What traders should know about the super-profitable rally in housing

From Kimble Charting Solutions:

The Dow Jones Home Construction Index has been “HOT” over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 60%.

The rally now has this important index touching a couple of resistance lines and a Fibonacci Extension level at the same time.

At the same time this index is facing a couple of resistance levels, its…

Read full article (with chart)…

PLUNGE: GDP FALLS TO 2.2%, BIG DROP FROM 4Q’S 3.0%, ANALYSTS PREDICTED 2.6%

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment and restocked shelves at a moderate pace, but stronger demand for automobiles softened the blow.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate, theCommerce Department said on Friday in its advance estimate, moderating from the fourth quarter’s 3 percent rate.

While that was below economists’ expectations for a 2.5 percent pace, a surge in consumer spending took some of the [...]

Stockton’s Poor Mired In Violence After Police Cuts, Recession

STOCKTON, Calif. –- Last year, Pablo Cano put to rest 12 murder victims, the most he’s handled in four decades as an undertaker in this troubled city. Many of the dead were still in their teens.

No homicides have come his way so far this year, but in late February he buried a 16-year-old shot in the head, this time in an apparent accident. The job, he says, wears on him.

“I’m [...]

2011 likely worst year for house sales on record, dating back to 1963

AP Photo/John Raoux

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans bought slightly more new homes in November, but 2011 will likely end up as the worst year for sales in history.

The Commerce Department says new-home sales rose 1.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000. That’s less than half the 700,000 new homes that economists say should be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.

It’s also below the 323,000 homes [...]

US Housing Hangover Or 20-Year Japanese Nightmare

In its schizophrenic manner, the media across the country lamented the housing-starts numbers, which were ugly: 571,000 annualized in August, down 5% from July, down 5.8% from August 2010, and down 75% from its peak of 2.3 million in January 2006 (Census Bureau, PDF). But for the housing market to heal, that number should be near zero for years.

18 million vacant units, that’s the problem (Census Bureau, [...]

US new/used homes sales fall even further:

US new home sales fell for the second month a row in June, figures have shown, indicating continuing weakness in the housing market.

Sales fell 1% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 312,000, from a downwardly revised 315,000 in May, the Commerce Department said.

Separate surveys found US home prices rose slightly between April and May, while consumer confidence grew in July.

High unemployment and [...]

Hong Kong inflation continues rising; US existing home sales fall again; UK home mortgages subdued; Europe economy in crisis

Hong Kong inflation continues rising:

Inflation is hurting Hong Kong’s poor, such as Tam Kin Wai, who lives in a 40 sq foot cubicle.

Hong Kong’s inflation rate has risen to its highest level in almost three years, fuelled by soaring housing costs and food prices.

The city’s consumer price index rose 5.6% in June from a year ago, the highest rate since July 2008, and above 5.2% in May.

Hong [...]

FOOD PRICES JUMP MOST SINCE 1974

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years. Excluding those volatile categories, inflation was tame.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that the Producer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.6 percent in February — double the 0.8 percent rise in the previous month. Outside [...]

Inflation? What inflation?

by Jan Paul

quote
Industries Today’s Change 5 Day 1 Month 1 Year Market Cap
Footwear…………….+0.88% +0.32% +7.18% +41.77% 110.13bn
Brewers………………+0.76% -0.12% +0.39% +8.61% 424.90bn
Consumer Electronics+0.64% -2.25% +4.96% +8.45% 162.80bn
Home Construction..+0.59% +1.11% -1.86% +4.95% 74.14bn
Drble Household Products+0.53% +2.36% +4.05% +19.64% 153.56bn
Nondrable Househld Prcts+0.49% +1.19% -1.80% +2.35% 269.29bn
Recreational Products……+0.48% +3.91% +4.85% +40.03% 53.97bn
Clothing & Accessories….+0.46% +0.78% +7.78% +49.64% 472.08bn
Furnishings…………………..+0.44% +1.93% +8.53% +29.22% 41.28bn
Toys…………………………….+0.35% +0.08%.+4.22% +23.14% 112.29bn
Auto Parts…………………….+0.13% -0.09% +7.23% +55.61% 382.90bn

http://markets.ft.com/markets/sectorsAndIndustries/sectors.asp?s=600576&ss=WSODIssue&encodedName=Consumer-Goods

Brent Crude OilAs of Dec [...]

This will be much faster than many believe due to how fast they are going underwater.

In Pa, they will have to lay off 20,000 just because the Fed didn’t send the Medicaid payments they thought they would get. There isn’t a choice of gradual or not because it is all based on tax revenues which are still falling due to increased spending for those who lost their jobs and aren’t paying property taxes or not as much sales tax. They are losing huge fees for [...]

The beige books needs a closer reading:

“The beige book survey is a collection of anecdotes”

“Financial institutions generally reported steady to weaker loan demand, continued tight credit standards, and steady or deteriorating loan quality.”

“Home sales and construction activity improved across much of the nation, though prices were generally said to be flat or still declining somewhat. ”

“Despite the firming in sales, the level of new residential construction activity was generally characterized as weak…”

“Most Districts attributed stronger home [...]