Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) — Steve Forbes, chairman and chief executive officer of Forbes Inc., talks about fiscal negotiations in Washington and the outlook for Italy’s economy. Forbes speaks with Adam Johnson and Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Biderman’s Daily Edge – New Year could see immediate recession at worst, slower growth at best
Nov 23, 2012
In Greece, with the economy collapsing, the people attempt to push through barricades where their political leaders are meeting:
In the US, with the economy collapsing, the people attempt to push through barricades at Victoria’s Secret to buy panties:
In Spain, with the economy collapsing, the people take to the streets in desperation, where clashes with police break out over austerity cuts:
In the US, with the economy collapsing, the [...]
(Reuters) - Italy‘s economy will shrink about 2 percent in 2012 though signs of recovery could start to appear at the end of the year, Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco said in an interview.
Visco had previously expected a 1.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), against a government forecast of -1.2 percent and a 2.4 percent decline seen by employers’ lobby Confindustria.
Italy has been in recession since the middle [...]
Istat, the official Italian statistics body, said Italy’s manufacturing business confidence index fell to 86.2 from 89.1 in April, below a consensus forecast of 88.7.
Economists warned that conditions would only worsen, with some of the tax increases introduced by Mario Montin, the prime minister, due to kick in later this year. He has vowed to implement a €20bn (£16bn) austerity plan to eliminate the deficit in the next two years.
The ratings agencies are major forces for fiscal tightening, as governments desperately hope to maintain their investment grade ratings and so on.
But now look at this from Moody’s downgrade of Italian banks.
The #1 reason for the downgrade?
Increasingly adverse operating conditions, with Italy’s economy back in recession and government austerity reducing near-term economic demand.
So on the one hand, Moody’s pushes Italy to cut spending. And then on the other hand Moody’s punishes the banks for said spending cuts.
Today we learn that the obvious apparently continues, following a Reuters report that according to an Italian source, Q4 GDP declined more than the 0.2% drop in Q3, and that there was no improvement in Q1 of 2012. In other words, Italy’s economy is now contracting at an at least 0.3% annualized run rate. More as we get it, but it’s not like any details will make the news any less bulllish, [...]
THE SHOCK decision by Greece to hold a referendum over whether to accept the eurozone debt plan pushed Italian sovereign borrowing rates up sharply today.
While German 10-year bond yields fell below 2pc, Italy’s rates shot up to 6.3pc – above the 6pc level considered bailout mode.
The cost of Irish borrowing, although Ireland is currently out of the open markets surviving on the €85bn bailout fund, also rose to over 8.4pc.