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Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson went on Fareed Zakaria GPS on Sunday to discuss the euro crisis and how a Greek exit from the common currency would play out.
Ferguson told Zakaria it would go down on a Sunday night: So, what you would be talking about would be an announcement, presumably on a Sunday night, along the lines of “news just in, those euros that you have in your bank from tomorrow, will [...] Spain and Italy reinstated a short- sale ban on stocks as bank shares plunged to record lows, bond yields rose and the euro traded below its lifetime average against the dollar on concern the debt crisis is growing. Spain’s CNMV market regulator banned the creation of negative bets using all equity securities through shares, derivatives and over-the-counter instruments for three months. Italy’s Consob prohibited the practice on 29 banking and insurance shares for one [...] Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com Rather than solving the Eurozone debt crisis once and for all, the EU summit last week gummed up the bailout process with controversy in the very country that everyone is counting on to save the Eurozone, Germany—but also elsewhere—and nothing has been resolved. There is Greece, inexorably tottering towards its exit from the Eurozone. Once again, the despised Troika inspectors have arrived in Athens. Based on their findings, they’ll decide [...] From The Reformed Broker: OK, I admit that headline was total linkbait. But I don’t care because I want you to read this – this is the global macro bear case written better than anyone else has broken it down before. The below comes from The End of the World As We Know It by Dani Rodrik at Project Syndicate: Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s [...] HSBC has tested its cash machines in Greece to check whether they could cope with the reintroduction of the drachma if the country drops out of the euro. It is the clearest sign yet that the international financial sector believes Greece is on the brink of quitting the single currency and returning to its former currency. An HSBC spokesman said: ‘Like all banks, we have been working with regulators to undertake [...] Rheinische Post is a legitimate german newspaper Its in the printed version and online. http://www.rp-online.de/politik/eu/wird-die-neue-drachme-schon-gedruckt-1.2853675 from the article: Eine der Redaktion bekannte Papierfirma aus NRW liefert bereits über einen Zwischenhändler Material für den Druck von Drachmen an De La Rue. Der Zwischenhändler, der wie die Firma anonym bleiben muss, will die gedruckten Drachmen aber bereits mit eigenen Augen gesehen haben. translation: A company in NRW (North Rhine-Westphalia) known to the editorial staff. “GREXIT” is an ugly term for what may soon become an even uglier reality: Greece’s departure from the euro zone. As fury in Athens runs up against frustration with Greek recalcitrance in the rest of the European Union, the EU’s most troubled economy could be heading out of the single currency within weeks. If Greek banks suffer a mass run, as depositors withdraw euros for fear they will be forcibly [...] Nightmare foretold if Greece heads for euro exit “In Athens, the homeless are on the streets in growing numbers, soup kitchens feed twice as many people as a year ago, and the poor are diving into garbage bins in search of scrap they can sell. Greece is close to breaking point as it struggles with austerity targets set by creditors, but this is just a foretaste of the nightmare of unrest, hunger [...] by Michael
Money is being pulled out of Greek banks at an alarming rate, and if something dramatic is not done quickly Greek banks are going to start dropping like flies. As I detailed yesterday, people do not want to be stuck with euros in Greek banks when Greece leaves the euro and converts back to the drachma. The fear is that all existing euros in Greek banks would be converted over [...] Michael Snyder The bank runs that we are watching right now in Greece are shocking, but they are only just the beginning. Since May 6th, nearly one billion dollars has been withdrawn from Greek banks. For a small nation like Greece, that is an absolutely catastrophic number. At this point, the entire Greek banking system is in danger of collapsing. If you had money in a Greek bank, why [...] As global companies draw up contingency plans for a Greek exit from the euro, we examine the feasibility of Athens’ departure – from new drachmas to illegality and €1 trillion costs. By Alistair Osborne
It’s a tradition of Greek theatre that the real action takes place off-stage. Much the same might be said of the euro drama. A second bailout and last week’s repayment of a €14.5bn (£12.1bn) bond has produced a dramatic lull [...] Central banks in the emerging markets increasing their holdings of gold has been a big part of the bull market in the metal. At the end of last year, official net purchases of gold started to rise dramatically. In the third quarter of 2011, central banks added 148.8 tonnes to their gold stocks, more than double the entire amount of government buying in 2010, according to the World Gold Council. Interestingly, [...] By Alexander Zaitchik I arrived in Athens only hours after the February 12 anti-austerity riots, the acrid odor of burnt-out banks still lingering downtown, and checked into a familiar haunt, the Hostel Zorbas on Victoria Square. The last time I stayed there, in the summer of 2001, the place still took drachmas and buzzed with backpackers just returned from Piraeus, where the ferries fan out to the pleasure islands of the Aegean. A decade [...] by Joe Weisenthal It will go in two different directions. What’s the prospect for the Greek stock market if Greece leaves the Euro. SocGen’s Patrick Legland and Daniel Fermon have produced this clever chart. It compares the Athens market to the Argtine market, during its crisis. Basically, Argentina was essentially in the same situation as Greece, except the Greek peso was pegged to the dollar. When Argentina de-pegged, its equity market surged when priced in pesos, and [...] Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com Greeks yanked €65 billion out of their bank accounts since 2009, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelostold parliament on Friday. “Of that total, €16 billion has been legally taken abroad,” he said. The rest? Stashed under mattresses or hauled to Switzerland via the land route. A whopping 20% of GDP! Capital flight of massive proportions. They see a forced conversion of their euros to drachmas. With good reason. “The case of Greece is hopeless,” said [...] Think “all is fine” in Europe after today’s largely irrelevant Italian bill auction (the auction was for 6 month debt – even Greece can raise that kind of money)? Think again. Here is the Fermentation Committee Chairman explaining why Europe is so hard pressed to create a fake sense of calm, allowing those who know the real story to take advantage of the situation while they still can, and sharing the [...] by ZH Such efficiency out of the Greeks for once- not a single Persian was harmed, or even needed, in this 21st century version of Thermopylae: the Greeks did it all on their own. More: “Although it was done discreetly, news that Athens had opened the fund filtered out and was one of the factors that rattled markets across Europe. At one [...] Jeff Clark In spite of constant headlines about debts and deficits, most Americans don’t really believe the U.S. dollar will collapse. From knowledgeable investors who study the markets to those seemingly too busy to worry about such things, most dismiss the idea of the dollar actually going to zero. History has a message for us: No fiat currency has lasted forever. [...] By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD In spite of constant headlines about debts and deficits, most Americans don’t really believe the U.S. dollar will collapse. From knowledgeable investors who study the markets to those seemingly too busy to worry about such things, most dismiss the idea of the dollar actually going to zero. History has a message for us: No fiat currency has lasted forever. Eventually, they all fail. BMG BullionBars [...] via FrontlineThoughts: - Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent. - The Greek government will nationalize every bank in Greece. - The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks. - To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets, Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of such depositors), the Greek government will declare a [...] by ZH Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent. From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors Greece: What’s next? Restructuring. When? Sooner than you think. This weekend’s not so secret meeting was the first step towards what could be a rapid end game of Greek debt restructuring. The lenders are unlikely to give Greece the exact same terms as Portugal and seem intent on demanding collateral against future loans. Greece must resist providing collateral since it [...] |
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A Too-Big-To-Fail Whale Tale, A Lousy Jobs Report, & “Lazy Methodology”
Uploaded by CapitalAccount on Apr 9, 2012
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Welcome to Capital Account. Last week we told you about the “London Whale” – the London-based Bruno Iksil of JP Morgan Chase. He has reportedly amassed derivative positions so large that he’s driving price moves in the $10 trillion market for credit derivative indexes. Is this yet another sign that too big to fail banks are taking outsized risks with federally insured money? Would [...]