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by Phoenix Capital Research Two big events have occurred/ are occurring.
Charles Evans who is one of the biggest pushers for QE, stated that the Fed has “the appropriate monetary policy in place” and that the economy is “improving quite a lot.”
Regarding #1, Evans has been one of the biggest pushers for more QE. Throughout 2011 and 2012, every time he appeared on [...] by Phoenix Capital Research
Japan has fueled much of this latest rally in stocks, driving the marketing first with promises of money printing by the Prime Minister in November 2012, and then a massive $1.2 trillion QE program announced by the Bank of Japan last month. The result of this has been a collapse in the Yen and a 70%+ rally in the Nikkei in the last six months. This has been the fundamental [...] Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. Between the collapse in JGB implied volatilities in recent days, today’s melt-down in JPY (+255 pips from pre-open US levels), the last few days melt-up in the Nikkei (+6.8% in 3 days), and now the quadrillion Yen Japanese government bond market is halted [...] Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fiscal and monetary stimulus measures may trigger a collapse of Japan’s economy as early as this year, according to Takeshi Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire investor George Soros. The yen has slumped 6 percent since elections last month returned power to the Liberal Democratic Party run by Abe, who’s demanded that the Bank of Japan (8301) undertake unlimited cash infusions to end deflation. The premier also unveiled 10.3 trillion yen ($116 [...]  Biderman’s Daily Edge – Japan Will Lead the Coming Government Bond Ponzi Scheme Collapse Public Debt – Japan is the Worst So many people only look at the US debt and yell and scream while jumping up and down in their yellow rain coats preaching the end is near. True, the US has the largest public debt, but it is far from the worst for it has the largest economy. That distinction [...] DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach told Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on “Market Makers” today that “investors should be holding cash” in this environment.
Gundlach said that risk assets have “diminishing returns” on each round of QE and “it’s almost like a half-life of a radioactive particle.” Investors shouldn’t turn to risky assets as a “Pavlovian response.” Gundlach also said that, “I don’t see a lot of value in [...] Every once in a while, China and Japan get into a loud political dispute over a couple of islands in which leads to boycotts of each other’s goods. “We think that the impact has been worse than previous disputes over the same islands,” writes SocGen’s Kiyoko Katahira in a new note. Earlier, Japan reported that its exports fell than 6.5 percent, which was worse than expected. This was largely due to the 12.3 percent [...] http://www.twitter.com/djfxtrader Japan bankrupted even more… Japanese Economy Contracts at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake Japanese Economy Contracts at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake Japan’s economy shrank last quarter as exports tumbled and consumer spendingslumped, putting pressure on the central bank to add stimulus and hurting Prime MinisterYoshihiko Noda’s record as he prepares for elections. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 3.5 percent, the most since the earthquake and tsunami in early 2011, Cabinet Office data showed today [...] By Michael Kitchen LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Japan’s real gross domestic product contracted 0.8% during the month of March, swinging from growth in February, according to research cited in a Nikkei business daily report Tuesday. The Japan Center for Economic Research, which tracks Japanese GDP on a monthly basis, said consumer spending fell for the first time in fourth months, falling 0.4%, while exports were flat. But the study said [...] GARY SHILLING: The Japan Train Wreck Is Accelerating For more than a decade, economists have been predicting a crisis in Japan, as the country finally collapses under the huge debt load it has accumulated over two decades of stagnation. As yet, however, these predictions have been wrong. Japan’s economy is still struggling, but the country’s interest rates remain near zero, and the government can borrow as much money as it wants. The [...] I was looking for figures on Japan’s budget for Fiscal Year 2012/2013, which starts April 1. I found the following: HIGHLIGHTS: Japan’s 2012/13 Budget Meets Targets With Sleight Of Hand (December 23, 2011) But we know the real budget deficit would include debt servicing. How much is that? Insight: Japan Slowly Wakes Up To Doomsday Debt [...] (Reuters) - Japan first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years calls into question how much longer the country can rely on exports to help finance a huge public debt without having to turn to fickle foreign investors. The aftermath of the March earthquake raised fuel import costs while slowing global growth and the yen’s strength hit exports, data released on Wednesday showed, swinging the 2011 trade balance into deficit. Few analysts expect [...] (Reuters) - Japan probably produced its first trade deficit last year in more than three decades as energy imports surged to cover for the loss of nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster, a major blow to an economy built on its exports prowess. For decades Japan used an exports-orientated economic policy to build up global brand names such as Toyota, Sony and Canon and a manufacturing might that was the envy of the [...] John Taylor, founder of currency hedge fund FX Concepts, spoke with Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning and said that the euro is in a “death struggle” as European policy makers seek to salvage the currency amid the region’s crisis. Taylor also said that the outlook for the euro surviving in its present form is “bleak.” BLOOMBERG TELEVISION Taylor on the outlook for the euro: “It is absolutely incredible. It’s a [...] 1) Italy sells bonds, yields jump to euro-era highs “Italy saw borrowing costs rise sharply as it sold a total of 7.5 billion euros ($10 billion) of a new three-year benchmark and other government bonds Tuesday. The Treasury sold 3.5 billion euros of three-year bonds, producing a euro-era record-high yield for a three-year of 7.89%, Reuters reported, up from 4.93% in a sale of three-year paper in October. A sale of September [...] by ZH Per the WSJ: “”We are now expecting production and GDP will decline in the first quarter and the second quarter,” Mr. Shirakawa said in an interview on Friday. It is rare for the central bank governor to make such forecasts and is the first time that Mr. Shirakawa officially admitted the likelihood that the economy may shrink in the first two quarters of the year, [...] (Reuters) – Japan’s economy is in a “severe condition” with no quick recovery in sight following a triple disaster triggered by the March 11 earthquake that has sent service-sector sentiment plummeting the most on record, the government said on Friday. With economists forecasting, in spite of china’s slowing policy to attempt to control soaring global inflation, particularly as US economy is also in serious difficulty, especially with so much debt, which is escalating and on an unprecedented scale, that it could overtake US in less than ten years, to become the world’s largest economy by GDP: Japan’s economy was worth $5.474 trillion (£3.414 trillion) at the [...] from CNBC: Like many members of Japan’s middle class, Masato Y. enjoyed a level of affluence two decades ago that was the envy of the world. Masato, a small-business owner, bought a $500,000 condominium, vacationed in Hawaii and drove a late-model Mercedes. But his living standards slowly crumbled along with Japan’s overall economy. First, he was forced to reduce trips abroad and then eliminate them. Then he [...] |
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