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We got another bout of strong data today. Initial claims came in well below expectations. And housing starts came in well above expectations. Housing is the primary bullish tailwind for the US economy, so this is particularly gratifying. That being said, the economy is not growing blazing fast just yet. In a note out this morning, Goldman’s Shuyan Wu presents a note titled A Roadmap For Slow Growth In Q1. Goldman expects growth of 1.5%, and [...] Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four years, while the U.S. trade deficit widened and import prices rose more than expected, according to economic numbers released Thursday. The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted to 339,000 last week, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up…. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146 This is just getting stupid. After expectations of [...] The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed a fall in mass layoffs in August. A mass layoff is when at least fifty initial claims for unemployment insurance originate from a single employer over a period of five consecutive weeks. The latest release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Mass Layoff Report indicated a decline in large-scale layoffs with 1267 mass layoff events for August resulting in 127,454 initial unemployment claimants on a seasonally adjusted basis. http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2012/0921/Mass-layoffs-decline-in-August
A [...] While hardly a factor in the Fed’s thinking which is due to present its announcement in 4 hours, today’s Initial claims report came at 382K, the biggest miss to expectations (370K) in 2 months, and up from last week’s naturally upward revised claims of 367K. The 15K jump is the biggest weekly spike in 2 months and 4th largest this year. Just as relevantly, as we warned months ago, those on extended [...] From New Deal Democrat’s summary: Weekly indicators were quite mixed. Initial claims, especially as measured over 4 weeks, are sending a good signal. Housing prices are firming. The long leading indicators of housing (especially refinancing), real money supply, and corporate bond yields also continue to be positive. Consumer sales were weakly positive. On the other hand, gasoline prices and sales are a negative. Railroad data was mixed, as were purchase mortgages, [...] After a wildly volatile week in the markets last week, which saw huge gains on Thursday and Friday, the coming week promises to be a massive one for the entire global economy.
That’s because there’s going to be tons of economic data, and potential action from the world’s most important central banks. Tomorrow, Monday, is actually pretty quiet, but starting Tuesday it will be non-stop action all the way through Friday. In the [...] The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rebounded last week, pushing them back to levels consistent with modest job growth after a seasonal quirk caused a sharp drop the prior period. Initial claims for state unemploymentbenefits increased 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 352,000 from the previously reported 350,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to [...] Prior to yesterday’s FOMC meeting, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius was one of the most confident that the Fed would do QE.
It didn’t. Now Hatzius doesn’t see any QE on the imminent horizon. This is what he said in a note this morning: …the hurdle for additional balance sheet action in the next few months appears to be quite high. The fact that the FOMC took a “substantive” easing step today probably makes another easing move [...] The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was little changed last week, according to government data on Thursday that suggested the labor market was struggling to regain momentum. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 387,000, the Labor Department said. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 389,000 from the previously reported 386,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 380,000 [...] WASHINGTON (AP) — More Americans sought unemployment aid last week, suggesting hiring remains sluggish. The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly unemployment benefit applications rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, an increase from an upwardly revised 380,000 the previous week. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the third straight week to 382,000. That’s the highest in six weeks. Weekly applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. When [...]
Just a quick heads up: The next four days are going to be huge.
First, the situation in Europe is as fluid as it has ever been, and for the rest of the week markets will be obsessed with Spanish banks and Greek polling. But beyond that, since it’s a shortened week, the economic data will come fast and heavy. We start off today with the latest Case-Shiller (housing) data. Then Thursday and Friday will be [...] by Tyler Durden
We have been pounding the table that 2012 will be a replica of 2011 since before January 1: after all the central planners’ script book has only so many pages. Sure enough, here is yet another indicator. Job gains remain anchored in the low cost labor sectors of the economy – retail, temporary, leisure, and hospitality – a pattern, as Bloomberg Brief points out, that has characterized growth during [...] From WSJ:
We got two more pieces of the jobs picture this morning. Let’s look at them: First, initial claims took a big dive last week, dropping 27,000 to 365,000. You can all breathe now. It’s not all sun and roses, of course. Last week’s initial claims were revised higher, as they are seemingly every week, to 392,000, a distressing number. The four-week average nudged up by 750 to 383,000, still too [...] Jobless claims rise, home sales come in strong and
First the scoreboard: Dow: 13,200.69, +110.38, +0.84% And now the top stories: Eurozone leaders denied reports that ECB officials are considering extending funding to boost illiquid banks through the European Stability Mechanism. European markets closed mixed. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the labor market is taking time to improve. Jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 388,000 in the week ended April 21 from a revised 389,000 the prior period that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today inWashington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 375,000. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-26/more-americans-than-projected-filed-jobless-claims-last-week.html
The reading was the latest [...] New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week, according to a government report on Thursday that could dampen hopes of a pick-up in job creation in April after March’s slowdown. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, the Labor Department said. But the prior week’s figure was revised up to 388,000 from the previously reported 380,000. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered [...] We’ve pointed out for a long time that initial claims is one of the best concurrent stock market indicators. The chart of the inverse of initial claims vs. the stock market is one of the most powerful pieces of evidence that the market’s movements have been fundamentals driven, rather than liquidity driven. Anyway, today initial jobless claims spiked to their worst level since January at 380,000. This is problematic for for the market, and it undercuts [...] New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to their highest level since January, a development that could raise fears the labor market recovery was stalling after job creation slowed in March. Elsewhere in the economy, producer prices were flat on the headline number but rose 0.3 percent excluding volatile food and energy, while the U.S. trade deficit fell unexpectedly. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the [...] by Joe Weisenthal
The above chart shows monthly non-farm payroll changes (in blue) vs. the 4-week moving average of initial claims inversed (in red). Dutch Book at Stone Street Advisors argues that this is a big deal for the next jobs report (which is a week from Friday): Over the past 35 years each time the 4 week moving average on initial claims broke under 375k then NFP trended above 250k. There are other things pointing [...] UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 01/07/2012 STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 State Change
State Supplied Comment WI -7,657
No comment. MI -5,208
No comment. IA -4,675
Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry. NJ -4,667
Fewer layoffs in the service, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries. KY -3,577
No comment. AR -1,563
No comment. STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 State Change
State Supplied Comment NY +29,389
Layoffs in the transportation, educational, and construction industries. CA +22,168
Layoffs in the service, agriculture, and fishing industries. TX +13,946
Layoffs in the manufacturing and service industries. NC +7,865
Layoff in the non classifiable establishments, textile, [...] by CNBC New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, but the underlying trend continued to point to improving labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000, the Labor Department said. The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 366,000 from the previously reported 364,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to [...] by ZH And so the year ends not with a bang but with an economic whimper, as the final Q3 GDP is revised lower from 2.0% to 1.8% on expectations of an unchanged print. The reason: Personal Consumption contributed only 1.24% instead of the 1.63% in the second revision and 1.72% in the advance forecast. No bias there at all. But sure enough, here comes the inventory kicker, which subtracted just 1.35% instead [...] December 21, 2011 WASHINGTON — As the fourth quarter draws to a close, a spate of unexpectedly good economic data suggests that it will have some of the fastest and strongest economic growth since the recovery started in 2009, causing a surge in the stock market and cheering economists, investors and policy makers. In recent weeks, a broad range of [...] From Bespoke Investment Group: This morning’s jobless claims report showed that initial claims dropped to 366K, which is the lowest weekly reading since May 2008. On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, jobless claims fell 96K to 433K from 529K. While that number is considerably higher than the seasonally adjusted number of 366K, it is important to view it in the context of the historical NSA numbers. The chart below shows… Read full article [...] Every week the US Department of Labor and Birth/Death Adjustments dutifully reports two sets of numbers on first time and continuing unemployment claims. One set is the actual number of people filing claims as tabulated by the 50 states. The other is a fictionalized number which purports to smooth out the seasonal variances so that the trend can be represented more clearly. One number is real. The other is fake, [...] Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April last week, while separate reports showed import prices dropping more than expected last month and the U.S. trade deficit shrinking to its narrowest level since December. New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits declined for the second straight week, to the lowest level since the first week of April, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 10,000 to [...] NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly six months, possibly signaling slight improvement in the job market. There were 391,000 initial unemployment claims filed in the week ended Sept. 24, the Labor Department said Thursday, down 37,000 from the prior week’s revised 428,000. The drop was much better than [...] By Jeffry Bartash WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – New applications for unemployment benefits sank by 37,000 last week to 391,000 to mark the lowest level since April, but a government official suggested the surprising drop may have stemmed from a variety of “technical” issues not captured by normal seasonal adjustments. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 428,000 from an original reading of 423,000, [...] |
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