‘Blame The Weather’ As UK Heads For Unprecedented Triple-Dip-Recession
How many ‘dips’ before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure? That is likely the question on Carney’s mind as he enters his role as top man at the BoE shortly. As The Guardian reports, an unprecedented third slump in four years looms for the UK as shoppers stay at home and vital transport links grind to a halt amid paralyzing weather. As snow [...]
by Tim Ayles
Is the Broken Window Theory a fallacy?
Sandy is the news. A natural disaster that will cost tens of billions of dollars and one that is sure to resurrect the 160 year old debate as to whether destruction of property is a good thing in the long run.
For newbie’s, the theory is this in a nutshell:
A hoodlum throws a rock through the baker’s window. The baker has to then [...]
BofA Sees Fed Assets Surpassing $5 Trillion By End Of 2014… Leading To $3350 Gold And $190 Crude
Bank of America just predicted at least 2 years and change of constant monetization, which would send the Fed’s balance sheet to grand total of just over $5,000,000,000,000 as the Fed adds another $2.2 trillion MBS and Treasury notional to the current total of $2.8 trillion.
…And speaking of hyperinflation (and our earlier note [...]
From Zero Hedge:
“Everything will collapse” is the consequence Gloom, Boom, & Doom’s Marc Faber sees from the Fed’s latest “stimulus” (and the fallacy and misconception of how money printing can help employment).
In a wondrously clarifying interview on Bloomberg TV this morning, Faber explained why he was “happy”, since “the asset values of his holdings will go up,” but as a responsible citizen he is worried because “the monetary policies of [...]
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu on “In the Loop” today that “the fallacy of monetary policy in the U.S. is to believe this money will go to the man on the street. It won’t. It goes to the Mayfair economy of the well-to-do people and boosts asset prices of Warhols.
Faber said that he is “very happy. Very good for the [...]
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Ron Paul: Federal Reserve a Fallacy, Flawed System
July 18 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Representative Ron Paul, a Texas Republican, offers an explanation of his criticism of the Federal Reserve and background on what he believes is at the root of America’s financial crisis. He [...]
July 18 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Representative Ron Paul, a Texas Republican, offers an explanation of his criticism of the Federal Reserve and background on what he believes is at the root of America’s financial crisis. He speaks at the House Financial Services Committee with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ron Paul: Federal Reserve a Fallacy, Flawed System
MAUMEE, Ohio — President Obama said that repealing his signature health care law is not an option.
“I’ll work with anybody who wants to work with me to continue to improve our health care system and our health care laws, but the law I passed is here to stay,” Obama said at a campaign event in Ohio.
(Also on POLITICO: Carney: ‘Fallacy’ to call ACA ‘broad-based tax’)
In the aftermath of the Supreme [...]
May 5, 2012
“In loco parentis” is a slogan the State takes seriously. Very seriously. Throughout history and around the world, governments have savaged citizens as lethally as the most abusive father when they aren’t smothering us worse than any helicopter-mom.
Leviathan also interprets the phrase literally when preying on its youngest serfs. Indeed, the beast and its apologists assume that bureaucrats and politicians are far wiser, more loving, and more [...]
Why politicians let MF Global investors get taken
GUEST EXPERT 04/20/2012
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James J Puplava CFP with Chris Whalen
In a riveting interview on the banking industry, Christopher Whalen of Tangent Capital Partners in New York joins Jim on Financial Sense Newshour to discuss the fallacy of “too big to fail,” conflicts of interest in the derivatives markets, problems with the 2005 bankruptcy laws, and why politicians let MF Global investors get taken.
Christopher Whalen is Senior Managing Director of Tangent Capital [...]
Federal debt has expanded by $9.5 trillion - from $5.7 trillion in 2000 to $15.2 trillion at the end of last year and, as Neal Soss of Credit Suisse notes, is still growing over $1 trillion a year (or $5 billion per day). The state of fiscal sustainability, as explained in this compendium of slides, is perilous, but as Soss notes - interest expense did not go up because interest rates fell faster [...]
We have discussed the money-on-the-sidelines fallacy a few times recently in the context of the circular money-flows (clear misunderstanding of the idea of a buyer and a seller) as well as mutual fund cash levels, retail sentiment, demographic shifts, and insider transactions. There is mounting evidence, as Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson notes, that ‘make no mistake…institutional investors are all-in‘ as the rolling beta of mutual funds relative to the [...]
From Jim Quinn at The Burning Platform:
I hear the term “de-leveraging” relentlessly from the mainstream media. The storyline that the American consumer has been denying themselves and paying down debt is completely, 100% false.
The proliferation of this Big Lie has been spread by Wall Street and their mouthpieces in the corporate media. The purpose is to convince the ignorant masses they have deprived themselves long enough and deserve to start [...]
Every time we see oil prices go up we hear that it will cause inflation and/or the economy will go into the tank.
… 7 out of the 8 postwar U.S. recessions had been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 led to a doubling in the price of oil in the fall of 1990 and was followed by the ninth postwar [...]
A big reason for the dour mood overcast on the market this morning is the failure of G-20 to resolve latent funding issues, with the IMF demanding more money from Germany for a global firewall, and Germany demanding more money from everyone else. A way to summarize events is that in lieu of any credible collateral left (the bulk of it has and will be pledged with the ECB in [...]
by Macro Man
Team Macro Man apologise for the lack of service recently. Last week saw their technical pullback first get Apple’d and then FED’d. And though there were glimmers of the technical turn, it looks as though it has morphed into a ”technical pause”. Despite the fizzling out of yesterday’s Euro summit there has been little sell-off which leaves TMM thinking that there is a chance of the European ”Policy by Sloth” may work.
TMM wrote [...]
The fallacy of the simple solution
Andrea Rossi stands in the 1 MW plant on October 6, 2011 Photo courtesy Focus.it
On October 28th, Andrea Rossi started a very public (if constrained) test of his 1MW cold fusion reactor, the e-Cat. The test was designed to demonstrate that the e-Cat could produce significant energy for some time based on a small initial input, thanks to a nickel-based catalyst. Although the test was public, the details were [...]
“Confusing Cause and Effect is a fallacy that has the following general form:
A and B regularly occur together.
Therefore A is the cause of B.
This fallacy requires that there is not, in fact, a common cause that actually causes both A and B.
This fallacy is committed when a person assumes that one event must cause another just because the events occur together. More formally, this fallacy involves drawing the [...]
Full must read report:
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market
by Danielle DiMartino Booth and David Luttrell
In the mid-1990s, the public policy goal of increasing the U.S. homeownership rate collided with a huge leap in financial innovation. Lenders shifted from originating and holding mortgages to originating and packaging them for sale to investors. These new financial products enabled millions [...]
by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate mainstream media? Here is the latest wisdom flowing from the lying mouthpieces of the ruling oligarchy (Wall Street, Washington DC, Mega-corporations):
The economy is recovering and employment is growing.
Consumers are deleveraging, saving and using cash for purchases.
Retailers are doing fantastic as consumers increase spending.
These are the three [...]
What’s good for the equity markets is not necessarily good for the economy. The equity markets are not going to create jobs. If you have a paper bag full of money are you going to go out and hire workers and take risk with healthcare and all these other regulatory restrictions? No, you are going to go ahead and buy high yield, you will buy [...]
The US wanted continued stimulus and thin-air money printing and made its plea for this policy stance very publicly in the days and weeks leading up to the G20 meeting.
The reasons for this stance are numerous and complex, but one stands out prominently: Elections are coming up. If you are an incumbent, now is not the time to cut off the stimulus efforts.
The story here is that the US wants [...]
One reason we had economic improvement was the fallacy that Europe was somehow stronger than we were and would not fall into the credit collapse hole we dug and then fell into. They are huge importers from us and Asia and with foreign earnings for our companies in our markets rising and looking even better when converted into devalued dollars, it gave our investors more confidence than they should have [...]