This economic funk won’t go away until the eurozone crisis is fixed

Please make me chaste, but not yet. This famous prayer by St Augustine has been the defining characteristic of the policy response in advanced countries to the economic crisis ever since it began nearly six years ago.

by Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph:

Throughout, policymakers have attempted to ease the pain of the adjustment by reinforcing many of the things that made the economy ill in the first place; pre-existing structural deficits have been [...]

Eurozone’s bully boys will come to regret penalising tiny Cyprus

Europe’s monetary union was meant to be about solidarity among the many and prosperity for all.

by Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph:

In practice, it’s turning out to be a doomsday machine for the fringe economies that once so enthusiastically lined up to join.

If even Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, is prepared to admit that Monday’s bail-out is a bitter pill for Cypriots to swallow, then it must indeed have been merciless. Nicholas [...]

The Euro Is Heading For A Permanent State Of Depression

A year ago, monetary union looked as if it was heading for certain death, with the European banking system in apparent meltdown and extreme divergence in monetary conditions across the single currency area. In all but name, monetary union had already ceased to exist.

Action by the ECB, first with the cash-for-debt Long Term Refinancing Operation and, more recently, the promise of unlimited bond purchases, has succeeded in stilling the waters, at least [...]

The Global Credit Crunch Is Just Getting Started

As everything connected to Europe seemed to fall apart even before US jobs numbers were announced, and we could say I told you so a thousand times when it comes to debt deflation and crunching credit and the rise of the US dollar, but won‘t, there’s a piece by Jeremy Warner at the Telegraph that I think I should mention.

First, though, I see that Nassim Taleb says he’d much rather [...]

Germany is going to have to go big or go home. Anything short of massive joint Ecb, Fed, BoJ, BoE, IMF intervention is going to seriously disappoint the markets.

How much longer will the ECB refuse to come to the rescue?
Do the single currency’s 17 members sincerely want to save the euro?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/9301204/How-much-longer-will-the-ECB-refuse-to-come-to-the-rescue.html

Anything like ltro is going to be a wash because banks are running short of collateral. Treaties will have to be renegotiated and that takes time. I dunno. I’m not seeing many other options other than a German capitulation on Eurobonds, which I don’t see Merkel getting through [...]

The euro crisis just got a whole lot worse: The latest eurozone data are truly shocking, much worse in its implications

By Jeremy Warner

 

With Europe plunging back into recession and unemployment soaring, Francois Hollande,
the French presidential candidate, is calling for growth objectives to be reprioritised over the chemotherapy of austerity.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has meanwhile continued to insist that on the contrary, Europe must persist with the hairshirt. What’s needed is political courage and creativity, not more billions thrown away in fiscal stimulus. Stick with the programme, she urges, as the [...]

110 bond holders left holding the bag on the Greek default sue Greece and banksters over bond swap (16:55 GMT):

Bondholders to sue Greece and banks over debt swap
• New Greek bonds highest-yielding debt in the eurozone
• Italy back in recession after Q4 GDP shrinks 0.7pc
• Eurozone finance ministers to vote on Greek bail-out
• Germany’s Schäeuble ‘won’t rule out’ another Greek rescue
• China has biggest trade deficit for 20 years

Latest

20.08 The Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner believes a lack of credit is not the reason for our economic predicament.

Scarce [...]

There’s A Whole Slew Of Ugly Headlines And Stories Out Of Greece Today, We’re Not Surprised The Market Is Down Over 0.5% Today

by Joe Weisenthal

Markets continue to move lower, and part of that may be the deepening realization that in less than 24 hours, the mood in Greece has gone from “relief, we have a deal” to “Nobody trusts each other, and the deal is a lie.”

The word last night was that European finance minister basically called the Greek deal a con.

Then there’s this emotional statement from Greek FinMin Venizelos, translated by FT Alphaville, [...]