DeMark Sees S&P 500 Index Peaking Around 1,480 Before Tumble
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) will advance 5 percent to about 1,480 over the next two weeks before the rally ends and stocks fall, according to Tom DeMark, the creator of indicators to show turning points in securities.
The gain would push the benchmark index above the 2012 intraday high of 1,474.51 reached on Sept. 14 before buyers are exhausted, [...]
From Market Anthropology:
As expected, the Aussie (dollar) has retraced ~50% of the move from the Monday afternoon low to 102.78 (intraday) today.
Should the model continue to be prescient, it will once again roll over and take out the lows
from early September.
My suspicion is that the equity markets will begin to…
Read full article (with chart)…
U.S. 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483607 1.44 +0.01 +0.35%
German 10y /quotes/zigman/3483351 1.26 +0.08 +7.06%
Italy 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483462 6.41 +0.09 +1.37%
Spain 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483373 7.53 +0.09 +1.20%
U.K. 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483428 1.53 +0.05 +3.62%
Japan 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483476 0.75 +0.01 +1.46%
The Euro Area Downturn Is Getting Worse! The Flash Eurozone purchasing managers index fell to 46.4 in July, which represents the sixth straight month below 50. And a reading below 50 signals contraction.
Economists were looking for a reading of [...]
While Monti claims there is no need for an emergency summit and Spain and Italy ban short-sellers (but not long-sellers yet), Europe’s Dow-equivalent is down around 2.5%. Interestingly Italy and Spain ‘bounced’ off ugly lows intraday (which we are sure Monti/Rajoy are patting themselves on the back briefly) but France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX were sold hard – both down around 3% (as proxies as much as contagion-gatherers). More critically, equities [...]
At the G20 Cameron welcomes the Greeks as choosing a bailout, but warns they must impose austerity and that consequences of not doing will be very severe (12:13 BST)
Equities and broad risk-assets were generally in sync today until around 1430ET when between rumors of a Euro-wide deposit-guarantee ‘scheme’ – which we had already dismissed as impossible short-term, very unlikely medium-term, and not a long-term solution to redenomination/insolvency risk – and Kocherlakota’s hints as NEW QE if the fiscal cliff arrives – US equity markets took off (as did Gold). S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) pushed to more than 12pts [...]
After yesterday’s big 6%+ down day, Greek stocks are off another 2.5% today.
Greek banks are getting creamed worse.
Without too much exaggeration, we’d say that Greece is trading like it’s going to zero.
After the conservatives failed to form a government yesterday, it looks very much like there will be new elections in a few weeks, and it’s likely that the hand of the anti-austerity/anti-bailout faction will be strengthened even more.
Athens Stock [...]
From Gold Scents:
I doubt anyone was surprised by the reversal in the dollar index today.
It’s been made painfully clear that Bernanke is not going to tolerate a rising dollar, at least not for very long. Cycles are still working and still generating bounces out of daily cycle lows, but they are never allowed to get any traction before the next beat down starts.
I would say there’s a pretty good chance [...]
The stock market, in a week-long swoon, could be in for several more weeks of selling pressure before moving higher again, said Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief market technician.
Stocks broke out of their “euphoric fever” Monday, says Worth. The Standard & Poor’s 500, now down 3.7 percent from its April 2 intraday high, could be headed to the 1,340 level before it ends its decline, he said.
“We’re all wondering [...]
From Pragmatic Capitalism:
On February 29, 2012, gold futures prices had a big one-day selloff, dropping by more than $100 an oz at one point intraday. Normally, a big drop in gold prices will send gold ETF investors heading for the sidelines, but there was nary a reaction to that big drop.
In fact, total assets in GLD and IAU, the two biggest gold bullion ETFs, actually rose slightly that day, and [...]
Citigroup Predict Gold At $2,400/oz In 2012 And $3,400/oz “In Coming Years”
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,698.00, EUR 1,286.17, and GBP 1,073.60 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,714.50, EUR 1,292.99, and GBP 1,076.14 per ounce.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $3.10 in New York Friday and closed at $1,711.60/oz. Gold fell in Asia prior to modest price falls in Europe which has gold now trading at [...]
Themis Trading, a brokerage firm known for its anti-high frequency trading stance, believes two stocks may have experienced mini flash-crashes Thursday, the Wall Street Journal’s Steven Russolillo reports.
At 9:55 a.m. that day, shares of Thermo Fisher Scientific and Pall Corporation plummeted more than $1, only to regain most of that value in a matter of minutes.
Thermo and Pall both declined to comment on the situation, but Themis has posted an open letterto [...]
NYSE volume was the 3rd lowest of the year so far (while ES was just below average) as stocks leaked lower all day to small net losses by the close. Financials led the drop in stocks as they start to catch up the credit market weakness we have been pointing to for over a week but while HY (the high yield credit spread index) continues to underperform (and stocks following at a lower [...]
HMV shares almost trebled in value on Friday after the firm struck a deal with banks and suppliers aimed at halving its debts in the next few years.
The struggling music and film retailer said it was being given “significantly enhanced” headroom in which to recover.
The new deal with suppliers gives them 2.5% of the shares in HMV and should cut debt by 50% within three years.
Shares ended at 7.1p, a rise [...]
From High Chart Patterns:
Gold ($GLD), silver ($SLV), and our favorite junior miner ETF ($GDXJ) all are attempting to find footing (bouncing intraday before the market) today as they hit major levels of support.
If these levels crater, it would be a major blow for reversion-to-mean strategies that have worked well so far this year.
Major weekly level on GDXJ…
Read full article (with charts)…
With gold trading, at one point, down over $50 intraday, today KWN wanted to speak with the firm that is calling for $10,000 gold. Paul Brodsky, who co-founded QB Asset Management Company, had this to say about bearish predictions which anticipate a significant drop in the price of gold, “What we do specifically is take a strategic approach rather than a tactical approach. When we look at day to day [...]
From Gold Scents:
… The dollar is now at great risk of forming a left translated three-year cycle. A break below the October 27 intraday low would initiate a pattern of lower lows and lower highs of an intermediate degree.That is usually a sign that a major cycle has topped. If the dollar’s three-year cycle has topped after only five months, we will be at great risk of a severe currency [...]
So much for the half life of the latest European recovery rally. After the ECB is rumored to have bought €1.7 billion in Italian (70%), Spanish and Portuguese bonds this morning, spreads across the continent stabilized… however briefly. Since then, confirmed speculation of an Austrian downgrade and an unconfirmed rumor that Egan Jones and/or other rating agencies will put France on downgrade review has just sent the French(OAT)-Bund spread [...]
Silver did what was expected of it last week, by reacting back to support in the $33.50 area, although it very briefly touched $32 intraday on Tuesday, and then, also as expected it bounced back. On the 4-month chart the action last week looks like a normal reaction, that may be a bull Flag, within a young uptrend that was signalled by the clear break above important resistance in the [...]
UBS’ Stephane Deo has rapidly become of one of the most vocal, and luckily most erudite, critics of the veritable rumor-a-palooza that Europe has become: a continent that is now desperately throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes it will stick and generate another intraday EURUSD short covering squeeze to perpetuate the illusion that Europe is viable for at least one more [...]
Been cogitating, and am beginning to conclude that markets did –after an initial misapprehension — react properly to raising the debt ceiling and the Greek bailout. What do both events promise, nay, guarantee? Much more inflation. What will inflation do to stocks? Wreck them. What will inflation do to silver and gold? Drive them wild.
I reckon logic sometimes triumphs, even if it takes a few [...]
After writing an article about the Platinum-to-Gold ratio, I decided to do more with the excel sheet, like calculating correlations and plotting the price charts for example.
In this article, I will just focus on the Gold price.
Here we go, the Monthly average Gold Price since January 1968:
It looks a bit bubbly, right?
If you think this looks like a bubble, then please have a look at this Log-scaled chart, which looks far [...]
Below is a bit stale, but the manipulations are nonetheless pronounced.
Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO)
Up to now I have never been tracking the Permanent Open Market Operations (or â€œPOMOâ€) activity of the FED (it wasnâ€™t in my arsenal of seasonalities like the release dates of the Job Report and the Consumer Price Index, or the FED announcement sessions), but a recent comment to one of my [...]
Pound falls on UK budget deficit:
Euro and pound fall again:
20:34 GMT May 13th 2010
Romania today imposes austerity measures on their population, including cutting pensions, pensioners protest:
Romanian cuts spark backlash from the general public:
British first full coalition government since the 1930s stresses need for cuts:
Spain, strikes called over austerity measures imposed by their government yesterday:
Portugal announces more severe austerity measures today: