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This is on CNN, no less: Stocks have had a stellar year so far. In fact, the rally has gotten so heated that some investors are making bets on a big crash. Universa Investments, which spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year buying crash protection, has attracted a record amount of money into its fund this quarter. “People are starting to recognize that these market moves are unnatural and distorted,” said Universa [...] From BullionVault Gold News: Some things to remember amid the volatility of the gold price… WHEN VOLATILITY prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets, writes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. But because gold is unlike any other commodity, many perspectives can be extreme, such as “goldenfreudes” who take pleasure in gold bugs’ pain. I continue [...] From ETF Trends: Risk and returns often go hand-in-hand, and income hunters who are willing to stomach a little more risk can look overseas for attractive dividends in globally focused exchange traded funds. With the Federal Reserve depressing yields on U.S. government bonds, investors have branched out to riskier investments for yields. [Surveying the Dividend ETF Landscape] “What we have is money that had typically gone to fixed income now coming into equities,” [...] REITS trigger FED warning as American Capital buys $100 billion of mortgages REITs bought more than $100 billion of government-backed mortgage securities in 2012, the most since at least the credit crisis, and will purchase another $60 billion in 2013, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated this month. Fed Governor Jeremy Stein pointed to the expansion of mortgage REITs, which have amassed almost $400 billion of the debt, during a speech last [...] George Soros made almost $1 billion since November from bets that the yen would tumble, according to a person close to the billionaire’s $24 billion family office. The Japanese wager helped the firm return about 10 percent last year and 5 percent so far this year, said the person, who asked not to be named because the firm is private. The yen has weakened 17 percent versus the dollar since about the [...] From Bloomberg: Bridgewater Associates LP, the $140 billion hedge fund founded by Ray Dalio, is betting on global stocks and oil as it expects money to move into equities and other assets amid increased economic confidence. From Bloomberg: Investor Jim Rogers joined Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, in warning that a rout that sent Treasurys to their biggest loss last month in almost a year probably isn’t over. The list of bond bears is growing after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Capital Management Inc. also voiced concern. While unemployment rose in January, Labor Department revisions showed job gains at the end of last [...] acting-man.com / By Pater Tenebrarum / January 15, 2013 Hedge Funds Go ‘All In’ Bloomberg reports that hedge fund leverage has just reached a nine year high, wile margin debt has climbed to a four year high – as hedge funds and others try to ‘catch up’ after largely missing out on the market’s gains last year (actually, ‘the market’ hasn’t had any gains since early April of 2011 – only certain stocks with a [...] by GoldCore Gold Bullion Today’s AM fix was USD 1,669.50, EUR 1,258.29 and GBP 1,036.25 per ounce. Silver is trading at $30.68/oz, €23.24/oz and £19.12/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,629.00/oz, palladium at $694.00/oz and rhodium at $1,150/oz. Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg) It’s a central bankers’ world, and we’re all just living in it. Entities such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in 2012 took control of global economies like never before. Based on current market and economic behavior it’s likely to be years before anything changes. After all, how can central banks take their foot off the stimulus pedal when there’s so much at stake? In all, 13 other central banks [...] In the midst of a 2 month price consolidation for both gold and silver, US Mint gold and silver eagle sales exploded in November, coming in a 3,159,500 oz of ASE’s, the 3rd highest monthly total for 2012, and 136,500 oz of AGE’s, by far the highest monthly gold sales for the US Mint for 2012. … The 136,500 oz gold eagle sales total was nearly triple the October sales total of 59,000, and was up an astonishing [...]  Worried About ‘Fiscal Cliff’? Look Out for ‘Income Cliff’ from CNBC: While everyone wonders whether we’re about to go over the “fiscal cliff,” owners of dividend-paying stocks are bracing for what some are calling an “income cliff.” Those who have been counting on dividends as income — often retirees but also higher-end retail investors — could see their tax burden nearly triple if the worst of the “fiscal cliff” is realized. That will happen [...] Mac Slavo
When global freight transportation collapsed to record lows in July of this year most analysts wrote it off as an anomaly. In September, when one of the largest retail shipping companies in the world warned of weakening global economic conditions and announced they would slash thousands of jobs, financial markets barely even noticed. Last week, Google, the largest small business advertising platform on the internet, announced a 21% decline in revenue per [...] If global economy is going to get slower, would investors be willing to take on more risk?
Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels: ’We have a global economy that has entered what I call the twilight zone’ Services industries from Asia to Europe cooled last month after the euro-area debt crisis pulled economies including Spain and Italy into recession and damped global growth prospects. The purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in [...] Weakening demand is forcing new and accelerated cost reductions at companies fromBank of America Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) to Staples Inc. (SPLS) andEastman Kodak Co. (EKDKQ), dimming the outlook for an already struggling U.S. labor market. Even as consumer confidence and housing show signs of recovering, sales for businesses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier in July through September, the second consecutive quarterly drop and biggest decline since 2009, [...] U.S. stocks extended their worst weekly decline since June, while the dollar and Treasuries rose, as reports showed weakening economic growth. Gasoline surged on concern about tighter supplies in the U.S. East Coast. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.4 percent to 1,440.91 at 2:32 p.m. in New York and is down 1.3 percent this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 1.2 percent and has tumbled 2.7 percent in five days. Ten-year Treasury yields fell [...] Renewed jitters over Europe, growing fears about China and the U.S’s precarious fiscal situation all bode poorly for the recent stock rally, which could correct as much as 25 percent in the coming months, an investment manager said Wednesday. Market participants often refer to unanticipated occurences that rock the global economy as “black swans“. Yet Stanley Crouch, chief investment officer at Aegis Capital, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” that a “freckled swan” [...] China’s stocks rose the most in almost three weeks on speculation the government will accelerate measures to bolster the equities market after the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell below the 2,000 level yesterday. Beijing Toread Outdoor Products Co. paced an advance for companies on the smallcap ChiNext index after the China Securities Journal reported major stockholders offered to extend the period for when they must hold their shares to avoid oversupply. [...] European stocks slid the most in a week after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia PresidentCharles Plosser said that the third round of bond buying may fail to stimulate growth or hiring. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares fell. Anglo American Plc (AAL) lost 2.5 percent, contributing the most to a decline by a gauge of mining companies, after saying that it plans to reduce its production of coal. BHP Billiton Ltd. [...] by GoldCore
“Do You Own Gold?” Ray Dalio at CFR: “Oh Yeah, I Do” Gold climbed $4.70 or 0.27% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,773.10. Silver hit a high of $35.16 in New York on Friday, but it still finished with a loss of 0.29%. On the [...] The emerging debate over the health of China’s economy demonstrates how the world’s second largest economy is actually more competitive than the U.S., well-known hedge fund manager Ray Dalio told CNBC Friday. The founder and co-chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, likened China to Japan in its economic heyday. “Years past in Japan when it was going strong, they called a recession anything less than 3 percent [...]
Worth Watching the Entire Conversation. Ray Dalio’s conversation on Gold starts @ 45:33 in
Welcome to Capital Account. The jobs report released today reiterates a grim situation for millions of unemployed Americans. The jobs number was below expectations again: the economy added 96,000 jobs while analysts expected 130,000. The unemployment rate fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, however this drop is most likely due to a fall in the labor force participation rate. Meanwhile stock markets appear more than eager to grasp the hand of [...] From Bloomberg: Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said lower-than-forecast U.S. employment growth will move the Federal Reserve closer to more quantitative easing. Policy makers will give “strong hints” or provide “positive action” at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. The Fed will likely ease further through “open-ended” purchases [...] Confused by the implications of Draghi’s pre-leaked speech? Don’t worry, you are not alone. As the following sampling of opinions by Wall Street experts via Reuters confirms, opinions range from the positive to the negative, to the completely clueless. IOAN SMITH, STRATEGIST, KNIGHT CAPITAL “With regards to seniority this point is important. Pari passu will not apply to existing SMP holdings which suggest dealing with Greece remains a problem. A precedent was [...] by GoldCore Today’s AM fix was USD 1,689.50, EUR 1,349.23, and GBP 1,065.26 per ounce. Silver is trading at $32.18/oz, €25.73/oz and £20.32/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,563.50/oz, palladium at $636.50/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz. Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg) Gold edged up $3.50 or 0.21% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,695.30. Silver rose to $32.27 in Asia, slipped to [...] From The Big Picture: The Wall Street Journal: “‘This is the most disrespected rally I’ve ever seen,’ says John Buckingham, who manages about $100 million in two equity funds as chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management in Aliso Viejo, Calif. Bill Gross’ latest message to investors – don’t put your money into Europe because they are not going to get out of their debt crisis any time soon. Gross, Founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Pimco, manager of the world’s largest bond fund, wrote in an editorial in the Financial Times on Monday that the ultimate aim of European leaders is to get their hands on private-sector money because they know [...] July 31, 2012, 3:03 PM Bill Gross: We’re Witnessing the Death of Equities By Steven Russolillo The bond king says stocks are dead. Bill Gross, Pimco’s co-founder and co-chief investment officer, says stock investors should think again about the age-old “buy-and-hold” investing mantra. He says consistent, annual returns are a thing of the past. “The cult of equity is dying,” Bill Gross wrote in his August Investment Outlook. “Like a once bright green aspen turning [...] Dismal U.S. corporate outlooks and worries about slower worldwide growth have pushed Q3 earnings estimates into negative territory, which, if they hold true, would mean that earnings for S&P 500 companies would fall 0.1% Y/Y, a sharp revision from earlier forecasts of 3.1% growth and the first decline in three years. via CNBC: It’s ugly out there and it could get worse. Dismal U.S. corporate outlooksand worries about slower worldwide growth have pushed [...] In case you missed it, the New York Times featured a story over the weekend on Dow 20,000.
The article refers to a new research note from Seth Masters, Chief Investment Officer of Bernstein Global Wealth Management. Needless to say, Masters makes a bullish case. And the fact that it’s in a print publication has the contrarians wary. David Rosenberg, the bearish strategist over at Gluskin Sheff, wrote about it this morning. “[F]rom what history teaches us, secular bear [...] The U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate held steady at 8.2 percent, reflecting continued slow growth in the economy with the presidential election just four months away. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said private payrolls increased 84,000, while the government lost 4,000 jobs. Economists expected job growth of about 100,000 and the unemployment rate to be unchanged, though many had increased their forecasts based on [...] |
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