This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES-U3) are trading higher by just 0.50 points to 1705.50 per contract. Most institutional traders and investors are eagerly awaiting the FOMC announcement. Later today, the Federal Reserve is expected to start tapering its QE-3 program. QE-3 is a program where the central bank buys $85 billion a month of U.S. treasuries and mortgage backed securities. How much money will the […]
Bank Of America: “We Hope None Of These Three Shocks Reaches A Crisis Level”
…Unfortunately, we seem to be entering another of those periods of elevated risk. Three concerns are emerging.
Interest rate shock: The Fed’s tapering talk has caused about a 100 bp rise in longer term interest rates. Clearly this puts economists on high alert for signs of weakness in interest-sensitive sectors such as autos, housing, and capital goods […]
Nearly half of modified mortgages are in default
Nearly half of the mortgages modified in 2009 under the Obama administration’s signature homeowner rescue effort are in default again, according to a report on Wednesday that raised concerns about the program’s effectiveness.
The report from the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP), the watchdog for the aid effort, said 46 percent of the struggling homeowners […]
The FHFA home price index climbed 0.7% month-over-month in May.
This was just shy of expectations for a 0.8% rise.
Meanwhile, April’s reading was revised down to show a 0.5% rise in the HPI, down from an initial estimate of 0.7%.
While homebuilder confidence has been coming in strong, we’ve had some disappointing housing data more recently.
Housing starts fell in June and the previous month’s numbers were revised down as well. Existing […]
May monthly data reported this past week included the Index of Leading Indicators, up 0.1 and showing no imminent recession, the Empire State and Philly manufacturing indexes, both of which improved, consumer prices up slightly, housing starts and existing home sales up, and permits down. The 6 month trend in housing is up, but at a more muted pace than over the previous year.
Prof. Geoffrey Moore identified 4 long […]
STOCKS FALL, OIL TANKS, GOLD GETS CRUSHED: Here’s What You Need To Know
Things got ugly.
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 13,927, -108.1 pts, -0.7 percent S&P 500: 1,511, -18.9 pts, -1.2 percent NASDAQ: 3,164. -49.1 pts, -1.5 percent
And now the top stories:
There was a hodge-podge of news today, and for the most part it was negative. Housing starts dropped 8.5 percent to 890k from last month’s reading of […]
We got another bout of strong data today.
Initial claims came in well below expectations.
And housing starts came in well above expectations. Housing is the primary bullish tailwind for the US economy, so this is particularly gratifying.
That being said, the economy is not growing blazing fast just yet.
In a note out this morning, Goldman’s Shuyan Wu presents a note titled A Roadmap For Slow Growth In Q1.
From housing starts to home prices, renowned economist Robert Shiller acknowledged “there are a lot of positive signs” for the U.S. housing market right now, but told CNBC Wednesday it’s still unclear if a recovery is actually in place.
After all, Shiller noted the housing futures market for single-family homes was only “mildly optimistic” before superstorm Sandy struck the U.S.’s East Coast with expectations for just 3 percent growth per year over the next […]
Before the nonsense gets too far out of hand, let’s review very briefly why natural disasters aren’t a net plus for an economy.
Don’t laugh. Every time some region of the world suffers the ravages of nature, economists pump out silly reports outlining the benefits.
They all read pretty much the same:
“While said hurricane/tornado/tsunami/flood affected millions of people, disrupted the normal flow of activity and caused tens […]
Groundbreaking on new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in July and gains from the prior month were revised lower, a reminder of the housing markets weakness despite some recent signs of recovery.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that housing starts dropped 1.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 746,000 units.
The reading, which is prone to significant revisions, was below the median forecast in a Reuters […]
Housing Starts MISS EXPECTATIONS, Fall To 708K (Exp. 722K)
Housing starts declined 4.8 percent to an annualized pace of 708,000, even as building permits sharply outpaced expectations, jumping to 780,000.
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Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-starts-2012-6#ixzz1yF3cYIMq