Albert Edwards, known as an unrelenting market bear, has reversed course and is now bullish on European stocks – but mostly for investors with binoculars aimed at the far horizon.
Edwards, the chief global strategist for Societe Generale who the Financial Times described as “the most dogged ‘bear’ in the City of London,” created waves with his remarks at the bank’s annual strategy conference.
Edwards said European stocks are “unambiguously cheap” [...]
From The Big Picture:
Whenever we are near fully invested, we begin to look for the drivers that have the potential to derail the current portfolio posture.
Earnings were the prime worry last month. Now, the concern is an eventual recession coming sooner rather than later.
Towards that concern, Albert Edwards of Soc Gen points us to John Hussman who points us to Lance Roberts, who is looking at the Coincident to Lagging [...]
ALBERT EDWARDS: Here’s Why The Market Has Been Tanking
We noted last night that the decline was happening, even as the Citi Economic Surprise Index was hitting new highs:
Bloomberg, Business Insider
In his latest note, SocGen’s famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards says there is no mystery going on here.
First he notes that a divorce between stocks and economic surprises is not unprecedented. It happened in… 2008.
But more specifically, Edwards says it’s all about [...]
The U.S. economy has already slid into a recession and stock markets are poised to enter an “Ice Age” marked by little activity and movement, said Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards.
Hopes that the Federal Reserve will stimulate the U.S. economy via a third round of quantitative easing have pushed stock prices up in the recent past, and not…
Read full article…
Albert Edwards, the consistently bearish strategist at Societe Generale, just published his latest note to clients. And his message is as dark as ever.
“The resilience of the US equity market in the face of a rapidly deteriorating profits backdrop points to continued high levels of investor hope,” Edwards wrote. “The vice-like grip of the bear will soon squeeze the hope from their gasping, broken bodies.”
He points to many of the [...]
Since January we have been pounding the table that 2012 is nothing but a carbon copy of 2011. Whether this is due to the limited imagination of the central planners, or a quota on the number of pages in the market’s script, we don’t know. What we do know is that since now everyone acknowledges that the two years have been fused into one, we suggest readers take a double [...]
The U.S. is already in a recession according to Societe Generale’s bearish analyst Albert Edwards.
Earlier this month Edwards said companies could see their incomes drop 30 – 40 percent because of the recession, and that the S&P 500 could see its index halved to 666 points.
And he is basing this on a decline in analyst optimism that is a good leading indicator of economic activity:
“Regular readers will know that we have always [...]
The meme is spreading.
Previously we associated the phrase “ice age” with SocGen’s Albert Edwards, who uses it to describe this peristently miserable market and economic environment that’a chracterized the world for the past 5 years.
Now even Morgan Stanley’s top economist Vincent Reinhart is adopting it, as his latest weekly note refers to our “:ittle Ice Age” in the title.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanleys-reinhart-we-are-in-a-little-ice-age-2012-7#ixzz1zwKU1Jhh
From Zero Hedge:
It seems that it was only four months ago that Albert Edwards was channeling Dante when he advised clients that “All Hope Must Be Crushed For A True Bull Market To Emerge.” It would appear that the SocGen strategist still has some bullish friends he wants to lose because he just released the follow up:
“As 30-year German Bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge toward Japanese rates, we [...]
In his latest note, SocGen’s famously bearish Albert Edwards looks around at interest rates falling all over the place and Europe in chaos, and gives himself a good chest-beating, while mocking the equity bulls for yapping about how cheap stocks are.
He’s clearly feeling pretty good about the way things are turning out, writing: “For 15 years we were told the West is nothing like Japan. We agree. It is worse! [...]
We ran this chart from Pew on Tuesday, and since then it’s become a huge phenomenon.
People are in love with this fact that Greece, and only Greece, is the country that doesn’t see Germany as the most hardworking, and that in face they see themselves as the most hardworking.
And while everyone is mocking it, people are mounting a spirited defense of the Greeks.
Brad Plumer at WaPo’s wonkblog notes that OECD stats say [...]
Société Générale’s Albert Edwards discusses global housing prices and the ongoing economic recovery in light of coordinated central bank activity. I like the preface to his discussion:
• We have regularly explained that there are two types of market and economic commentator: those who will, if a trend persists long enough, embrace it and extrapolate the trend forward into the indefinite future. Therein lies the essence of great investment
disasters the market [...]
We’re used to reading apocalyptic warnings and rants about gold from the boys from SocGen (Dylan Grice and Albert Edwards) so the latest note out from Grice is a true pleasure.
The title is: Why we overpay for excitement (and the secret pleasure of being boring), and it’s all about the appeal of high-quality, low-beta stocks.
The basic idea is: Investors systematically overpay for high-volatility, high-beta stocks because they like the thrill (kind of [...]
Nothing that we haven’t said already many times, but always good to hear someone, in this case SocGen’s Albert Edwards, observe what is patently obvious – namely that the start of every year now sends a consistently wrong signal that the economy is improving due to seasonal adjustments that no longer are applicable in the New Normal. This coupled with the liquidity boost that takes places just prior to each and every [...]
DES MOINES, Iowa — A Des Moines man has been arrested after police say he used, or tried to use, the identity of Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz in a scheme to falsely implicate Schultz in perceived unethical behavior in office.
Zachary Edwards was arrested Friday and charged with identity theft.
The Iowa Department of Public Safety issued a news release saying Schultz’s office discovered the scheme on June 24, 2011 [...]
By: Lee Brodie
(CNBC) On Tuesday, investors were again looking at the strength in the US market and wondering if that strength would persist. “The US again looks like the best house, albeit in a bad neighborhood,” says trader Patty Edwards.
The Fast Money top trader is referring to the latest economic data which showed U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in December, hitting an eight-month high.
Also, late last week, new [...]
Bloomberg headlines confirm the Chinese export-led growth dynamo is growing dimmer by the day:
CHINA’S `NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC’ ABOUT EXPORTS IN 2012, CHEN SAYS
CHINA’S TRADE GROWTH MARGIN DECLINED IN DECEMBER, CHEN SAYS
CHINA EXPORTS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER IN EACH MONTH OF 4Q
CHINA 2011 IMPORT GROWTH RATE 5 PCT POINTS HIGHER THAN EXPORTS
CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTER CHEN DEMING SPEAKS AT GENEVA BRIEFING
Translation: the next several Chinese monthly surplus reports will not be pretty, [...]
Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards says Italy should not have been sucked into the vortex. Unlike the PIGS, Italy never had a irresponsible boom. Instead it has been sucking wind and piling up debt for more than a decade.
Now that the market has turned on Italy, he says it could also turn on France and Germany, which have relatively bigger off-balance-sheet liabilities.
Edwards is bullish on Europe only because he says the [...]
Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale, has been underweight stocks since 1996 and despite being met, he says, with “utter derision,” believes a fall by the S&P to 400 is “almost inevitable.”
Edwards said he has been long government bonds for the same amount of time and now feels vindicated with the yield on the 10-year Treasury having fallen from 7 percent [...]
This chart was just sent out from Albert Edwards:
The chart below shows the monthly S&P together with the MACD.
For those normal people who don’t know what the MACD is or even what it stands for, it is the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence. It is a momentum oscillator closely followed by many market participants. When the faster moving mav breaks the slower moving mav (up or down) we [...]
Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards points us to a terrifying technical sell signal in the S&P 500: the “killer wave.” This formation was identified by Investors Chronicle’s Dominic Picarda.
Here’s how it works. The Coppock indicator–an esoteric momentum measure (Wikipedia description) –turns down giving a sell signal. This happened last summer. Before the indicator dips below 0, it moves up again, which it did in April of [...]
It appears that even the perception of law and order is now tossed out the window… Why bother keeping up the pretense, right?
Foreclosure Fraud Investigators Forced Out At Attorney General’s Office
“A lead foreclosure fraud investigator for the state said she and a colleague were forced to resign from the Florida attorney general’s office, unexpectedly ending their nearly yearlong pursuit to hold law firms [...]
The latest decline in employment and other economic data suggests the U.S. economy is about to, “relapse back into economic stagnation or recession…” according to Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards.
Edwards explains that without more quantitative easing, his ice age theme, in which equity prices decline, and bond prices climb, is back on.
From Albert Edwards:
The Ice Age theme is now well known. In a world of very [...]
here is the video from the FT referenced by Edwards
I recently watched John Authers of the FT Lex and Long View columns interview Russell Napier, formally of CSLA and a leading stockmarket historian. Russell?s views are as interesting as ever and well worth 11 minutes of watching time. His views are similar to mine, although he articulates his thoughts far more clearly [...]
A Phoenix woman on Monday gave birth to a baby boy she carried just outside her womb.
Doctors at Banner Good Samaritan Hospital in Phoenix delivered the child through surgery Monday morning. Both the baby and the mother, Nicolette Soto, 27, were doing fine, said Rainey Daye Holloway, a hospital spokesperson.
Doctors said the pregnancy is rare. They were still determining where the egg first implanted itself and [...]
Sean Corrigan’s weekly “Material Evidence” is always a must read. In his latest edition, the uber-eloquent Brit puts simplistically worded Fed bashing to shame with an anti-Fed manifesto masterpiece that is off the charts on the Flesch-Kincaid reading level.Â While we will post the full piece shortly, we wanted to bring attention to one particular chart which has not received any prominence in the [...]
by Gregory White
As to the US public being near revolution, absolutely correct. Another 97 years of tyranny should finally push us over the edge.
Here’s why, according to Edwards:
This would happen in any nation where a vision of prosperity has been shown to be a Ponzi sham, engineered by the authorities to help disguise the fact that the rich have been getting a whole lot richer.
“Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Denouement
By Albert Edwards
The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction [...]