From John Hussman’s Weekly Market Commentary:
“Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.” – Benjamin Graham
“Human beings desperately want to belong, but, they also desperately want to understand the environment around them. Often, the desire to belong and the desire to know the truth conflict. The idea of the majority view or the ‘mainstream,’ gives people the sense that they are a [...]
The title of fund manager and noted bear John Hussman’s weekly note: “Capitulation Everywhere.”
After a steady grind higher in stock markets to start 2013, Hussman is feeling pretty lonely in the bearish camp.
He writes, “The bears are gone, extinct, vanished. Among the ones remaining, many are people whom even I would consider to be either permabears or nut-cases. And yet, the historical evidence for major defensiveness has rarely been stronger.”
Hussman also [...]
From The Big Picture:
Whenever we are near fully invested, we begin to look for the drivers that have the potential to derail the current portfolio posture.
Earnings were the prime worry last month. Now, the concern is an eventual recession coming sooner rather than later.
Towards that concern, Albert Edwards of Soc Gen points us to John Hussman who points us to Lance Roberts, who is looking at the Coincident to Lagging [...]
John Hussman’s much more bearish than I am at this juncture and I think he’s been excessively bearish for a while now, but that doesn’t mean he will necessarily continue to be wrong. In today’s note, he highlighted six indicators that are consistent with a risk-off environment:
“Put simply, my view is that the present is a terrible time to accept a significant amount of market risk. I certainly can’t [...]
Every Investor And CEO Needs To See This Chart Before The Fiscal Cliff Is Hit
Drawing on a similar idea, back in April, John Hussman posted this chart, which compares corporate profitability to the inverse of government and household savings (with a lag). In other words, when government and household savings decline, the red line goes up. A few months later, the blue line (corporate profits) follow nicely.
Bottom line: The deficit is a major [...]
Hussman: US Likely Entered into a Recession in Mid-2012
The U.S. economy likely slid into a recession during the middle of 2012, said economist and fund manager John Hussman.The U.S. economy officially grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter and 2 percent in the first quarter, but such assumptions are made with backward-looking indicators, or those that capture events that have already happened.
Leading indicators, which point to where the economy is [...]
Top Economist Hussman: US Likely Entered into a Recession in Mid-2012
The U.S. economy likely slid into a recession during the middle of 2012, said economist and fund manager John Hussman.
The U.S. economy officially grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter and 2 percent in the first quarter, but such assumptions are made with backward-looking indicators, or those that capture events that have already happened.
Leading indicators, which point to where the economy [...]
The return/risk profile of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has dropped to its lowest point of the last 100 years, according to mutual fund manager John Hussman.
That certainly points to an overvalued, overbullish market, he writes in his weekly commentary.
“All of this should make bells go off for anyone familiar with market history. Of all the investment adages that are being embraced as reasons to accept market risk, [...]
In his latest fund letter, John Hussman argues that investors are wildly complacent, and missing out on the big negative downward trend in the global economy.
Investors remain so addicted to the temporary high of monetary intervention that they continue to ignore very real downturn in global economic indicators, to an extent that we have not seen since the 2007-2009 recession. This is particularly evident in the deterioration of new orders and order [...]
If you read Business Insider you know we love charts. Pretty much all of them. Throw it in Excel, show us something interesting, something we hopefully haven’t seen before, and you’ve gotten our attention.
So we reached out to some of the world’s most influential analysts, economists, hedge-funders and traders and asked them a simple question: what charts are you always keeping your eye on?
Their responses were surprisingly varied, from slides that delved into S&P [...]
Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
John Hussman has long been on the recession bandwagon and he says his call is finally coming to fruition. In his latest note he highlights the evidence showing that we have reached the point that clearly delineates expansion from new recession (via Hussman Funds):
With regard to the economy, I noted two weeks ago that the leading evidence pointed to a further weakening in employment, with an abrupt dropoff in industrial [...]
From The Reformed Broker:
John Hussman’s outlook has been bearish for a while and he tends to skew a bit non-constructive over long periods of time, anyway. Hussman is on my must-read list and has been forever. Timing is harder than anything in making economic forecasts and he is very honest about this.
That said, in his commentary yesterday he put up an interesting and urgent chart for those banking on the [...]
In his latest note, John Hussman is bearish, and says the recession here.
By our analysis, the U.S. economy is presently entering a recession. Not next year; not later this year; but now. We expect this to become increasingly evident in the coming months, but through a constant process of denial in which every deterioration is dismissed as transitory, and every positive outlier is celebrated as a resumption of growth. To a [...]
From The Stock Sage:
Even pessimistic value oriented guys have hit the sell button on Treasurys during the last few days – here are John Hussman’s comments on bonds from his most recent missive:
“In Strategic Total Return, we took profits on long-held bond positions last week, cutting the Fund’s duration to less than one year. Last week’s plunge in rates took the 10-year Treasury yield to a point where capital losses, [...]
Bearish fund manager John Hussman says the latest selling is the classic version of how overvalued markets come to their end…
Since late-February, our estimates of the market’s prospective return/risk tradeoff (over a set of horizons from 2 weeks to 18 months) have persistently held in the worst 0.5% of all historical observations. It’s always important to emphasize that we try to align ourselves with the average return/risk profile that has historically accompanied the particular set of investment conditions [...]
John Hussman’s latest weekly note out is out, and though he’s still bearish, the tone is a little bit different, as he reflects on the significance of the recent market decline.
He does note that base don his models, the market is in a better position today than it was a few weeks ago, with the 10-year prospective return having improved.
But the short and medium-term outlooks is still fairly negative.
He does produce [...]
From The Burning Platform:
You’ve been warned. This is a must-read piece by John Hussman. Here are the best snippets:
ON THE MARKET
“Valuations have never been as extended as they are today – on the basis of normalized earnings – except in the quarters leading up to the 1929 crash. Exhaustion syndromes prior to 1987, while still very hostile to stocks, didn’t occur in valuation conditions as rich as we have today.
The very erudite Dr. John Hussman is as good as a market researcher as there is, and he defines a set of market conditions that when they come together generally leads to poor equity performance. One of Hussman’s syndromes is the “overbought, over-bullish, overvalued, and rising yields syndrome.”
My own research would agree this assessment. The markets tend not to do well when yields are rising and when investor sentiment is overly bullish. [...]
Fund manager John Hussman is as bearish as ever.
Although he admits that timing the market is difficult, he suggests, strongly, that now is one of the worst times in history to buy stocks:
We presently identify market conditions as being in the most negative 1% of historical data based on the average expected return/risk characteristics associated with similar conditions, on a wide range of horizons ranging from 2 weeks to 18 months.
One of [...]
We have discussed the money-on-the-sidelines fallacy a few times recently in the context of the circular money-flows (clear misunderstanding of the idea of a buyer and a seller) as well as mutual fund cash levels, retail sentiment, demographic shifts, and insider transactions. There is mounting evidence, as Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson notes, that ‘make no mistake…institutional investors are all-in‘ as the rolling beta of mutual funds relative to the [...]
In his latest weekly note, fund manager John Hussman is… bearish on the market.
This has been his stance for a couple years now, and this week he looks at a technical indicator showing signs of excessive optimism:
As of Friday, the S&P 500 was within 1% of its upper Bollinger band at virtually every horizon, including daily, weekly and monthly bands. The last time the S&P 500 reached a similar extreme was Friday April [...]
There’s a big story in Barron’s this weekend titled “The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks?,” which highlights the gloomy warnings of well-known investor John Hussman and technical guy Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.
Hussman’s bearishness is well known, but the article by Randall W. Forsyth boils down Hussman’s bearishness to five criteria:
• the Standard & Poor’s 500 trading at more than 8% above its 52-week exponential moving average
• the S&P 500 up more [...]
The blistering asset rally of 2012 has run ahead of economic realities in Europe, America and China. It is exhibiting symptoms of a schizophrenic market, with technical indicators flashing signs of exhaustion.
Europe, China and the US are all facing significant troubles in 2012 Photo: AFP/EPA/Reuters
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Graham Secker from Morgan Stanley said it is rare for global stocks, oil prices and government bonds to rise in lockstep, and such exuberance becomes a [...]
From Pragmatic Capitalism:
John Hussman is describing the current market environment as being comparable to past historical occurrences when it was an “awful time to invest.” In his latest market commentary, he writes:
Importantly, the market is again characterized by an extreme set of conditions that we’ve previously associated with a “Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest.” The rare instances we’ve seen this syndrome historically are reviewed in that previous weekly [...]
by Cullen Roche
It’s not unusual to see the 1987 market crash bandied about supporting extreme claims. This outlier event is often misrepresented by bears who are trying to prove why a certain market environment is at risk of a crash or a serious market decline. In this morning’s Hussman letter, John Hussman mentions the 87 crash in response to the thinking that falling jobless claims are at odds with the potential of [...]
The Burning Platform
February 6, 2012
The last week has offered an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts like Zero Hedge, Mike Shedlock, Jesse, and John Hussman. What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? [...]