Andrew Burkly: ‘Commodities are representing another example of just how odd this lack of risk-embracing rally we’ve seen is, while stocks are at all-time highs, a lot of risk indicators are not participating.’

Fight or Flight: Get Ready for the Earnings Crush

Markets in the week ahead will try to size up the economic soft patch that has spooked commodities investors and is driving buyers into Treasurys.

Stocks, so far, have not shown much reaction to worries that the economy is slowing down, with both the Dow and S&P 500 at record highs in the past week.

About a third of the Dow Industrials and 70 [...]

Almost All Important Economic Reports Came Out Today Miss Expectation!!! Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, PPI, And Business Inventories. Is This It For The Market Rally? Marc Faber: S&P 500 Could Easily Decline 40%!!

Economic Calendar – MarketWatch

8:30 am
Retail sales
March
-0.4%
-0.1%
1.0%

8:30 am
Retail sales ex-autos
March
-0.4%
0.0%
1.0%

8:30 am
Producer price index
March
-0.6%
-0.3%
0.7%

8:30 am
Core PPI
March
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%

9:55 am
Consumer sentiment
April
72.3
79.3
78.6

10 am
Business inventories
Feb.
0.1%
0.4%
1.0%

 

March Retail Slide, Miss Expectations, Post Biggest Drop Since June

 

 

 

Is This It For The Market Rally?

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high yesterday.

Meanwhile, market watchers continue to look for a top.  At the very least, people are looking for a 5% pullback or a 10% correction before the rally resumes.

Earlier this morning, [...]

The Picture Is Unmistakably Bearish: America’s Triple A Rating At Risk, Housing Starts Fall In November, FedEx Earnings Fall, And Guidance Is Weak, And Insiders Are Selling…

 

Fitch: America’s Triple A Rating At Risk

 

Fitch warned that the U.S. is more likely to lose its top-notch “AAA” rating if lawmakers cannot agree on how to cut the deficit and avoid the broad government spending cuts and tax increases that go into effect next year if no deal is reached.

U.S. housing starts fall in November

Chart showing housing starts and completions with a 6 month lag:

from MarketWatch: U.S. housing starts [...]

Weekly Interactive Worldwide Economic Calendar

This is interactive. Click on the item for charts and data as reported.
Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros – The Leading Financial Portal

Irwin Kellner: Economic policy is hurting the economy, Washington is making crucial mistakes

By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. — Monetary and fiscal policies are not as stimulative as they appear. Indeed, by some measures, they are actually slowing the pace of economic growth, rather than boosting it.

Once again, the fledgling recovery appears to be hitting headwinds. Even though the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter was just revised upward to a robust 3%, expectations for the current quarter [...]

WORSE THAN EXPECTED: New York manufacturing activity dips again – Fourth straight negative monthly reading

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Manufacturing activity in the New York region weakened again in September, according to data released Thursday, raising fresh concern over the strength of the factory sector in the third quarter.

The Empire State index decreased slightly to negative 8.8 in September from negative 7.7 in August, according to the manufacturing survey released by the New York Federal Reserve. [...]

Money Manager: What’s the Point of More QE? It’s Failed to Help Housing, Wages or Hiring

This week’s financial and economic calendar culminates Friday with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s policy speech at the Fed’s annual summer getaway in Jackson Hole, Wy.

Will he or won’t he announce another round of quantitative easing? That’s the big issue facing financial markets.

It was at this same conference last August that Bernanke cued in the markets about the second round of quantitative easing, which resulted in the Fed [...]

RanSquawk: Moody’s downgrade Greece’s sovereign rating by three notches, to Ca from Caa1, and warned that it is almost inevitable the country will be considered to be in default following last week’s new bailout package

From RanSquawk:

Moody’s downgrade Greece’s sovereign rating by three notches, to Ca from Caa1, and warned that it is almost inevitable the country will be considered to be in default following last week’s new bailout package
US lawmakers have so far failed to come up with a concrete proposal to raise country’s debt ceiling and to manage US’s soaring debt, raising fears of a sovereign default
CHF and JPY [...]

Fed will launch ‘QE3’ by fall, expert says

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The weak June nonfarm payrolls report will spur the Federal Reserve to launch a third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, sometime this fall, said David Blanchflower, a professor at Dartmouth College.

“QE3 looks increasingly on the table. What are they going to do, let unemployment start rising again?” Blanchflower said in a telephone interview.

Blanchflower, a former member [...]

Dollar tumbles to all-time low vs. Swiss franc

The euro struck a 16-month high against the dollar and the Swiss franc notched a record high versus the US unit Tuesday amid heightened investor nerves over this week’s busy economic calendar.

The European single currency hit $1.4653 in morning trade, the highest point since mid-December 2009, as many dealers returned from a long holiday weekend. It later stood at $1.4619, compared with $1.4572 late in New [...]

Edward Krudy of Reuters reports, Is Santa Claus rally almost done?:

Via Pension Pulse.

The December rally may be reaching its climax, with just two weeks to go before Santa Claus makes his midnight run. Dwindling volume, excess optimism, and history all point to a stock market that could be running out of steam.

Investors appear to have grown complacent as the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, has fallen to levels [...]

Excellent commentary: Irwin Kellner: This is recovery? Are you kidding?

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — The umpire of the business cycle has called the recession over but the players want to review the tape.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. economy stopped falling in June of 2009. This implies that business conditions bottomed out some 15 months ago and have been improving ever since. See full story on NBER.

Hello? The real world would [...]