Headline GDP better than expected (but ugly underneath); claims weak (moar QE); pending home sales (beat – confirmation bias). All is well, right? Stocks surged up to their highs of the day and Pisani proclaimed a deal is close (apparently). And then, one politician uttered those terrifying words:
REP. VAN HOLLEN SAYS ON MSNBC `WE’RE NOT CLOSE TO A DEAL’
and stocks dive almost instantaneously on large volume (even as most [...]
Why The Real Earnings Picture Is Bad And Getting Worse
Listening to the incessant chatter of confirmation bias from CNBC, you could be forgiven for thinking that earnings are ‘not that bad’. Headline-makers like AMZN, GOOG, and AAPL scare for a few moments but we are reassured back to numb BTFD-land by some disingenuous analyst (or worse a PM) who says he is buying with both hands and feet. The misleadingly top-down [...]
The well-known statistics on American obesity were anecdotally confirmed for me on a recent layover in Canada, when I was struck once again by how easy it is to tell Canadians from Americans. Those who headed for the “American passport holders” line looked lumpy in all the wrong places. Those who headed for the “Canadian passport holders” line, on the other hand, were of a very different breed. One might hazard to [...]
From The Big Picture:
“For the economy and financial markets, the stakes in the coming presidential election are vastly lower than nearly everyone is making them out to be.”
-Mike Santoli, Barron’s
Earlier this month, I was on a cruise in the Baltic Sea with Forbes where I gave a presentation on Behavioral Economics & Neurofinance.
Prior to that event, we were having dinner onboard with a table of HNW investors. One of the women at the [...]
by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
What If the Consensus Is Wrong?
We all know the mainstream consensus is wrong, but what about the non-mainstream consensus? Maybe it’s equally misguided.
There are a variety of consensus views floating around the Mainstream Media and the blogosphere. The two sets of consensus don’t align on much, as might be expected: the financial MSM is still spouting the Federal Reserve/Wall Street’s [...]
I know some of you think Mother Jones magazine is a “liberal” publication. However, I think this is an interesting article (admittedly written from that slant, but also poking fun at some liberals with it’s mention of Whole Foods and vaccine-autism link believers) about why we as human beings tend to deny any facts that don’t fit with our line of thinking. It happens to [...]
While US stock futures continue to be obstinately high capitalizing on the last remaining shreds of a confirmation bias out of formerly strong European economy from the time when the EUR was still low, and with the US economy failing to pick up the world slack even with the dollar at 4 month high the hangover sure to set in any minute (and the [...]
Charlie Munger ( Warren Buffett’s partner ) and others list our natural weaknesses: We have a confirmation bias; in that we pick out evidence that supports our views. We are cognitive misers; in that we try to ” think for ourselves ” as little as possible. We are herd thinkers for the most part and conform our perceptions to fit in with ” group ” !
But, in general, the culture [...]