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Even The Pros Hate Everything About This Market And The Economy Blame Bernanke! Blame of the Bank of Japan! Just don’t enjoy Dow 15,000. Yesterday we pointed out that on the occasion of the Dow hitting 15,000, it was still clear that people still detested this stock market rally, based on the fact that everyone screams “RIGGED” or “PONZI” or “BERNANKE” on every uptick. But it’s not just mouth-breathing comment-section trolls who do this. The pros [...] From All Star Charts: In addition to the United States, it’s really been the Asia Pacific region that’s been leading global equities. Obviously Japan has been ripping all year long. But Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand have been rocking all year as well. Singapore, on the other hand, has just been consolidating sideways for almost five months. Until last week. We’ve been waiting patiently for this one. In early February, we were hoping it [...] What you should know about the latest economic slowdown The slowdown in economic activity is right on schedule – for the 4th year in a row The “spring slowdown” is here again. As discussed earlier (see post), the previous three years saw a strong start in the US, followed by a slowdown in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing. What’s especially troubling this year is that we are also seeing a corresponding slowdown in [...] Global Financial Stress Is Starting To Grow, And That’s Bad News For Stocks Global financial stress, a coincident indicator for global stock prices, is flaring up again in the wake of the crisis in Cyprus. The blue line on the chart below shows BofA Merrill Lynch‘s Global Financial Stress Index turned upside down to illustrate how it correlates with global equities, proxied by the MSCI All Country World Index (the red line). While global equities have [...] Bob Janjuah, the bearish contributing strategist at Nomura, just provided an update to his September 18 note.
In a nutshell, Janjuah has pulled the plug on his bearish tactical call that stocks would fall 20% to 25% this year. From his note today: “As discussed in that note, based on weekly closing levels at the end of last week, my stop loss on my risk-off “short S&P500? trade, initiated last month on 21 August at [...] Mac Slavo
Our incumbent President says that things are getting better, jobs are being created, and America is on the road to recovery. His opponent, Governor Mitt Romney, says the opposite, but claims he has a plan that will turn things around and bring prosperity back. According to free market proponent Peter Schiff, it doesn’t matter who wins, because the crunch is coming – and it’s going to become apparent [...] Despite high-flying equity indices, there is some underlying concern that all is not rosy in the global economy (and that Fed/ECB/PBoC might not save the day this time). As Morgan Stanley notes, the overcrowded trades are overweight US and within US overweight defensives – implying cyclicals are starting to reflect the current global macro weakness and that there are further downgrades to global growth forecasts to come. Expectations for a repeat [...] Mac Slavo
Our incumbent President says that things are getting better, jobs are being created, and America is on the road to recovery. His opponent, Governor Mitt Romney, says the opposite, but claims he has a plan that will turn things around and bring prosperity back. According to free market proponent Peter Schiff, it doesn’t matter who wins, because the crunch is coming – and it’s going to become apparent [...] Bruno J. Navarro A third round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve would be good for stocks but not real growth, former Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Wednesday. “We think QE3 would be good for the stock market, not necessarily for real economic growth. QEs are like morphine. It makes you feel better, makes the headlines look better, pushes up risk asset prices but doesn’t translate [...] KWN Today top Citibank analyst, Tom Fitzpatrick, spoke with King World News about global markets, gold and the US dollar. Fitzpatrick, a 28 year veteran and top analyst at Citibank, which has $1.3 trillion in assets, said that, despite bounces, stock markets will continue to head lower in the coming weeks. Fitzpatrick included two important charts, but first, here is what he had to say about the moves in the US [...] From GoldCore: Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,585.50, EUR 1,221.87, and GBP 984.17 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,627.00, EUR 1,250.77 and GBP 1,008.99 per ounce. Silver is trading at $28.77/oz, €22.27/oz and £17.92/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,506.75/oz, palladium at $613.20/oz and rhodium at $1,300/oz. Gold dropped $31.90 or 1.95% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,606.80/oz. Gold gradually fell again in Asian and European trading and [...] Goldman’s Dominic Wilson is out with a new note offering guidance to investors on whether to finally jump off the stock market, and get more bearish.
Here’s the key threshold: We think that risk assets are likely to move higher as long as US data remain consistent with GDP growth of somewhat more than 2%. The next several hours may be decisive… Given more mixed news in March, and the likelihood that weather-related boosts [...] By: Nouriel Roubini While recent developments seem to suggest some positive news for the global economy, there are at least four downside risks that could materialize this year – undermining global growth and eventually negatively affecting investor confidence and market valuations of risky assets. RIO DE JANEIRO – Since late last year, a series of positive developments has boosted investor confidence and led to a sharp rally in risky assets, starting with global [...] By Nicholas Larkin - Nov 25, 2011 12:23 AM PT Gold traders are more bullish after investors accumulated the biggest-ever hoard of the metal, with Europe’s deepening debt crisis driving them to protect their wealth with this year’s second-best performing commodity. Eighteen of 26 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise next week. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold reached a record 2,350.8 metric tons on Nov. 23, now valued at $127.4 billion, according [...] Larry Fink of BlackRock and Bill Gross of PIMCO sat down with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker for an exclusive conversation hosted at UCLA Anderson School of Management on Thursday.
Fink and Gross discussed their investment strategies, the economy and job creation in the U.S. See select highlights below.
The special one-hour event, “Gross | Fink: Heavy Hitters,” airs tonight at 10pm ET/7pm PT on Bloomberg Television.
**BLOOMBERG TELEVISION**
Video for viewing and embedding here:
Fink [...] by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds Could the Euro Trigger A 2008-Like Crash? Si, Oui, Yes. If we dispense with all the fancy stuff, we end up with a simple see-saw with the euro and global equities on one end and the much-hated U.S. dollar on the other. If we scrape away the ever-hopeful headlines predicting a new figurehead lackey or another vote will magically fix Greece, Italy, the euro, Europe’s crumbling [...] by ZH Nomura Bob is back with another hotly anticipated if, unfortunately, grammatically flawless, market strategy piece. Short and sweet, Bob as usual cuts right to the point. Bob’s World – Still overreacting? Most commentators now seem to accept that what is happening is not an overreaction, rather the markets are at last on the way to fully pricing in the sad state of the global economy and global [...] Chris Fournier, On Tuesday August 30, 2011, 8:58 am EDT The global economic crisis is leading to a possible “developed economy” recession in the U.S. and Europe, which may be hard to alleviate, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross. In this environment, the world’s biggest manager of bond funds favors investing in Australia, Mexico, Brazil and Canada, along with non-dollar currencies that have strong ties to the Asian continent, Gross, [...] Update: SOCGEN NOT IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE FOR COMMENT: RTRS. Following earlier news that French CDS hit a record high on a rumor of an imminent French downgrade, the bloodbath in financials, first started in Italy, with 3 consecutive halts in Intesa causing endless headaches for Italin investors, the red tide has now shifted over to France, where SocGen, three years after fooling the Chairsatan that the world was ending [...] Gold futures extended a rally to a record, topping $1,800 an ounce, on mounting demand for a haven as global equities plunged amid escalating U.S. and European debt woes. The MSCI World (MXWO) Index of shares approached the lowest level since September as U.S. stocks tumbled. The euro dropped as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar, and the yen strengthened close to a post-World War II high [...] U.S. stocks climbed, erasing earlier losses and preventing the longest Dow Jones Industrial Average slump since 1978, as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will start another stimulus program. Treasuries 10-year notes erased gains and the dollar slid. The Dow halted an eight-day drop, gaining 29.82 points to 11,896.44 at 4 p.m. in New York. The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent after yesterday’s 2.6 percent plunge erased the gauge’s 2011 advance and [...] From GoldCore Eurozone Debt Crisis Deepens Sending Euro Lower and Gold to New Record at EUR 1,080/oz The euro, global equities and bonds in peripheral Eurozone countries are all lower this morning on heightened concerns about the debt crisis in the Eurozone. The euro has fallen against all currencies and is now at a record low against gold at EUR 1,080.21/oz. Silver is lower [...] Anne Gudefin, PIMCO’s global equities portfolio manager, likes gold. “The largest position in [our] fund is gold, which we think is a very good form of protection against what can go wrong,” said Gudefin in an interview with Fortune published on May 12. View Full Image “We were encouraged by the fact that a lot of the central banks, especially in Asia, are big buyers. We think that’s an [...] Overall, based on our current understanding of the situation in Japan, NEW YORK — Wall Street tumbled at Tuesday’s opening bell, following Japan’s stock market sharply lower as the earthquake-shattered country faced an unfolding nuclear crisis. Japan’s Nikkei stock index nose-dived nearly 11 percent Tuesday after a radiation leak was detected at a crippled power plant and residents were warned to stay indoors, sending global equities sharply lower in what could be a prolonged bout of turmoil for [...] |
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Marc Faber: markets will crash like in 1987 if stocks rally without QE3
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, spoke with Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and said that, “I think the market will have difficulties to move up strongly unless we have a massive QE3 and if it moves and makes the high above 1422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987.”
Faber went on to say that, “I do not have a high [...]