We Are Headed Directly Into A Brick Wall Where Everything Just Stops
Every market is going in the wrong direction in preparation for what is coming. Yes I know, this is always how it works when bubbles are being blown. Money is pouring into bonds in particular, stocks are being propped up and margin balances swollen, people are also being prodded into “selling” their Gold (paper obligations).
As I see it, we are headed [...]
Sinclair – The Later, Greater Depression
his article says, “The US encounters its most sluggish growth levels since the Great Depression.” Huffington as a source is most credible.
Has it occurred to anyone that we might be in a later, greater depression that has been hidden by liquidity and MSM MOPE, but is in fact unfolding?
Remember what I told you on more than one occasion, “If you could have lied in 1930 [...]
Private equity crash could trigger next wave of financial crisis, Bank warns
Bank of England fears that larger private equity deals done in the boom years ‘pose a risk to the stability of the financial system’ as refinancing looms
The Bank of England warned on Thursday that the next phase of the UK’s six-year financial and economic crisis may be triggered by the collapse of debt-laden companies bought by private equity firms in the boom years [...]
We have not been shy about exposing the massive (and unsustainable) bubble of credit being blown into the economy via Student Loans from the government. We have not been afraid to note the dramatic rise in delinquencies among these loans - and the implications for the government. However, as Bloomberg reports, it appears the impact of this exuberance has come back to bite the colleges themselves. In what can only be described as a vendor-financing [...]
telegraph.co.uk / By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The European Central Bank has dashed hopes of further stimulus to pull the eurozone out of recession and fight record unemployment, deeming the economy strong enough to heal itself.
Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, said the financial landscape has been transformed, citing a sharp drop in bond yields across the EMU periphery, a stock market rally and recovery of bank deposits in Greece and Spain. Capital flight has begun [...]
zerohedge.com / By Tyler Durden / January 10. 2013
Jim Grant spends exactly the correct amount of time (zero) discussing the “urban myth’ of the trillion dollar coin in this brief interview on CNBC; instead deciding to try and strike up some intelligent understanding of the dire situation we face. By providing context for our massive 16 trillion dollar debt (360 million pounds of $100 bills), and explaining how exponential the idiocy has [...]
Brent Cook: How to Turn Rock into Money
Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report (1/4/13)
What if the shockingly low valuations of some junior mining companies are really all they’re worth? As the market shakes off years of exuberance, Brent Cook, co-editor of the Exploration Insights newsletter, searches for the truly undervalued—finds as rare as gold itself. In this interview with The Gold Report, Cook talks about high-margin deposits [...]
Global Trade Volume Growth Is About To Turn Negative
For two decades the rate of growth of world trade volumes considerably outstripped that of industrial production as credit-fueled globalization created huge imbalances in the world. As Diapason Commodities’ Sean Corrigan indicates in these three simple charts, all that vendor-financed circular exuberance has come to an end. The bottom-line is that forced deleveraging (not least of which in Europe) is crushing the credit-fueled (and unsustainable) [...]
From Mao Money, Mao Problems:
On September 13, 2012, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided “[T]o increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month[,]” the reactions ranged from exuberance to horror.
The exuberance showed itself in the stock market, and the horror came from anyone holding dollar bills for the long term.
Jim Grant sent his condolences to the lab rats. Marc [...]
From Zero Hedge:
Last week, we discussed what the expectations were for Draghi’s OMT — approximately EUR250bn — which coincidentally provided cover for the rest of the year (conditionally) for the entire new issuance of the European Union.
Based on EURUSD’s recent exuberance — something we saw ahead of QE1 and QE2 — the market is now more than primed for some serious USD debasement. The current EURUSD of 1.2850 implies a [...]
Last week we discussed what the expectations were for Draghi’s OMT – approximately EUR250bn – which coincidentally provided cover for the rest of the year (conditionally) for the entire new issuance of the European Union. Based on EURUSD’s recent exuberance – something we saw ahead of QE1 and QE2 – the market is now more than primed for some serious USD debasement. The current EURUSD of 1.2850 implies a Fed-to-ECB [...]
Lowest workforce participation rate since September 1981
Jobless rate drops to 8.1 per cent but only because workforce shrinks
President Barack Obama knew of figures before big speech
Just 96,000 American jobs were added in August in a bleak monthly jobs report as 368,000 left the workforce, bringing labour market participation down to its lowest level for 31 years and dealing a blow to President Barack Obama’s re-election chances.
The national unemployment rate dropped [...]
Yves here. Yanis just posted an interview with ABC (Australia’s BBC) which describes how Greece cannot be salvaged. Its fate will be determined at the eurozone level, and its possible outcomes range from bad to awful. You can watch the conversation here. Transcript below:
LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: Joining us now from Athens is the Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis.
The obvious question is: what happens now?
YANIS VAROUFAKIS, ECONOMICS, ATHENS UNIVERSITY: Well, the derailment of the train [...]
Today’s 4-sigma short-squeeze ramp in EURUSD (up over 220pips from pre-Summit-statement) is very reminiscent of the 10/26/11 reaction to the Greek debt deal. EURUSD rallied magnificently, squeezing a dominating short-crowd over 400 pips higher that time. But it is the impulse reaction that we note – within two days, the entire rally had faded and indeed went on to sell off for a few more months as reality struck. One month [...]
June 3, 2012 blog post by Minamisoma City Councilor Koichi Oyama translated by Dissensus Japan:
[...]The other day when a member of the Diet visited Minamisoma City, he said that he had a meeting with an official beforehand but he got no information about it.
What happened to the Ministry of the Environment?
I exchanged business card with three officials when they came for an assembly on April 26. I sent emails but they never answered.
From Zero Hedge:
As can be seen in the attached clip Warren Buffett, as part of his anti money tirade, both real (gold) and fiat, the Chairman of Berkshire is certainly not a fan of holding cash in any form. To wit: “cash is as risky an asset you can own over time.” In other words, the opportunity cost of not owning something else with that cash is indicative of even more risk [...]
by Tyler Durden
As can be seen in the attached clip Warren Buffett, as part of his anti money tirade, both real (gold) and fiat, the Chairman of Berkshire is certainly not a fan of holding cash in any form. To wit: “cash is as risky an asset you can own over time.” In other words, the opportunity cost of not owning something else with that cash is indicative of even more risk in [...]
While in ‘normal’ times the commonly held view is that P/E ratios tend to fall as real interest rates rise, as we recently pointed out here, the relationship is highly non-linear and nowhere is this regime-dependence more evident than in the following chart from Morgan Stanley. Empirically, the current interest-rate regime (the 2-3% 10Y) is as good as it gets and whether rates rise or fall from here, equity valuations are likely [...]
Unwillingness to answer questions.
Unwillingness to engage in hypotheticals or having no curiosity.
Inability or unwillingness to talk shop.
Indecision or lack of conviction. One candidate couldn’t make a single decision during the entire interview.
Lacking emotion, exuberance, or excitement in the questions or solving the problems.
Not knowing the basics of their field.
Flakiness, shifting answers back and forth, multiple requests to repeat the question.
Lack of cleverness or intelligence.
Unusually pronounced arrogance or shitty attitude.
Two weeks ago we noted that all those banks that ‘invested’ in Spanish and Italian ‘Sarkozy’ carry-trades post LTRO2 are now under-water on their positions (on a MtM basis). The last week or so has seen this situation deteriorate rather rapidly with Spanish yields now backed up all the way to mid-November levels (and notably Spanish equities below their November lows) removing all the LTRO-exuberance leaving all Spanish banks under-water on their carry [...]
A anonymous letter was addressed to the CFTC, but unfortunately it looks like the CFTC has already chosen to ignore it and it was pulled off the site, but not before it was downloaded. I had sent the information to many tip lines and the MSM still covers for the corruption going on. You decide after reading:
Dear CFTC Staff,
Hello, I am a current JPMorgan Chase employee. This is an open [...]
by Tyler Durden
For the last month or so, despite ongoing fund inflows, high-yield credit’s performance has been generally muted. Compared to the exuberance of the equity market it has been downright flaccid and given how ‘empirically’ cheap it is on a normalized spread basis through the cycle (and the fortress-like balance sheets we hear so much about) some would expect it to be the high-beta long of choice in the new-new normal rally-to-infinity. [...]
From Eric Sprott and David Baker from Sprott Asset Management
The [Recovery] Has No Clothes
” I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in [...]
The storm clouds gathering behind Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, are a perfect analogy for his fascinating treatise on the key to long term bull markets and why the Dow will be cut in half. Bringing together the critical fundamental driver of P/E multiples – income growth in his view – and the historically most critical secular shift of this fundamental driver – communications breakthroughs, Biderman remains calm (for once) in his explanation [...]
Uploaded by opportunityshow on Feb 6, 2012
In this interview, Ellis Martin speaks with Jim Sinclair about the “positive employment outlook” reported by the government and the media and the exuberance associated with it. Where do these numbers come from? Mr. Sinclair also has compelling advice for the listener regarding how to protect oneself from the ultimate endgame related to Quantitative Easing and the decline of the dollar. What is China’s direct influence [...]
Presented with little comment but we thought, given the exuberance surrounding Facebook, ZNGA’s rally, and FFN’s double, that we would point out that the four-week average volume on the NYSE has dropped to levels not seen since, yes you guessed it, 1999.
EURUSD and US equity futures slid lower this evening as late day exuberance leaked away. This was then accelerated briefly by comments from Germany’s FinMin Schaeuble in a German newspaper that Germany faces additional costs should Greece go bankrupt or bondholders face a larger write-down on GGBs. Bloomberg notes the comments suggest additional costs potentially amounting to billions stemming from losses at WestLB and Hypo RE. While this seems like a [...]
AMONG those with most to celebrate as the Chinese Communis
t Party marks its 90th birthday on July 1st are the country’s bourgeois reactionaries. Perhaps now the most important pillar of the party’s support, China’s middle class was virtually non-existent until it was recreated in the late 1990s. So far, the communists have amply fulfilled their side of a tacit bargain in which well-off city-dwellers have [...]
From David Rosenberg:
THE REAL CAUSE FOR THE RECENT EXUBERANCE
It may have been partly due to QE2 and partly due to the latest round of fiscal goodies, which gave sentiment a lift even though the change doesnâ€™t fill peopleâ€™s pockets until this quarter. And there is no doubt that the Europeans have managed to convince everyone that the debt problems are behind us ? that has [...]