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Reminder: The first exit polls from the Italian election will hit some time around 9 AM ET, before US markets officially open.
The hope for World markets/the EU/Italian elites is that the center-left parties get enough votes to form a stable majority. The fear is that there will be a big surge for the conservative (Berlusconi) and populist (Beppe Grillo) movements, making a government untenable, and thus risking a backsliding of Italy’s [...] Park Geun-hye, the daughter of South Korea’s Cold War dictator, looked set to become the country’s first female president after exit polls and the early official count showed her narrowly winning Wednesday’s election over liberal rival Moon Jae-in. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/park-geun-hye-appears-set-to-become-south-koreas-first-female-president/article6552783/  CATALONIA VOTES TO ‘BREAK WITH SPAIN’! CATALAN PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES WIN MAJORITY, EXIT POLL SHOWS from Zerohedge: Mas Trouble In Little Spain As Country Layers Constitutional Crisis Onto Economic Depression Catalonia’s exit polls confirm over two-thirds of votes will go to pro-independence parties that will likely push for a referendum to break away from Spain, which the central government will challenge as unconstitutional. The more-populous-than-Denmark region is home to car factories and banks that generate one-fifth of Spain’s [...] I went to bed last night thinking we’re outnumbered. I went to bed last night thinking all this discussion we’d had about this election being the election that will tell us whether or not we’ve lost the country. I went to bed last night thinking we’ve lost the country. I don’t know how else you look at this. The first wave of exit polls came in at 5 p.m. I looked [...] Fox News Mitt Romney has carried West Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana and Kentucky, Fox News projects, while President Obama is the winner in Vermont. The results put the Republican nominee out to an early lead in the electoral-vote count. Romney has 49 electoral votes to Obama’s three; it takes 270 to win. But with dozens of states still voting, the lead will likely swing back and forth throughout the [...] The first nationwide exit poll results are in, and here’s some preliminary data heading into election night: 60% of voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, followed by 15% who said the deficit, and 17% who said healthcare. What’s the most important candidate quality? 29% said “a vision for future,” 28% said “share my values,” 19% said “strong leader,” and 20% said “cares about people.” Who is more [...] Drudge Leaks Cryptic Exit Poll Results: EXITS: Obama has 190 electoral votes and Romney has 191 locked… DEVELOPING… The First Exit Polls Are Coming Out, And There’s Mass Dissatisfaction With The Economy Most notable is the lingering dissatisfaction with the direction of the country’s economy — only 25 percent of respondents in the exit poll said they were better off than four years ago. … http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-exit-polls-2012-election-day-2012-11#ixzz2BU4QXson http://bigstory.ap.org/article/exit-poll-shows-economy-still-top-concern#overlay-context= http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Exit-poll-shows-economy-still-the-top-concern/-/1637132/17291098/-/121u9vm/-/index.html
NEW YORK — At 11 a.m. Tuesday, representatives from five TV networks and the Associated Press will head into the “quarantine room,” an undisclosed location with no cell phone or Internet access. That’s where the National Election Pool — ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP — start sifting through exit poll data provided by Edison Research. Six hours later, staffers will be permitted to start sending data to their respective [...] Press, Venezuela’s electoral council has declared that Hugo Chavez beat Henriques Capriles in Sunday’s presidential election with about 54 percent of the vote, despite exit polls showing otherwise. Venezuela Twitter users have claimed Chavez’s victory was wrought with election fraud, and that the socialist incumbent president sent tanks into the streets of his country as those exit poll reports showed him losing. A picture of the tanks surfaced on Twitter Sunday evening. Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/07/report-exit-polls-show-hugo-chavez-lost-venezuelan-election/#ixzz28g3TIFve via google translate: he candidate of the Democratic Unity Table (MUD), Henrique Capriles, be imposed against Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez , in the presidential elections held on Sunday in the Caribbean country,according to a poll exit polls by consultancy Variance the absence of closure of polling stations . The time set for the closing were 00.30 Spanish time, however, and because of the long lines in some of them, have remained open for another [...] Dan Merkle, director of elections for ABC News, and a member of the consortium that runs the exit poll, confirmed the shift Wednesday. The aim, he said, “is to still deliver a quality product in the most important states,” in the face of mounting survey costs. The National Election Pool — a joint venture of the major television networks and The Associated Press — has not announced the states that won’t [...] In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls, Sometimes, however, one must wonder. As I pointed out yesterday, the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there [...] The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him. Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without a college education. But in these latest surveys, he has fallen to a level of support among them lower than any Democratic nominee has attracted [...] Presidential Sector Investing: That’s rich By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — “It’s the elections, stupid! Elections, not earnings, are now driving financial markets,” warns Adam Shell in USA Today: “It’s about exit polls, not P-E ratios … all that stomach-churning stock-market volatility? Blame voters!” But what does that really mean for America’s 95 million investors and investment strategies: Forget fundamental analysis? Ignore technical patterns? Modern [...] UPDATE 4:30 PM ET/11:30 ATHENS
If you thought for a moment that the Greek election would end in a clean outcome tonight, the joke was on you. In the first wave of exit polls that came out at 12:00 PM ET, the pro-bailout, conservative New Democracy party held a razor thin 0.5% lead over the leftist SYRIZA party. Then an hour and a half later, it became clear that New Democracy would come in [...] Greek political leaders made their final campaign pleas before elections tomorrow that may determine whether the country becomes the first member of the euro to leave the currency union. “The first thing we must determine in the elections on June 17 is to choose between the euro or drachma,” New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras told a crowd of flag-waving supporters in central Syntagma square last night. He faced the Parliament building in Athens, [...] From Bloomberg: Greeks head to the ballot box in two days for a contest that may determine the fate of the world’s first democracy and the future of the newest reserve currency, while roiling markets from Wellington to Wall Street. Greeks head to the ballot box in two days for a contest that may determine the fate of the world’s first democracy and the future of the newest reserve currency, while roiling markets from Wellington to Wall Street. Almost 10 million Greeks will vote for the second time in six weeks after a May 6 ballot failed to yield a government. The constitution permits a third election too. The final polls, published on [...] The Bradley Effect came to life during an election for the mayor of LA in the early 1980s. Tom Bradley was the mayor and he was black. When up for re-election he was way ahead in the polls but lost. The conclusion many came to was that when people were asked by those conducting the various polls who they were going to vote for, they were reluctant to say they [...] via ZH
While clearly dramatic, the outcome of the French presidential election was very much anticipated and at this point the only real question is how many promises will Hollande reneg on before the week is over: if Berlusconi is any indication, all it will take is for OAT yields to spike by 20-30% and all shall be well for the status quo. Greece, on the other hand, where as we said the [...] via MegaTV
First Exit Polls released just minutes ago per Twitter: Greece Exit Poll: ND 17-20% PASOK 14-17% SYRIZA 15,5-18,5% AN. ELLHN. 10-12% KKE 7,5-9,5% XRYSH AYGH 6-8% DHMAR 4,5-6,5% This is IMPORTANT, and could dramatically effect the world economies very quickly.
via ZH
As we expected, the previous unofficial poll forecasts were total rubbish, and according to exit polls from NET TV, the results are as follows: New Democracy: 17-20% President Obama may still have the support of the youth population, but will they turn out to vote for him? A new poll indicates that is uncertain. A Gallup poll conducted earlier this week surveyed voter registration and likelihood to vote, broken down by age groups. Among the 18-29 set, 60 percent indicated that they are registered to vote. Obama enjoys a wide lead over Romney in this age group: 64 percent support [...] Pic: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/04/22/article-0-12B7B866000005DC-561_306x423.jpg Four years as France’s first lady looked to have taken their toll on Carla Bruni yesterday as she voted in presidential elections which are on course to bring them to an end. Just before exit polls predicted that her husband, Nicolas Sarkozy, would suffer a humiliating defeat, Carla ticked her ballot paper close to her home in Paris’s 16th arrondissement. Many suggested that too much Botox and other surgical procedures had transformed [...] Exit poll data from France is starting to leak, but don’t look for any French media outlets or even French citizens to start tweeting the data. It’s highly illegal. From NYT: Until 8 p.m. Sunday, election day, when the last polling places close in the first round of voting, the country’s 10 presidential candidates may not give speeches or interviews, distribute fliers or update their campaign Web sites or Facebook pages. And no media outlet, pollster [...] MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — It might be one of the biggest issues in the upcoming presidential election. Last night, CBS News exit polls found 77 percent of those voting in seven Super Tuesday states say rising gas prices were an important factor in their vote. The poll reflects growing consumer anxiety as gas prices have risen nearly 50 cents a gallon in just over two months. Consumers have been telling us they are cutting [...] Vladimir Putin has declared victory in Russia’s presidential elections, returning for a third term after spending the last four years as the country’s PM. Exit polls and preliminary results gave him about 60% of the vote. Mr Putin told supporters at a rally in central Moscow they had won in an open and honest battle. But opposition groups have reported widespread fraud, with many people said to have voted more than once. …………. “I [...] Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won re-election today, television channels C5N and America24 said after voting ended in South America’s second-biggest economy. Fernandez, 58, won re-election to a second four-year term, the networks said, citing exit polls. She won by more than 40 percentage points over second-place finisher Hermes Binner, governor of Sante Fe province, America24 said. Official results will be available beginning at about 8 p.m. New York time, Interior [...] |
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