Fairly soon (within next two years?), when yuan swap lines are in place at all major currency trading centers, China will announce that all Government restrictions on the on/offshore ownership of yuan (and Chinese government bonds) are removed.
At that point the US t-bond market will implode, as the yuan takes over from the USD as the world’s reserve currency.
Switzerland Will Join Race to Be Trading Hub for China’s Yuan
Switzerland plans [...]
China had its largest trade deficit since at least 1989 last month as Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil damped exports and imports rebounded after a weeklong holiday.
The shortfall was $31.5 billion, the customs bureau said yesterday. Imports rose 39.6 percent from a year earlier, after a 15.3 percent slump in January, while exports increased 18.4 percent, the bureau said. Data in the first two months are distorted by the timing of [...]
Growth in China’s exports slowed in December because of sluggish demand from the US and Europe.
Exports rose by 13.4% from a year earlier, the customs agency said, down from 13.8% in November.
Import growth also slowed, rising 11.8% compared with the previous year, much lower than the 22.1% growth in November.
The latest figures could fuel worries that the world’s second largest economy is losing steam.
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan [...]
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said business conditions may be “relatively difficult” this quarter and monetary policy will be fine-tuned as needed.
“We see downside pressure on our economy and elevated inflation at the same time,” Wen said during a two-day trip to Hunan province, according to a statement on the government’s website yesterday. “We also face problems of weakening external demand and rising costs for companies.”
Economists at Barclays Capital and [...]
Bloomberg headlines confirm the Chinese export-led growth dynamo is growing dimmer by the day:
CHINA’S `NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC’ ABOUT EXPORTS IN 2012, CHEN SAYS
CHINA’S TRADE GROWTH MARGIN DECLINED IN DECEMBER, CHEN SAYS
CHINA EXPORTS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER IN EACH MONTH OF 4Q
CHINA 2011 IMPORT GROWTH RATE 5 PCT POINTS HIGHER THAN EXPORTS
CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTER CHEN DEMING SPEAKS AT GENEVA BRIEFING
Translation: the next several Chinese monthly surplus reports will not be pretty, [...]