David Rosenberg Presents 10 Things In The Economy That Are ‘Nearly-Certain’

Despite all the ambiguity, however, some things are almost certain. Here are ten-near certainties that Rosenberg says to invest around [presented verbatim]:

We remain in a classic post bubble ‘fat-tailed’ distribution curve, where the range of possible outcomes is much wider than in past recovery phases. This will remain the case in 2013, and until such time as all the major global debt imbalances have been fully resolved.
Near-6% U.S. output gap; [...]

History of Credit Derivatives

1975

-NYSE ended fixed commissions, leading to dropping commission rates and broker consolidation.
-Large number of boutique investment banks.
-Severe recession and oil price shock.
-Collapse of New York City real estate market.
-New York City defaults on its municipal bonds.
-Major banks hover on the edge of bankruptcy and crush of non-performing loans.

1978

-Glass Steagel Act passed.
-Mutual funds and money market funds start growing rapidly.
-U.S. dollar declines.

1979

-Oil price boom.
-Gold and precious metals prices on a huge [...]

Greater risks in the future

by ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-confirms-fed-has-rendered-fundamentals-valuations-and-almost-everything-else-

Jim Caron has some truly brilliant comments this morning which should be read by all who think they have any handle on the market: “The fixation on QE comes at a price. It is that interest rate volatility will rise due to the uncertainties surrounding QE. And since the performance of interest rates is closely tied to the performance of risky assets, including gold [...]