Goldman Is Selling The Last Of Its Stake In A Chinese Bank, And Communist Officials Are Probably Pretty Annoyed
Goldman Sachs bought a stake in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China before it was cool — before it had the 2nd largest IPO in the history of the world in 2006, and before it was the largest bank in the world by market cap.
Initially, Goldman owned 4.9% of the bank, whose stock is [...]
U.S. wholesale prices fall sharply in April
U.S. wholesale prices sank in April for the second straight month as the cost of gasoline and vegetables fell sharply.
The producer-price index declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% to mark the biggest drop in more than three years, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted a 0.7% decrease in April, following a 0.6% decline in March.
India: Inflation drops to [...]
EU forecasts 2013 French slide into recession
The European Commission published its highly anticipated spring forecasts on Friday, predicting a French slide into recession this year, with its economy projected to shrink by 0.1 percent.
Euro Unemployment Just Hit A Brand New Record High
This is a devastating chart.
Eurozone unemployment hits a brand new high of 12.1%.
Click the chart to enlarge.
Portugal to cut thousands of government jobsPrime minister announces plans to make $6.3bn [...]
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,472.50, EUR 1,125.51 and GBP 947.80 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,462.25, EUR 1,123.43 and GBP 947.79 per ounce.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $7.00 or 0.48% Friday to $1,467.30/oz and silver finished down 1.65%. Gold and silver both gained for the week at 4.74% and 3.11%, respectively.
Gold rose another 1% overnight in Asia, consolidating on last week’s 4% gain.
Gold in USD, 1 [...]
Last minute comments
After the deadline for this GEAB number last Saturday evening, our team has closely watched the unusual coincidence of all the market indicators’ collapsing: European, American and Asian stock exchanges, raw materials… and even and especially gold. Unfortunately we don’t have time to expand on this event but, anyway, we interpret it in line with everything we have written in this number. But where this number describes things [...]
CIBC’s Matt Gibson Sees Upside in Ironin 2013
Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report (12/17/12)
Investors who want to play in the iron and copper space should look to small-cap producers for attractive valuations and lower risk, says Matt Gibson, institutional research analyst with CIBC World Markets. In this Gold Report interview, he says he believes iron has found its floor in 2012 and names iron ore and copper companies with [...]
The debtors’ merry-go-round - Interactive overview of debt in the world’s biggest economies
China’s Economy “Bottoming Out”? – Not So Fast!
While China’s equity index continues to plumb new depths, the macro data of the past two weeks has been the crutch for US equity bulls losing faith in the fiscal cliff negotiations - growth is up, investment is up, and inflation is down – with analysts hailing the news as evidence that the [...]
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday surprised by lowering its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.25%, citing a weakening global economic outlook, uncertainty over Chinese growth and a “somewhat” softened domestic labor market. The rate cut, which takes effect Wednesday, is the RBA’s third since May, with the total reduction in the benchmark cash rate target amounting to one percentage point since [...]
3 Things US Politicians Need To Know About China
Patrick Chovanec, An American Perspective From China |
This weekend, I was quoted in The Weekly Standard about what Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan need to know about what is happening in China. It begins by noting that Paul Ryan, Romney’s surprise VP pick, came out swinging the other day on President Obama’s handling of China:
“Free trade is a powerful tool for peace and prosperity, but our trading partners need to play by [...]
BEIJING – China’s June trade growth decelerated sharply in a new sign of a deepening slowdown in the world’s second-
Import growth fell by half from May’s level to 6.3 percent, customs data showed Tuesday, reflecting weak consumer and
industrial demand despite two interest rate cuts and other stimulus measures. Export growth declined to 11.3 percent
from May’s 15.3 percent amid European and U.S. economic weakness.
China’s economic growth has fallen to its lowest level [...]
From Economic Policy Journal:
I was among the first warning about problems developing in China’s economy. I even asked the bastard, war criminal, Henry Kissinger about it, when I ran into him last year. The data coming out are now making it pretty obvious that the Chinese economy is in decline. However, I suspect few realize how bad the downturn in China will be.
A large part of Chinese “growth” was centrally [...]
China’s slowdown may deepen as policy makers unwind the excesses of a record credit boom while gradually stepping up stimulus, leaving 2012 growth at the weakest in 13 years, Pacific Investment Management Co. says.
“The economy is unlikely to bottom until the third quarter,” Ramin Toloui, Pimco’s global co-head of emerging markets portfolio management in Singapore, said in e-mailed comments yesterday. “Policy makers will progressively turn the dial toward more stimulus, [...]
Via Michael Pettis of China Financial Markets,
In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of them so far have turned out quite well.
As more and [...]
From Zero Hedge:
Hugh Hendry is back with a bang after a two year hiatus with what so many have been clamoring for, for so long – another must read letter from one of the true (if completely unsung) visionary investors of our time: “I have not written to you at any great length since the winter of 2010. This is largely because not much has happened to change our views. [...]
China is best known as the world’s export driver as the hopes of every exporting nation in the world are pinned on the eventual transition of the economy to domestic consumption and hence greater imports. While China has contributed most to Global GDP growth in the past few years, some argue that this growth is not as ‘helpful’ as US growth to other countries – since China does not [...]
The release of February’s economic data confirmed that Chinese growth is slowing down. Consumer inflation fell to 3.2 per cent last month, the lowest since June 2010. Weaker industrial production, retail sales and export data all support the same pattern. China’s days of double digit growth are, at least for this century, probably over. The data releases following a “forecast” from outgoing premier Wen Jiabao that gross domestic production [...]
Yesterday when We Discussed the surprising non-cut in the Australia cash rate, we asked “is China re-exporting the lagging US inflation it imported over 2011? ” and said that “It means that Chinese inflation continues to be far higher than what is represented… and wonder: did the RBA just catch the PBOC lying about its subdued inflation?” Lastly, we concluded: “Furthermore, the PBOC did 26 billion yuan in repos, meaning it is set to [...]
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
CHICAGO — The outlook for the Chinese economy is cloudier than it has been in years, experts said.
The road ahead for China is the “great unanswerable question,” said Lawrence Summers, the former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, in a speech at the American Economic Association meeting Saturday.
“Whatever you think the range of possible outcomes is [for China] over the next 25 years, [...]
Hedge fund manager James Chanos, who has been a long-time skeptic on the Chinese growth story, is sticking with his gloomy view of ratings agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, saying their rosy outlook on China’s debt only bolsters his bearish bet.
The famed short-seller said he’s puzzled by the readiness of S&P, a division of McGraw-Hill Cos., to downgrade the sovereign debt of countries like the United States and [...]
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets
For years I have been arguing that the Achilles heel of the Chinese growth model is the unsustainable rise in debt that comes as a necessary consequence of capital misallocation fueled by bank lending. Capital misallocation, I argued, was the nearly inevitable consequence of high investment growth over many years in a system in which price signals are severely distorted and there is political incentive to maximize [...]
The Chinese government will boost its stakes in the country’s largest banks, as it attempts to shore up slumping financial stocks and to restore investor confidence.
Central Huijin, the domestic arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, will purchase shares in Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the official Xinhua news agency announced on Monday. Xinhua [...]
Over the past week one of the more hotly debated and market moving topics was the resurgence of speculation that China may be on the verge of a “hard landing.” To a large extent this was driven by renewed concerns that the country’s debt load, especially at the local government level, will be a substantially greater hindrance to growth and hence, concern than previously [...]
Marc Faber: China Bubble Crash Poses a Huge Global Risk
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Aug 04, 2011 – 01:48 AM
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarc Faber was interviewed on CNBC yesterday. He had some interesting thoughts on China, geopolitical trends, gold, equities, bonds and cash. See below for the video and summary.
Disappointing growth (or a crash) in China is a huge risk for the global economy.
“If Chinese growth really slows down or if they have a crash… it could trigger a vicious circle on the downside and I would say there is a fairly good chance that this could happen,” Marc Faber, managing director, editor and publisher at The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told CNBC. “This would be really something the world’s central bankers wouldn’t be able to [...]
Note: With so much going on with Europe’s debt crisis, the continuing disaster and economic contraction in Japan, and the potential for a very hard landing in the Chinese growth miracle (which is in the running as my favorite “black swan candidate” for 2011), I am going to return our attention to oil in this report. The next report will assess the developing and unfolding [...]
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, every economic boom has been followed by an economic bust. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Over the past 20 years, China has experienced the greatest economic boom in history. It is only a matter of time before the great Chinese bubble pops.
China’s economic model is based on export-led growth. That model is now even more [...]
A Siemens employee uses a machine to inspect a gas turbine propeller for use in power plants, at the company’s factory in Berlin. Photographer: Michele Tantussi/Bloomberg
Germany is bettering its European rivals in the race to harness Chinese growth as exports to the Asian nation begin to outstrip those to the U.S.
With its consumers and companies sating their appetite for power turbines, cars and electronics, China became Germany’s largest [...]
Full JPM note:
WTI futures prices made fresh 2 ½ year today, as positive economic data from China and renewed Middle East tensions bolstered prices. In a pattern that has become all too familiar in recent months, foreign governments called for their nationals to leave Yemen ahead of any potential deterioration in the security situation there. Yet despite this and other challenges that beset the [...]
The dollar is descending; oil is not ascending. The oil/dollar exchange rate is being reset because of continual massive dollar debasement. The purchasing power(versus nominal dollar price) of oil in terms of wheat, soybeans, iron ore, copper and gold has not increased and against some globally traded commodities has decreased over the past 12 months.
by Stephen Leeb, SA
Oil Under Pressure as Demand Ramps Up