackets must result in a more robust economy. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and collective bargaining sympathizer frequently opines for a return to the time of housewives and [...]

This is how housing will finally recover

From ChrisMartenson.com:

It’s no secret that housing and employment are correlated, and the causation is intuitive. If more people have jobs, then more people have incomes that support the purchase of a home. In the other direction, the more houses that are built to meet rising demand, the more jobs will be created in construction and real estate.

We can see the correlation in this chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve [...]

Charles SmithIn: In this manipulated market, the reckless have nothing to lose, while the prudent cannot possibly assess the real risk or price of assets and debt. The grand irony is that in attempting to “save” the housing market by suppressing mortgage rates and the market’s discovery of the price of homes, debt, and risk, the Fed has systemically crippled the housing market

Headwinds for Housing

from ChrisMartenson.com contributor Charles Hugh Smith

It’s no secret that housing and employment are correlated, and the causation is intuitive. If more people have jobs, then more people have incomes that support the purchase of a home. In the other direction, the more houses that are built to meet rising demand, the more jobs will be created in construction and real estate.

We can see the correlation in this chart from [...]

What’s Lost With the Demise of the Euro? Only What Was Unsustainable

by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

What’s Lost With the Demise of the Euro? Only What Was Unsustainable

Scaremongering aside, the demise of the euro does not end European integration. It only means that which is unsustainable has been relinquished and a return to stability is finally possible.

So the euro is doomed. Toast. History. This will lead to:

1. the end of civilization

2. the end of European integration

3. the start of new [...]

Understand History To Understand The Current Markets

Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
Aug 21, 2011

Every professional has their own method of analyzing markets, finance and economies, and some do well coming up with the direction of social and political issues as well. The other 97% miss one-half to two-thirds of the time. That is not very good and one asks why? The answer is simple they really haven’t studied history as well as they should [...]

When Keynesian Correlation Is Causation: Krugman’s Contrived Climatic Conundrum

From John Lohman

Forget high unemployment, hyperinflationary central bank policies,  competitive devaluations, and all those useless demographic and political factors that go into the Shoe Thrower’s Index.  In what can only be described as a moment of pure Keynesian genius, Paul Krugman concludes that the primary reason for the surge in food riots is…global warming.

Perhaps he’s right.   In order to put an end to these pesky riots and [...]