London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash, BullionVault
Fri 17 May, 08:15 EST
Pension Funds “Selling Gold ETFs”, Dollar Weakness Seen Offering “Only Hope” Short Term
GOLD PRICES failed to hold a rally above $1380 per ounce in London on Friday morning, trading 5% down for the week as world stock markets held steady.
Both the Euro and British Pound also cut their mid-week rallies against the Dollar, holding gold prices at €1070 and £904 per [...]
ALBERT EDWARDS: Here’s Why The Market Has Been Tanking
We noted last night that the decline was happening, even as the Citi Economic Surprise Index was hitting new highs:
Bloomberg, Business Insider
In his latest note, SocGen’s famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards says there is no mystery going on here.
First he notes that a divorce between stocks and economic surprises is not unprecedented. It happened in… 2008.
But more specifically, Edwards says it’s all about [...]
And we close green. Unfuckingbelievable!!!
Philly factory activity stays weak in July
Factory activity in the Philadelphia region contracted for the third straight month in July, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed’s business-outlook survey improved modestly to negative 12.9 in July from negative 16.6 in June.
Sales of existing homes drop 5.4% in June
Sales of existing homes in June fell to the slowest pace since October, a decline that [...]
From Pragmatic Capitalism:
The Citigroup economic surprise index is now clearly in the negative territory in a trend reminiscent of last year’s decline.
BW/Bloomberg: – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., a gauge of how much reports differ from economists’ estimates in Bloomberg surveys, turned negative on April 25 and fell May 3 to the lowest level since September. Last year, the gauge sank below zero for the first time [...]
by Sam Ro
Lakshman Achuthan and his firm ECRI has been taking a lot of heat for maintaining an aggressive recession call, even as the index has turned up.
Bank of America’s Mary Ann Bartels just published her massive 102-page chart book. Included is this interesting chart of ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index on top of the S&P 500.
From Bartels’ note:
Weekly Leading index held support and is rising catching up to the US equity market
The pattern had been [...]
Following today’s disappointing jobs data, we thought it useful to reflect on the sad reality that is occurring under the eyes of AAPL Mr. Market. As BofAML notes this morning, their Economic Data Diffusion index (which tracks macro data surprises) has been trending lower for over a month (indicating a trend of data missing expectations to the downside) and, more importantly has turned absolutely negative (indicating a marginally negative bias to [...]
This post originally appeared at the Reformed Broker
Gallup has a cool interactive toy posted that allows you to sort the states by things like hiring, firing, job creation and affinity for the band Rascal Flatts. Here’s the state-by-state ranking of what Gallup calls the Economic Confidence Index, no surprise who’s on top:
State of the States (Gallup)
Much has been said about the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) over the course of the last four years, especially in light of the credit crisis and the effects it has had on the frequency of global shipping.
Importing and exporting has never been quite the same since 2008, and this change is made most obvious through one of the few statistical measures left in the world that is not subject [...]
by Doug Short
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -8.4 in its latest reading, data through January 6. The latest public data point is a slightly deeper contraction from last week’s -8.2, although the underlying WLI rose a point from 120.2 to 121.2 (see the third chart below). The index had been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the [...]
by Henry Blodget
A major divergence has developed between various leading economic indicators in recent months.
The LEI, the government’s measure of leading economic indicators has been steadily improving for months, suggesting that the US economy is getting stronger and stronger. The stock market has been rising. December’s jobs numbers were encouraging. Rail shipments have been increasing. And so on.
Meanwhile, the economic forecasting firm ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) has staked its reputation on an unequivocal recession [...]
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 23. The latest public data point is virtually unchanged from last week’s -7.7. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past seven weeks. Those of us who follow this indicator are nervously awaiting a confirmation or reversal [...]
In the past two weeks, one of the curious development in monetary aggregates, in addition to a spike in the Adjusted Monetary Base (discussed previously here), was the $88.7 billion surge in the M2 for the week ended July 4, the third largest jump in the broadest tracked monetary aggregate in history. Some have speculated that this number may be indicative that the money multiplier [...]
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The pace of economic growth may be “choppy” in the summer and fall, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its leading economic index fell 0.3% in April, the first monthly decline since June. “The economy has been growing moderately and delivering some new jobs,” said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, in a statement. Four of the 10 [...]
U.S. CEOs grew less optimistic in Q3, with The Business Roundtable’s economic outlook index falling to 86 from 94.6 in Q2 – the first decrease since the beginning of 2009. 66% of respondents expect sales will grow over the next six months, down from 79%. Only 31% expect to add to payrolls, down 8 points. CEOs reduced their 2010 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from [...]
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturersâ€™ new orders, consumer goods and materials
Index of supplier deliveries â€“ vendor performance
Manufacturers’ new orders, non-defense capital goods
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply, M2
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Index of consumer expectations
Anyone see a problem up there?
Kinda like GDP that gets goosed by government spending to show expansion while it HIDES [...]
Will any legitimate news organization report on this? Even most Americans can understand this type of data. As of yesterday I am 100% out of equities now and forever…. 7 figure withdrawal… I’m tired of this BS ponzi game and being lied too…
The UMichigan consumer confidence index dropped from from 76, the best number since January 2008, to 66.5, the lowest since August 2009, on expectation of 74.5. The [...]
The index currently sits at 2,406 points, its lowest level since October 2009, and is in the midst of a 24-week losing streak.
“Shipbrokers say the plunge, which more than halved capesize-vessel freight rates in a month, is due to faltering demand for iron ore from Chinese steel mills, as they grapple with a tougher export environment as well as policy moves to rein excess construction.”
The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÃ‚Â® (LEI) for the United States increased 0.4 percent in May, following no change in April, and a 1.4 percent rise in March. “The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this year,” says Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board. “Public debt and deficits weigh heavily on growth prospects on both [...]