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From Global Economic Trend Analysis: A Gallup random dial poll of 607 small businesses conducted November 12-16 2012 asked the question “Over the next 12 months, do you expect the overall number of job positions at your company to increase a lot, increase a little, stay the same, decrease a little, or decrease a lot?” The net survey results show Small-Business Owners’ Hiring Intentions Plunge. U.S. small-business owners expect to add fewer net [...] Bearish fund manager John Hussman says the latest selling is the classic version of how overvalued markets come to their end… Since late-February, our estimates of the market’s prospective return/risk tradeoff (over a set of horizons from 2 weeks to 18 months) have persistently held in the worst 0.5% of all historical observations. It’s always important to emphasize that we try to align ourselves with the average return/risk profile that has historically accompanied the particular set of investment conditions [...] From Keith Jurow on The Money Game: After being one of the few analysts who was correct in stating for the past two years that there is no housing bottom in sight, it’s time for me to tell you what I see ahead. Housing pundits are nearly unanimous in declaring that housing markets are showing signs of bottoming. This is nonsense! … Let’s put this housing credit bubble and collapse in historical perspective. [...] “I am getting increasingly concerned for a tornado threat across south-central PA into western MD and WV” on Friday, “Severe weather moves into the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley today. Friday, it’s PA, MD, WV, VA,” https://twitter.com/#!/breakingweather Severe storms possible later today/tonight in parts of TX, LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, KY, IL, IN, OH, GA, MO http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk.
Jesse Ferrell It was exactly one year ago this weekend. After a seven-month meteoric rise that began the moment Ben Bernanke completed his now legendary Jackson Hole speech in late August 2010, Silver reached a climatic peak on April 28, 2011. The year that has since passed has been far more humbling for the white metal. But with speculative cleansing comes new opportunity. Although the price activity in Silver is now relatively [...] From Jim Quinn’s The Burning Platform: “Human history seems logical in afterthought but a mystery in forethought. Writers of history have a way of describing interwar societies as coursing from postwar to prewar as though people alive at the time knew when that transition occurred.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning Watching pompous politicians, egotistical economists, arrogant investment geniuses, clueless media pundits, and self-proclaimed experts on the Great Depression predict an economic [...] by Phoenix Capital Research
Since August I’ve been calling for a collapse in Europe. Obviously I’m way early here, largely due to the ECB’s intervention in the markets. I also underestimated the extent to which leaders would push to hold things together. After all, Greece had already received bailouts in excess of 150% of its GDP and still posted a GDP loss of 6.8% in 2011. It’s hard to believe they’d want to accept more austerity measures [...] by Robert Wenzel Economic Policy Journal The answer: Very quickly. Amity Shlaes is a senior fellow in economic history at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her writings are followed carefully by the top of the top at CFR. And to a significant degree she uses Hayekian business cycle theory in analyzing the economy. She also has the distinct honor of being hated and attacked by the Keynesian Paul Krugman. In other words, take her very [...] From Economic Policy Journal: … Amity Shlaes is a senior fellow in economic history at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her writings are followed carefully by the top of the top at CFR. And to a significant degree, she uses Hayekian business cycle theory in analyzing the economy. She also has the distinct honor of being hated and attacked by the Keynesian Paul Krugman. In other words, take her very seriously. Yesterday, I [...] Washington’s Blog Yes, Obama Claims Power to Kill Americans on U.S. Soil Fox News reports: FBI Director Robert Mueller on Wednesday said he would have to go back and check with the Department of Justice whether Attorney General Eric Holder’s “[criteria] for the targeted killing of Americans also applied to Americans inside the U.S. *** “I have to go back. Uh, I’m not certain whether that was addressed or not,” Mueller said when asked by [...] Has the centralized nation-state model of global capitalism finally reached its autumn? Predicting the end of Capitalism has been a popular pastime since the term was coined. The reason why this particular parlor game is so fruitless is that Capitalism is not monolithic or static–and neither is socialism, the other great ideological umbrella that covers a variety of systems and iterations of State/collective ownership of assets. If we take the long-term historical perspective [...] Essential Intelligence This report reviews the positions around the Middle-East Poker table, in the wake of the recent Russo-Iranian overtake of Syria, and while the whole world speculates about the true intentions of the USA regarding this region. The issues are covered from a broad historical perspective and delve into a detailed analysis of their military, geopolitical and economic aspects . The American Game plan The American purpose is not to [...] by Jeff Clark of Casey Research Pullbacks in Perspective If you’re bullish about the long term for gold and silver, it’s mouthwatering to watch them undergo a major correction after taking earlier profits that added to your deployable cash. For a little historical perspective on pullbacks, consider the following charts. The current 15.6% gold decline, while considered a “major” correction, is not out of the ordinary, particularly following the late summer spike. And after [...] From Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Casey Research: If you’re bullish about the long term for gold and silver, it’s mouthwatering to watch them undergo a major correction after taking earlier profits that added to your deployable cash. For a little historical perspective on pullbacks, consider the following… The current 15.6% gold decline, while considered a “major” correction, is not out of the ordinary, particularly following the late summer spike. And [...] By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Fasten your seat belts: The stock market is unlikely to calm down any time soon. On the contrary, we’re likely to see more of the same kind of volatility that has characterized the markets in recent months — such as seen this week by Monday’s loss of $268 billion in the collective value of all U.S. stocks, followed by a $271 billion gain on [...] The idea of peak everything has made a comeback over the last ten years, and it may not be a coincidence that this discussion has paralleled the rising prices of many commodities since 2000. However, thinking about resource scarcity is nothing new. Many alive in the 1970s will remember the book Limits to Growth, which is still debated decades after its initial publication. Whether or [...] via Washington Times: White House aide Samantha Power, a former news reporter turned anti-genocide advocate, said President Obama’s two-year campaign to promote human rights helped trigger the uprising in Libya against Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s rule. In a speech Monday at Columbia University, Ms. Power, director of multilateral affairs at the National Security Council, defended her support for the military operation against Libyan government forces and said the president’s efforts, [...] by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. It will come as no surprise that we continue to anticipate poor 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 over the coming decade. Our present estimate is about 3.3% annually, which includes dividends. That is about 1% less than the 10-year total return that we estimated just a few months ago, but this should make sense: historically, to the extent that [...] via Businessweek: “The climate we’ll have after this legislation is extremely favorable for wealthy families,” says Jeffrey Cooper, a professor at Quinnipiac University School of Law and a former estate planner who has studied the history of U.S. tax law. Low Income Tax The good news for the rich starts with income tax rates, which for top income groups would remain 35 percent , a rate enacted by [...] This shouldn’t really be surprising for those who understand that we are in deflationary depression…By Al Coryell Since the 1970s, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International (EWI), has been warning that Elliott Wave Theory is predicting a major top to a giant three century wave which R.N. Elliott dubbed the Grand Super Cycle wave or GSC. The GSC wave spans back to the 18th century encompassing the South Sea Company Bubble in the early 1700s and all history since. [...] |
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