MORE PAIN: California’s Insane Gas Prices Just Hit A New All-Time High

The average price of gasoline in California is $4.671 per gallon, up from $4.668 yesterday.  This is according to the latest data from AAA’s Fuel Gauge Report.

 

This is a new all-time high.

California’s gas supply has been squeezed by refinery outages, which are slowing coming back online.

However, analysts point to the deceleration in th price increases as a welcome sign that the worst may soon be over.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/california-gas-prices-all-time-high-2012-10#ixzz28oNaUBFD

Tonight’s Chinese Manufacturing Report Could Take The Legs Out Of This Rally

Despite the deceleration in the Chinese economy, it is still looked to as an engine of growth for the global economy.

Further deterioration in its manufacturing sector would certainly come as a blow to markets.

Unfortunately, massive stimulus looks increasingly unlikely.

The PMI reports are considered one of the more reliable economic indicators out of China. And those watching how the Chinese economic slowdown plays out will be watching this evening’s HSBC Flash PMI number very closely.  This is the preliminary [...]

Chinese President Hu Jintao Makes A Stark Acknowledgment Of The ‘Notable Downward Pressure’ Threatening The Economy

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — Chinese President Hu Jintao said a slowdown in exports is putting downward pressure on the world’s second-biggest economy, and he pledged to boost domestic demand and promote more balanced growth.

“Economic growth is facing notable downward pressure, some small and medium enterprises are facing a hard time and exporters are facing more difficulties,” Hu said today at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit in Vladivostok, Russia. “We have an [...]

China Manufacturing Teeters Close To Contraction

From Bloomberg:

China’s manufacturing teetered on the edge of contraction in July, signaling a rebound in economic growth has yet to take hold.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index unexpectedly fell to 50.1 in July from 50.2 in June. The reading today from the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was the weakest in eight months and compares with the 50.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A [...]

Spain’s recession is getting worse

The third quarter decline in a row

The drastic austerity measures the government and the mass unemployment push deeper into recession in Spain. The gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of the previous quarter. This was announced by the Spanish Statistics Office. Even in the two previous quarters, there had been a decline of 0.3 percent.

In comparison, the intensification of the crisis is even more clear: According to [...]

Weakest Pace Since 2009: China Slowdown Cuts Luxury Spending, Hong Kong Retailing

China’s slowdown dragged Hong Kong’s retail-sales growth to the weakest pace since 2009 as shoppers visiting from the mainland cut back on purchases of luxury goods such as jewelry and watches.

Sales increased 8.8 percent in May from a year earlier to HK$36 billion ($4.6 billion), the government said on its website yesterday. That was the smallest gain since September 2009, excluding seasonal distortions each January and February.

The deceleration of Asia’s [...]

It Is Clear Now That China Is Headed For A Hard Landing

China surprised economists today with a surprise cut in interest rates by a quarter point, the first cut in rates since 2008.

 

“Just a couple of months ago, few analysts had forecast that Beijing would cut rates, believing that China was on track for a “soft landing”. But after growth slowed to 8.1 per cent in the first quarter, recent data showed the economy was on track for a sharp deceleration.

With the cut, China’s benchmark [...]

3rd time is the charm? Stock market soars because they think Ben Bernanke is going to print more money

I find this to be especially true in New England. It seems that people put so much faith in others because they think they are smart or they went to the “right” college when they were a pimple faced teenager.

We act like only a scholar that went to Harvard can figure out to solve the financial crises we are in. When in reality, this dumb fuck is just printing worthless [...]

Don’t mean to be apocalyptic, but I get a fair value of about $20 for Facebook. And, really, could be much lower

Thank goodness that’s over.

 

The Facebook IPO could have been a major disaster for millions of individual investors.

If the stock had “popped” to a truly ludicrous level on IPO day, millions of investors would likely have piled into it, hoping for further gains.

And then, eventually, the hype would have faded, and these investors would have gotten creamed as the stock fell back to a more reasonable price.

As it was, Facebook’s IPO price was not truly [...]

SocGen: This Chinese Indicator Will Predict A Hard Landing. It Came In Horrible In April.

Mamta Badkar
Business Insider

 

After some disappointing data out of China, talks of a Chinese hard landing are back full force.

 

But there’s one economic indicator that Chinese hard/soft/bumpy landing watchers should be looking at according to Societe General analyst Wei Yao.

Wei says import data, which is subject to less statistical adjustments and can be easily cross-checked with its trading partners, is a crucial indicator because China’s “import demand centers on investments“. And remember Chinese imports [...]

Risk OFF: Investors flee to Treasurys… and gold… Ten-year yields crashed to all-time closing lows, and gold surged by its most in four months

Now its getting interesting. 30Y yields fell the most in 5 months today back to 5 month lows, 10Y yields crashed to all-time closing lows, and Gold surged by its most in 4 months (and 2nd most in 7 months) as stocks started to accelerate lower. Gold is unch on the week now as 30Y is -21bps and 10Y -14bps to 1 1.69% handle – incredible. Between the Philly Fed’s [...]

Chinese Banks’ Forex Sales May Indicate Capital Outflows – Bloomberg

From Bloomberg:

China’s central bank and commercial lenders sold more foreign currency than they bought for the first month this year in April, indicating capital may have flowed out of the world’s second-biggest economy.

Chinese banks sold a net 60.6 billion yuan ($9.59 billion) of foreign currency in April, according to calculations based on preliminary data released by the People’s Bank of China yesterday. That compares with 124.6 billion yuan of net purchases in March.

The government [...]

What you need to know about the coming “fiscal cliff”

From Pragmatic Capitalism:

In addition to the economic slowdown, the continued housing crisis, the endless turmoil in Europe, and the deceleration in China and India, we are moving closer to the period where the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ will become more of a threat to the market.

The fiscal cliff refers to the near-simultaneous January 2013 expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the payroll tax cuts, emergency unemployment benefits, and the sequester established in [...]

THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Decentralized Solar and Wind Energy Systems: The Ultimate Solution

Without energy, nothing can happen in this world. Energy sources and energy delivery systems are enormously critical. To create a vibrant, prosperous and recession-free economy, we must use homegrown renewable energy sources and technologies that cause no negative environmental effect and are cost free for the consumer (once the system is paid for).

 

Also, energy delivery systems must be decentralized, except in  densely  populated  areas  with  many  high-rise  buildings where space [...]

Consumer Credit Decelerates Most Since Feb 2011: Revolving credit has now contracted for 2 months in a row – as the consumer deleveraging ramps up again following the holiday shopping season…

With expectations of a $12.0bn rise in Consumer Credit, yet another market ’economic’ indicator flashes orange as the Seasonally Adjusted number comes in at $8.735bn – the largest miss from expectations in 6 months. Furthermore, using the Non-Seasonally Adjusted data, this is the largest sequential drop in 12 months (since the Feb 2011 plunge). While non-revolving debt managed to increase (though at a considerably lower pace) for the second month in a row thedeleveraging [...]

Why the long decline in natural gas could finally be bottoming

From The Stock Sage:

This morning, I came across an interesting slide from Ultra Petroleum’s ($UPL) latest investor presentation at the Howard Weil Energy Conference…

F&D cost stands for “finding and development cost,” which means that UPL’s average cost to find and develop its natural gas resources stands at roughly $1.60/Mcfe of gas. Moreover, UPL is one of the lowest-cost operators in the natural gas E&P industry, however, its all-in cost ($2.88/Mcfe) [...]

Chinese economy slows more than expected – FT

From FT:

 

China’s economy appears to be slowing more than expected and is likely to decelerate further in the coming months, prompting Beijing to consider fresh measures to boost waning growth.

Consumer inflation in China increased 3.2 per cent from a year ago in February, down from 4.5 per cent in January and the slowest pace since June 2010, according to government data released on Friday.

More video

With stubbornly high inflation now apparently under control, [...]

This indicator could be warning of new trouble for the job market

From Financial Armageddon:

If recent history is any guide, a notable deceleration in the pace of U.S. retail spending following a period of strong gains signals trouble ahead for the jobs market.

As the chart shows, each time monthly retail sales growth has risen above 8.5% and subsequently reversed course (by roughly two percentage points or so), the turnaround has preceded a peak in year-on-year increases in total nonfarm payrolls.

Whether it reflects [...]

Bank Of America On US Decoupling: Enjoy It While It Lasts

BAML Economics: The odd decouple, Neil Dutta

Over the last several weeks, US economic data has almost uniformly surprised to the upside. The employment report is a case in point. In December payrolls rose by 200,000, the unemployment rate ticked lower, and the work week ticked higher. Against this firmer growth backdrop, we are marking to market our Q4 GDP forecast to 3.5% from an initial forecast of 3.0%. Roughly one-third [...]

India’s gold and silver imports jump 80% to $31.1bn over six months

Volatility in share markets in India have seen investors switching over to less risky assets like bonds and mutual funds, with a flood of money also pouring into precious metals.

Author: Shivom Seth
Posted:  Friday , 21 Oct 2011

 

MUMBAI -

Investors in India appear to be moving out of cash and into gold and silver. As poorly performing equities hit valuations, analysts and traders insist there is an acceleration [...]

China growth slows to 2-year low

(Reuters) – China’s economic expansion slowed in the third quarter to its weakest pace in more than two years as euro-debt strains and a sluggish U.S. economy took a toll, but healthy domestic drivers suggest little room to relax monetary policy near term.

GDP grew 9.1 percent from a year earlier, the third consecutive quarterly slowdown in growth after 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first.

In [...]

After a two-year rebound, recession risks rise (fears of a double dip no longer a fringe view)

The U.S. economy has officially been out of recession for two years, but fear of falling back into the abyss has dogged the recovery every step of the way.

Now, the prospect of recession no longer is a fringe view.

“Recession is not inevitable, but I think there’s better than a 50-50 chance now,” said Bill Gross, the respected investment chief at bond fund giant Pimco in [...]

Snake Oil Economics

by Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities

Snake Oil Economics

The world’s biggest, richest, most comprehensive statistical agency has just announced significant revisions to the mainstream economists’ bellwether number – GDP – and not just over the period of the last eight years, but for the last couple of quarters, too, we have seen a substantial alteration in the picture being painted (not that we have any grounds [...]

Economy Expected to Have Major Slide in Months Ahead

By: Motokoa Rich
The New York Times

Two months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in [...]

Brent Donnelly: Mr. Bernanke: You are trapped!

From Nomura’s Brent Donnelly

Mr. Bernanke: You are trapped!

The way the data and psychology has turned down just as QE2 is ending is no coincidence – just like it was no coincidence when the same thing happened at the end of QE1. To use the Fed Chairman’s preferred term these days – the impact of QE is transitory. Much like fiscal stimulus, QE has a temporary [...]

US data chief warns on employment – “Probably the most notable thing about [the jobs report] is there isn’t anything notable about it,” said Keith Hall, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

From FT:

Bad US payrolls data for May appear to reflect a “general weakening in job growth” rather than any temporary distortion, the head of the agency that compiles the statistics said in an interview with the Financial Times.

“Probably the most notable thing about [the jobs report] is there isn’t anything notable about it,” said Keith Hall, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The US added [...]

Case Shiller data is out, and it is as horrible as ever

by ZH

The Home Price Index came at 140.86 compared to 142.42 previously. Basically the double dip refuses to stop, and that even despite yesterday’s “stunning”(ly irrelevant) pending home sales number.“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard &  Poor’s. [...]

Karl Denniger: “Nobody went to jail, and as a consequence the behavior that is at the root of the problems we face has not changed.”

by Karl Denniger

Hmmmm…

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, [...]

GDP: Nothing Is Ever As It Seems

This article originally appeared on The Daily Capitalist

The revised real GDP numbers for Q4 2010 were a disappointment for most economists who foresaw the third and fourth quarters to be much higher. The BEA’s advance report last month said GDP was up 3.2%. The new numbers show it was only up 2.8%. As I anticipated in my article on the advance report, I expected the numbers to [...]

Bernanke was asked in testimony if it wouldn’t be good for individuals to save more. He relied “Yes, but not now.”

That is the problem. Due to decades of depending on debt to fund consumption we have created a situation where saving hurts the economy and the economy being hurt means layoffs and stimulus and reduced buying power and reduced incentives to save with low interest rates. This is at the same time that risk is high in equities if you choose the index or wrong stocks. Some, that are truly [...]