See how that line running from left to right extends behind the vertical line that marks the origin of Earth (See Figure 1)?
Basically, what this graph posits, that if life becomes more complex at a steadily exponential rate that can be extrapolated from recent evolutionary history, then life predates Earth.
It comes from a thought-provoking paper published at arXiv (a non-peer-reviewed journal that’s a favorite of mathematicians and physicists for pre-press papers), [...]
Just when you think it can’t possibly get any worse, it does.
A Buried Volcano In Southeast Louisiana – A Paper Written in 1976
“An exploratory well, the Shell Oil Company, State Lease 3956 No. 1, Offshore St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, was completed in 1963 at a total depth of 8538 feet. The last 1300 feet of hole was cored and drilled through volcanic material of Late Cretaceous Age. The location of [...]
Report shows gasoline prices could be approaching the “danger zone”
… Watching the Daytona 500 from the “danger zone,” where cars whip by at high speeds of around 175 mph to 200 mph — but can also burst through the walls in a crash — can be a thrill.
But gasoline’s “danger zone” may be just plain scary.
At $3.75, retail gasoline prices are nearly back in the “danger zone” marked by [...]
October 10, 2012
As class-warfare implicitly breaks out – trumpeted by our political leaders – it seems that there is another, much more relevant, trend that is occurring that strikes at the heart of our nation. With Friday’s jobs number still fresh in our minds, Citi’s Steve Englander takes a look at one small slice of the demographics subject and found a rather concerning and little discussed fact. Employment-to-population ratios among older [...]
October 8, 2012
Excerpted from PIMCO Viewpoints: What’s Your Number at the Zero Bound?
The math of what happens when assumed rates of return go down, driven by a pro-active ZIRP from the Fed, is pretty straightforward. To make up for this, PIMCO notes that those approaching retirement have three choices: a) save more, b) work longer, or c) tighten their belts in retirement. Each of these are clear, individual family choices, but what happens [...]
While hope remains, Citigroup’s Steven Englander notes that the much stronger than expected ADP has probably shifted market expectations towards neutral, but like us he believes the market remains more hopeful of an aggressive fed than wary of disappointment. In parentheses below, we indicate what we think will be negative, neutral and positive surprises from an investor viewpoint.
Negative surprise – downgrade of forecast but nothing much else in way of change from [...]
There are frequent claims that the U.S. economy has entered a period of “deflation.” These claims are totally unfounded and are false. Deflation can only be a persistent state of general price decline. In fact, in examining price trends, the U.S. is experiencing shocking price increases of over 15% per annum. To illustrate this, Figure 1 shows the Continuous Commodities Index, CCI over the past ten years.
Figure 1: [...]
Last week’s bullish signal in the “dumb money” indicator has come and gone just like that – poof! I guess sentiment isn’t really too bearish. Yet, can you blame investors for being less bearish since it is all but certain that some central bank will be intervening on the slightest drop in the equity markets. As least that is what investors seem to believe. Despite investors’ certainty in a certain outcome, [...]
Like my whiny children, who after 30 minutes into a 6 hour car drive, investors are asking themselves, “Are we there yet?” After all, the SP500 is down a little over 8% from their highs in the past 3 weeks, and investors want to know if the selling is done and if this is a time to buy. Of course, it was only 3 short weeks ago that we were [...]
In the absence of extreme bearish sentiment (i.e., bull signal) developing, it is unlikely that any upward price move in the major equity indices will last more than a couple of days and it is likely that selling will resume once those prices move towards the recent cyclical highs. Having more bears than bulls at the start of a rally provides short covering fuel and buyers on the sidelines willing [...]
The “dumb money” indicator has become more neutral suggesting that the bulls have lost enthusiasm for this bull market. As can be seen in figure 1 (below), the indicator has dropped below the upper trading band (green arrow). From this perspective, the playbook becomes real simple. If the indicator moves back above the upper trading band, then investors are putting risk back on, and all in likelihood, this would represent [...]
For weeks now, I have been using phrases in these weekly articles on sentiment like “the best, most accelerated gains are behind us” and “we are closer to the end then the beginning”. When we look at the charts, the SP500 has been essentially flat for the past 8 weeks, so every now and then, I guess I can get it right. If you have been a buyer over this [...]
by Gail E. Tverberg
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released full-year 2011 world oil production data. In this post, I would like show some graphs of recent data, and provide some views as to where this leads with respect to future production.
World oil supply is not growing very much
The fitted line in Figure 1 suggests a “normal” growth in oil supplies (including substitutes) of 1.6% a year, based on the 1983 [...]
From The Reformed Broker:
Pimco Managing Director Mark Kiesel is out with an outrageously good piece of research on the potential of U.S. energy development and the positive impact domestic production has on our economy.
In particular, I want to show you a handful of charts that I think speak volumes about how we can change the game – you may recall my own rant on this topic from a week or [...]
by thetechnicaltake on 01/22/2012 15:52 -0500
The “dumb money” indicator has become extremely bullish (bear signal), and this is what one would expect with rising prices. The higher prices go the more bulls that are recruited. But is it the end of the road for the rally? Not necessarily so. In 1995, 2003, 2009, and Q4 2010/Q1 2011 we saw the phenomenon that I have dubbed “it takes bulls to make a bull market”. It [...]
There is a sense of incredulousness regarding the recent price action. The market seems to levitate day in and day out despite the news. Dips are limited to 15 minutes of intra-day action. Volume? We don’t need no stinking volume. From this observer’s vantage point, it just doesn’t smell right, but who am I to argue with the market? Since the low on October 4, the SP500 has traveled 20%. [...]
We start the new year like we ended the old year: with a mixed sentiment picture. The Rydex market timer is extremely bullish, and this is a bear signal. The “dumb money” indicator is neutral and company insiders are as well. Overall, my interpretation is bearish. Sustainable price moves usually start when there are too many bears, and it is short covering that is the fuel that sparks a price rise. After [...]
I am sure you have heard all of the pronouncements that the bull market in gold is over. All sorts of reasons have been given from strength in the Dollar to the “you better run for the hills” price is now under the 200 day moving average for the first time in 10 months. I am not going to “poo poo” the price action, because it has been ugly, but [...]
Is Wall Street a giant leech sucking life out of the U.S. economy? This is the implication of a essay by NYU Stern’s Thomas Philippon at VoxEU.
Philippon says the finance industry seems to have gotten less efficient over time.
As evidence he looks at financial profits as a share of GDP, which have grown from 2% in 1910 to 9% [Figure 1].
He notes how the IT Revolution led to greater efficiency in [...]
The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of economic expansions and contractions. Their official recession calls tend to be after the fact, and usually after much pain has been suffered by investors in the stock market. Even now, there is a great debate amongst economists. Is the US economy in a recession? Is it a soft patch? Are we headed for [...]
Why Did Gold Go Down:
In recent weeks the gold price has fallen significantly from around $1900 to $1535 (intraday). Gold is now trading near our Q3 target of $1650. The size of the move was far more significant compared to other recent unwinds, like those in May or August. One of the key factors for our long-term bullish view on gold is Asian demand. As [...]
After last week’s selling pressure, investor sentiment remains ugly and bearish. This is expected. Nonetheless, prices on the SP500 still remain above our “line in the sand” at 1133.65. This level was tested and so far has held. This sets up a low risk entry for those looking to go long. But understand this is bear market, and capital should be protected vigorously. A weekly [...]
Only two days ago, I wrote that there is a “potential for a bear market”. Potential? Forgetaboutit. This is a bear market.
My analysis really has little to do with Monday’s price action which saw the major equity averages down over 6%. While the closes below key pivot points foretold possible trouble ahead, it is those other important charts that I warned about that are spelling “b-e-a-r- [...]
Figure 1 is a weekly figure of the US
Dollar Index. This is the same graph we have shown for weeks upon weeks
now, and with a weekly close below the key pivot at 74.62, there is a
high likelihood that the Dollar Index will trade lower.
Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
Key pivot points are the best areas of support and resistance, and at the end of this week, price will close below a [...]
A few weeks ago Barclays compiled a useful chart representing the largest holders of Greek debt. Today, the bank’s Laurent Fransolet has issued an update “of the table “Top 40 holders of Greek government bonds and Greek debt” (Figure 1), in which we show updated holdings for Q4 10 for AXA and add KA Finanz from Austria to the list. We also clarify that [...]
Via Adrian Douglas Of Market Force Analysis
Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages
Since reaching new highs at the end of 2010 gold and silver have been sold off, and the selling has been particularly intense in the last few days. The news on the economy is almost exclusively bullish for the precious metals. From the price action one might be falsely led to believe that [...]
Last week, we pointed out when the BDIY dipped below 2000 for the first time since August. In the next three days, the index slide has accelerated and after dropping 3% just overnight, is back to 1830, just 130 points away from the 2010 lows printed in July. And while the index topped in early September following a brief and uninspired climb, it has [...]
Letter To CFTC Commissioner Chilton On Trends In Bullion Bank Gold and Silver Short Positions
TO: Bart Chilton, Commissioner of the CFTC
From: Adrian Douglas, Director of GATA
Date: Dec 13, 2010
I would like to bring to your attention some very disturbing trends in the BPR before your meeting on December 16th regarding position limits.
In figure 1 below I have charted the silver short position of the US banks [...]
Every massive inventory accumulation…. has an equal and opposite effect on GDP. To all those who snickered at the earlier chart of the BDIY, we recommend you read the following brief blurb from Nordea, whose implications may put everything you have heard about a surge in GDP in Q4 and Q1 (primarily from the Goldman bull brigade) in a just slightly different light.
We have [...]