China is seeing slower economic growth.
Concerns are building over a massive credit bubble, and some say it is no longer an engine of global growth.
Excess capacity — in which demand for products is less than potential supply — continues to be one of China’s biggest problems.
An excellent piece by Jamil Anderlini in today’s Financial Times looks at how excess capacity and subsidies are threatening specific industries and imperiling the Chinese economy.
A major [...]
Good stuff here from Didier Sornette. Sornette has done some superb risk on behavioral finance and risk management. This recent Ted Talk is a must watch:
Inside Job is a documentary that encompasses everything we would need to know about what exactly happened in the Financial Crisis, which we are still facing today. This film which is directed by Charles H. Ferguson describes the corruption and greed by many of the most famous Financial companies we know of. There are five parts to the film which talk about “How we got here”, “The Bubble”, “The Crisis”, [...]
John Thain, former chairman and CEO of Merrill Lynch and COO at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on “Market Makers” today that a crisis like the one in 2008 could “absolutely” happen again.” Thain said, “If anything, too big to fail is a bigger problem because the biggest financial institutions are more concentrated today than they were. Dodd Frank did not solve too big to [...]
When President Obama meets new Chinese president Xi Jinping in California on Friday, it will be a big contrast from his first official meeting with the previous leader, Hu Jintao, back in April 2009.
Then, China was still basking in the afterglow of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, when its spectacular opening ceremonies and its pace-setting 51 gold medals declared that China had arrived on the world stage.
From Casey Research:
Nick Giambruno: Joining me now is David Galland, the managing director of Casey Research. His internationalization story, which involved moving his life and his family from the U.S. to Argentina, was recently featured inInternationalize Your Assets, a free online video from Casey Research. He is perfectly suited to help us better understand some of the important lessons in internationalization that Argentina offers. Welcome, David.
David Galland: Nice to be [...]
I’m in Milan City @ 3.94 Euros/Kg
Thats the price:
In Italy, Austerity Is Served on Homemade Bread
Money is tight, so Italians are upending decades of food culture by frequenting bakeries less and baking more loaves at home.
In the land that invented La Cucina Povera – literally, the poor man’s kitchen — it’s no surprise to witness an increase in home baking. Figures recently releasedby Coldiretti, the association of Italian farmers, are staggering. Italians are buying record amounts of [...]
The Next 24: Bernanke, Jobs in Focus, and More
Japanese Stocks Down Over 2% At Open; Nikkei 16% Off Highs
LIVE: Thousands Of Companies Around The World Are Revealing The Truth About The Global Economy
The Sub-Prime Mortgage Market Is Heating Up Again
Kinda like it did during the financial crisis.
Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up; Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years; Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/sweden-housing-crash-coming-up-average.html#1fP84isqQkThW4c1.99
Heads Up: Developments [...]
A new set of regulations that most people have never even heard of that was developed by an immensely powerful central banking organization that most people do not even know exists is going to have a dramatic affect on the global financial system over the next several years. The new set of regulations is known as “Basel III”, and it was developed by the Bank for International Settlements. The [...]
Federal regulators have softened a new regulation intended to make the derivatives market—which helped cause the financial crisis—more competitive among banks. A derivative is a contract whose value is based on other underlying assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes.
Currently, just five banks control 90% of all derivatives contracts: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had [...]
“Central bankers claim that they aren’t starting a currency war,” wrote market expert Ed Yardeni. “They deny that their policies are aimed at the competitive devaluation of their currencies. Let’s call it competitive ultra-easing.”
The Federal Reserve has famously been keeping rates low since the financial crisis. In recent months, the Bank of Japan has made stunning calls to devalue its own currency.
In recent weeks, many of the world’s other central banks have been cutting rates [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
Japan’s Nikkei, after rallying over 70% since November, just collapsed 11% in less than two days. Looking at the chart, it’s pretty clear where this thing is heading: the same as the NASDAQ in 2000.
This is the problem with economic policy that focuses on pushing stocks higher: eventually the collapsing economy comes home to roost and stocks implode. We saw this in 2000 and 2008. We’re currently [...]
Is the coming financial collapse going to be inflationary or deflationary? Are we headed for rampant inflation or crippling deflation? This is a subject that is hotly debated by economists all over the country. Some insist that the wild money printing that the Federal Reserve is doing combined with out of control government spending will eventually result in hyperinflation. Others point to all of the deflationary factors in our economy [...]
Loose Central Bank Policies Looking Increasingly Dangerous, BIS Official Warns
The latest to take up the refrain is Jaime Caruana, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, who warned in an unusually frank speech in London that, while the ultra-low interest rates and ultra-easy monetary policy adopted by advanced economy central banks might have been the right response to the crisis when it broke, they are looking increasingly dangerous the longer they [...]
Gold and Bitcoin: the Currencies of the Future — James Turk
JT Long of The Gold Report (5/15/13)
Europe, says James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney, is in the midst of two crises—one in the banking sector, the other related to economic activity, and capital is needed to solve both. As to the allegedly strong dollar, Turk, in this interview with The Gold Report, suggests comparing it to the price of [...]
Jeff Rense & Lindsey Williams – The Coming World Financial Crisis
Japan’s desperately trying to reach equilibrium. Nature and the laws of physics are clearly at work here much to the panic of the Japanese elite. You can see this with the “economic” related population crash. More people are dying than being born. I note the “experts” are trying to blame everything from popular culture, to the internet, to the feminization of men for the collapse.
The truth is, young males in [...]
Fed Balance Sheet Rises Above $3.3 Trillion, Again a Record
“The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded again this week, hitting a new record as the central bank continues its bond-buying program.
The Fed’s asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday increaaed by $7.42 billion from a week earlier to $3.325 trillion, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday.
Holdings of U.S. Treasury securities increased by $6.35 billion in the past [...]
PIMCO’s Bill Gross – Dow 15,000: Don’t Fight the Fed, But Be Afraid
It’s hard to know what to make of this week’s record Dow performance except to say, “Don’t fight the Fed.” More than four years after the peak of the financial crisis, quantitative easing—the Federal Reserve strategy of buying up assets like bonds and mortgage-backed securities in order to goose the economy – is still going strong, and so is the [...]
*The Euro is slowly collapsing.
*Sovereign European Debt Issues of some European countries are turning turtle and there is a MOUNTAIN of derivities written utilizing those debt issues.
*Deutsche Bank has now “beat out” JP Morgan Chase’s derivities exposure book (who thought that was even possible?!!) … with a LOT LESS capital to protect it against down stream insolvencies (which is an increasing possibility due to the problems with European Sovereign Debt [...]
All over the United States we are witnessing unprecedented shortages of ammunition, physical gold and physical silver. Recent events have helped fuel a “buying frenzy” that threatens to spiral out of control. Gun shops all over the nation are reporting that they have never seen it this bad, and in many cases any ammo that they are able to get is being sold even before it hits the shelves. The ammo [...]
Last week’s collapse of a European carbon emissions scheme makes an agreed approach to climate change all the more urgent
The world is going to fry – unless there is change soon. There is weakening political will to make national and international targets for carbon reduction stick, no strong business and financial coalition prepared to lead and a weakening groundswell of public opinion prepared to foot the bill.
Instead, the international consensus [...]
mybudget360.com / by mybudget360 / April 19, 2013
US households are tapped out with debt. Debt matters. Contrary to what is being spouted out over the airwaves having too much debt does cause problems. American households tipped over this point when total household debt reached annual GDP. This is a critical juncture and results in massive deleveraging. There doesn’t seem to be answer or really a major priority in trying to figure out [...]
A growing trend towards excessive risk-taking and lack of action to repair broken bank balance sheets could trigger a “chronic” new phase in the financial crisis, the International Monetary fund has warned.
by Szu Ping Chan, The Telegraph:
The IMF said that while near-term risks had abated in response to loose central bank policies, reforms to repair ailing banks were not yet complete and could pose a threat to future stability, particularly in [...]
Is the United States about to experience another major economic downturn? Unfortunately, the pattern that is emerging right now is exactly the kind of pattern that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash and a deep recession. History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession [...]
“Nearly five years after the financial crisis started, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing fragmentation of the global economy, the very visible split between the dynamism of emerging countries, the US’ resistance and the persistent weakening of the eurozone.”
This Is The Fed’s Worst Fear: Falling Unemployment, With Growth Still Weak
According to Morgan Stanley‘s chief economist Vincent Reinhart, this represents the Fed’s #1 fear.
…the Fed’s chief fear will be that market participants will expect policy tightening to come sooner and more sharply than is consistent with sustaining the economic expansion. All the talk about tapering off, or even ending, QE has been careful to be conditional on the outlook. If [...]