via Yahoo: “As previously mentioned, this spread has been inverted now for 120 straight trading days — its third longest streak since at least the early 1980’s. The table below lists these occurrences. The last time was in early 2007, …
The spread between the monetary policy-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield (US2Y) and the 10-year (US10Y) UST yield reached the deepest inversion since September 1981, as bond-market investors priced in higher-for-longer interest rates following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony …
by confoundedinterest17 Slippin’ into darkness! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, that is. At the same time that the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts to -108 basis points, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.11%. Now that The Federal Reserve is …
by confoundedinterest17 Ah, the start of a new week with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arguing (with a straight face) that there is no room in the Federal budget for cuts. Apparenly, Yellen never read any of the massive, pork-laden spending bills …
from Monetary-Metals The yield on the 10-year bond recently fell below the rate paid by the Fed on bank reserves. That is, a bank gets paid more to lend to the Fed for a day than to lend to the Treasury …
2) This alone is a pretty good leading indicator.https://t.co/vwQRm2ER3A — QF Research (@ResearchQf) November 18, 2022 Forbes: Yield Curve Inversion Steepens; now worse than it was for the Great Recession The yield curve is now deeply inverted. Three months …
by BoatSurfer600 The Big Short’s Michael Burry says “the Nasdaq is in a bull market because it is up 20% off its low? Who makes this stuff up? After 2000, the Nasdaq did that 7 times as it fell 78% …
by confoundedinterest17 Here is your weekend update on Treasury and Mortgage markets. The current US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve just slipped further into reversion at -40.299 basis points, screaming impending recession. Oddly, The Federal Reserve has been leaving its balance …
Danielle DiMartino Booth – Twitter, Released on 8/3/22 The yield curve votes “NO-CONFIDENCE” on the US economy… I’m sure it’s nothing. https://t.co/56CzUovZ4x — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) August 3, 2022
by confoundedinterest17 Its official! I submitted my resignation from George Mason University effective June 1, 2022. I will miss teaching the students, past and present. But back to the US Treasury yield curve. It remains in reversion (meaning shorter-term Treasuries …
Even if you deny the signal of a 2s30s inversion, can we all appreciate the speed of this move? pic.twitter.com/3DD1gDhAFr — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) April 1, 2022 Short sellers are increasing their bets on a stock market crash Will there …
by confoundedinterest17 We’ve got Trouble in Potomac City! The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve is going deeper into inversion. The short end of the Treasury curve is rising, as expected, but declining at the 5 year tenor and beyond. The aggregate Treasury …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve (aka, the belly of the Treasury beast) has inverted. It is more about the 10Y Treasury yield rising more slowly than the 5Y yield. Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage commitment rate rose to 4.42%. …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is rapidly approaching inversion at 20.5 bps (where the 10-year yield is lower than the 2-year yield). But the 10Y-3M curve is generally steepening at 173.33 bps. Of course, the driving force …
by confoundedinterest17 Today’s hawky-dove announcement by The Fed (raises rates by only 25 basis points, but hints that many rate hikes are around the corner. The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve has slumped to zero as inflation climbs and the number of rate hikes hits …
https://twitter.com/ZachMottl/status/1453841024757997574
By Robert Ross For about a week last month, the yield curve inverted for the first time since July 2006. Prior to that, this happened in July 2000 and April 1989. There’s a pattern here… each inversion hit about 18 …
via forbes: There’s a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve and how it’s an indicator of an impending recession. To better understand, let’s take a look at both the history, and the current situation. Remember that …
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: There are many people who are now saying we are headed into a recession. Your model shows we are coming to the end. Yet you have been the only analyst who has been correct. There are bankers …
Inversion not required this time. pic.twitter.com/Oho8QS0gqZ — Ag Coyote aka "Wile E" (@WileGenius) February 10, 2019 The Treasury yield curve has flattened significantly, and a meaningful and sustained yield curve inversion would send a bearish signal for the U.S. economy, …
by Doug Hornig, Contributor, GoldSilver GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney recently released a video dealing with inversion of the yield curve in the bond market. It’s an excellent introduction to a subject about which all investors should have a basic grasp. And it’s important …
by confoundedinterest The US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope just breached the 10 basis point barrier. And with that, gold is rising. Yes, we are on the inversion express. With gold as the protection. All aboard! Jerome Powell is engineer.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion Some analysts attributed the short-end underperformance to demand for riskier assets as global trade tensions eased following this weekend’s tariff truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Others pinned it to modestly higher expectations for Fed …
via confoundedinterest: It is difficult to predict how the trade scuffles between the US, China and Europe will play out. But what we do know is that the US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope continues flattening, now down to 26.4 basis points. Meanwhile, …
meanwhile 2s10s .266 2s10s swaps < 10bps 5s30s < 2bps 10s30s already inverted Global 10-Year Yields…
by Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, GoldSilver In case you’re unfamiliar with the 1966 movie The Russians Are Coming!, it’s a fun romp about a Russian submarine that accidentally runs aground off the New England coast during the Cold War …
via variantperception.com Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to …