And so the latest Goldman recommendation to muppets is now officially a dud.
Closing our Long Russell recommendation with a modest potential loss
We are closing our long Russell 2000 recommendation with a modest potential loss, initiated on March 15 following the better-than-expected data in the first of the regional surveys. The recommendation was predicated on (i) still friendly, if not accelerating, US macro data, (ii) supportive monetary policy, and (iii) better [...]
Germany’s recent ‘agreement’ to expand Europe’s fire department (as Goldman euphemestically describes the EFSF/ESM firewall) seems to confirm the prevailing policy view that bigger ‘firewalls’ would encourage investors to buy European sovereign debt – since the funding backstop will prevent credit shocks spreading contagiously. However, as Francesco Garzarelli notes today, given the Euro-area’s closed nature (more than 85% of EU sovereign debt is held by its residents) and theincreased ‘interconnectedness’ of [...]
While we await for Thomas Stolper to issue his latest flip flop and to go long the EURUSD again (“tactically”, not “strategically”), here is Francesco Garzarelli’s take on the Greek bailout.Here is the biggest issue: “Increased likelihood of CDS: Moreover, higher losses inflicted on the private sector, involving the likely activation of CACs and the triggering of CDS, represent sources of near-term volatility.” Bingo. Now as we pointed out in the [...]
Back on January 23 we first reported that Goldman had opened a new trade whereby it was shorting 10 Year bonds. To wit: As of a few hours ago, Goldman’s Francesco Garzarelli has officially told the firm’s clients to go ahead and short 10 Year Treasurys via March 2012 futures, with a 126-00 target. While Garzarelli is hardly Stolper, the fact that Goldman is now openly buying Treasurys two days ahead of this week’s [...]
As of a few hours ago, Goldman’s Francesco Garzarelli has officially told the firm’s clients to go ahead and short 10 Year Treasurys via March 2012 futures, with a 126-00 target. While Garzarelli is hardly Stolper (and we will have more on the latest Stolpering out in a second), the fact that Goldman is now openly buying Treasurys two days ahead of this week’s FOMC statement makes us wonder just [...]
After yet another summit this weekend, European leaders still have not finalized a solution to save Greece from default and recapitalize Eurozone banks.
“Work is going well on the banks,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at the Brussels summit yesterday. “On the question of Greece, things are moving along. We’re not there yet.”
Sunday’s meeting marks the 13th summit by European leaders in less than two years, and now all eyes are [...]
Below are some reflections published yesterday evening on the unfolding events in Greece and Portugal. The thoughts on Greece add to what I wrote on 21 April (‘What to Make of the Greek Debt Restructuring Talk’). My thoughts on Portugal benefit from several discussions with the private and official sector in Lisbon last Wednesday and Thursday.
We are broadly sticking to the investment strategy we [...]
We can only hope the Spanish, Italian and French packages are deemed more satisfactory by the market.
On the Irish Package and EMU Sovereign Debt
In an emergency meeting this afternoon, EU Finance Ministers and the IMF have agreed to extend financial support to Ireland. According to EU Commissioner Rehn, no â€˜haircutsâ€™ will be applied to holders of senior bonds issued by the Irish banks. However, we would [...]