This is going to be huge!!!
Japan Bond Yields Spike – 10-Year Now at 1%
Japanese government bond (JGB) yields soared to 1 percent on Thursday, their highest level in a year, prompting the Bank of Japan to hold true to its promise of taking action to stabilize an incredibly volatile bond market.
Analysts expected the market volatility to last for a while, but added that buying by domestic pension funds and the [...]
Rasmussen: 62% of Consumers See US in Recession
More and more Americans feel the U.S. economy is mired in a recession, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds.
The poll found that 62 percent of consumers believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, while 22 percent disagree.
Among investors, 61 percent say the economy is in a recession, while 24 percent say it’s not.
The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on [...]
Iran Gold Imports From Turkey Surge To $8 Billion YTD – $3.2 Billion Worth Of Bullion In Q2 2012
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,731.00, EUR 1,352.77 and GBP 1,081.33 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,732.75, EUR 1,355.09 and GBP 1,082.63 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $33.57/oz, €26.36/oz and £21.02/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,602.75/oz, palladium at $668.20/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz.
Gold fell $8.80 or 0.506% in New York [...]
Federal Reserve To Crash Markets Before Launching QE3?
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Desperate to print Wiemar-style to fight off the most viscous Kondratiev Winter on record, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may not satisfy ‘inflation trade’ onlookers at the close of his Jackson Hole speech scheduled Friday. He may, instead, merely allow months of anticipatory front-running of stocks do the work of propping up asset prices for him. Get my next ALERT 100% FREE
And if [...]
August 29, 2012
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Desperate to print Wiemar-style to fight off the most viscous Kondratiev Winter on record, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may not satisfy ‘inflation trade’ onlookers at the close of his Jackson Hole speech scheduled Friday. He may, instead, merely allow months of anticipatory front-running of stocks do the work of propping up asset prices for him.
And if investors don’t get the ‘all-systems go’ at Jackson Hole, [...]
Optimism has seized stock markets in the past month on the back of better economic data in the United States and a late-summer lull in the euro crisis. Market volatility is at its lowest level in years.
BofA’s top economist Ethan Harris says investors shouldn’t be fooled in a pretty downbeat note to clients – he thinks the U.S. economy is “in the eye of the storm” right now.
Here is what Harris sees on [...]
The kneejerk short covering reaction to Draghi’s remark that he will do “anything to preserve the euro” (this must be news because yesterday the ECB would not do anything to preserve the euro supposedly) is over. Now the analysis begins of what was actually said. The realization is… nothing. From Bloomberg:
‘Nothing Structural’ in Post-Draghi Bond Spread Moves: Credit Agricole
While selloff in bunds may extend further, it appears to be just “correction” of what is risk- [...]
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,567.75, EUR 1,261.47, and GBP 1,008.98 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,567.50, EUR 1,255.31, and GBP 1,003.39 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $26.93/oz, €21.77/oz and £17.39/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,406.50/oz, palladium at $575.20/oz and rhodium at $1,190/oz.
Volatile trade yesterday saw gold surge nearly $20 after news that the ECB was considering entering the monetary twilight zone of NIRP or negative interest rate [...]
Back in October 19, 1988, in response to Black Monday from a year earlier (the SEC is not known for fast turnaround times) a little known SEC rule came into effect, known as Rule 80B, and somewhat better known as “Trading Halts Due to Extraordinary Market Volatility” which set trigger thresholds for market wide circuit breakers – think a wholesale temporary market shutdown. According to Rule 80B (as revised in 1998), the [...]
Friday, June 1, 2012
Breaking: NYSE Invokes Rule 48
With indications that the Dow will open more than 170 points lower, the NYSE has invoked Rule 48.
Specifically, the NYSE and NYSE MKT cash equities exchanges will invoke Rule 48 for this morning’s opening. Mandatory opening indications are therefore not required. Overview of Rule 48:.
Rule 48 provides the Exchange with the ability to suspend the requirement to disseminate price indications and obtain Floor [...]
European pension funds plan to withdraw more money from stock markets to avoid rising volatility and almost 70 percent of firms with exposure to peripheral euro sovereign bonds plan even more reductions, a poll by consultant Mercer showed on Monday.
The annual survey of more than 1,200 defined-benefit pension funds across continental Europe, Britain and Ireland showed a growing diversification away from equity into a more varied mix of alternative assets, including hedge [...]
By Michael A. Gayed
“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” — Arthur Schopenhauer
I’ve been seeing more and more chatter about a 1987-style stock market crash ever since Marc Faber of “the Gloom Boom and Doom Report” brought up the idea on Bloomberg last week.
The main argument is that without [...]
JPMorgan announced Thursday that its chief investment office had unexpected trading losses that could reach at least $800 million in the second quarter.
The bank’s [JPM 40.74 0.10 (+0.25%) ]announcement, which came after the close of trading, sent its shares down sharply in after-hours trading. Click here to see the latest quote.
Since the end of March, the company’s chief investment office “has had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio,” the company said in a filing.
From Pragmatic Capitalism:
The Citigroup economic surprise index is now clearly in the negative territory in a trend reminiscent of last year’s decline.
BW/Bloomberg: – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., a gauge of how much reports differ from economists’ estimates in Bloomberg surveys, turned negative on April 25 and fell May 3 to the lowest level since September. Last year, the gauge sank below zero for the first time [...]
Ridiculous as our market volatility might seem to an intelligent Martian, it is our reality and everyone loves to trot out the “quote” attributed to Keynes (but never documented): “The market can stay irrational longer than the investor can stay solvent.” For us agents, he might better have said “The market can stay irrational longer than the client can stay patient.”
As one may have guessed by now, the topic [...]
From Market Anthropology:
One of the greatest challenges in reading a market cycle or comparative trading environment is estimating timeframes of a pivot. And although many traders will discount an analog’s utility on that challenge alone, I continue to find merit in having a kinetic blueprint of how a comparative market reacted during like conditions.
… [C]onsidering the approaching and increasingly ambiguous implications of a Greek default and the market’s unbridled appetite [...]
Never gamble unless you can afford to lose.
That is essentially the message of a small but growing chorus of academics and financial advisers, who are calling for a new approach to managing investment risk in the wake of the two bear markets and unprecedented market volatility of recent years.
The current rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average notwithstanding, they believe individual investors should shift their focus from how much money [...]
Nearly buried in the snooze-fest of Friday’s stock action was a swift retreat in small caps, most notably the Russell 2000 RUT -1.57% .
The index sank 1.6% on Friday to 802.42, the largest percentage decline this year and its lowest closing value in a month.
For the week, it lost 3%, skidding past the large-cap benchmarks. The S&P 500 SPX -0.33% ended up 0.3% for the week. [...]
ALBANY — When New York State officials agreed to allow local governments to use an unusual borrowing plan to put off a portion of their pension obligations, fiscal watchdogs scoffed at the arrangement, calling it irresponsible and unwise.
And now, their fears are being realized: cities throughout the state, wealthy towns such as Southampton and East Hampton, counties like Nassau and Suffolk, and other public employers like the Westchester Medical Center [...]
Wealthy investors plan to increase their allocations to commodities and private companies while decreasing their cash holdings this year, according to a survey released today.
About 48 percent of respondents said they plan to add to commodities investments during 2012 and 55 percent said they intend to make more direct investments in private companies, according to a survey by the Institute for Private Investors. About 45 percent plan to increase [...]
UBS has the following words to describe: “Given the contraction in the investor base for most Eurozone sovereigns on the back of the increased market volatility and spread widening experienced by most issuers, we expect funding conditions to be quite challenging next year. We expect the majority of the issuers to front-load supply in the first three months of the year and to bring to the market a number [...]
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James J Puplava CFP with Marc Faber PhD
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Marc Faber for a wide-ranging discussion. Dr. Faber covers inflation, China, gold, war and resource scarcity, democracy and education, market volatility and the importance of diversification.
Faber was born in Zurich and schooled in Geneva, Switzerland. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and obtained a Ph.D. in Economics magna cum laude. Faber resides in Thailand and is best known [...]
UK steel production at one of the largest remaining plants to be mothballed, with redundancies, as demand collapses:
The hot strip mill at Llanwern steelworks in south Wales is be temporarily mothballed, with the loss of 115 jobs.
Tata Steel blamed the move on “continuing poor UK steel demand”.
The GMB union described the decision as “a devastating blow for the UK steel industry”.
Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan said it was important that [...]
Risk correlations will likely remain high, at similar levels to what we have seen since 2007/2008. Broader macro shocks continue to dominate country-specific factors and most FX cross rates.
Broad USD weakness to persist in the background, with the trade deficit averaging around US$45bn per month, private capital flows into the US (excluding foreign flows into treasuries and official flows into agencies, corporate bonds and equities) have averaged zero in recent [...]
By NIELS JENSEN
The Absolute Return Letter, November 2011
“A country is bust when the markets decide.”
Albert Edwards, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
The ink on the Greek rescue agreement had barely dried before a triumphant, nappy-changing French President with an ego to match the heels of his shoes went on French television to portray himself as the saviour of Europe. “We find ourselves at the start of a new world”, he jubilantly proclaimed.
The reason why the EURUSD took a big step lower in the past minutes is because Fitch has come out with a note in which it has assigned an AAA rating to the amended EFSF program. That in itself is not an issue, what is however, to the market is the announcement that a 50% Greek haircut would be an event of default. That said this is not to [...]
BRUSSELS (AP) — They were so close at one point that people started calling them “Merkozy” – but you can always count on money to break up a beautiful relationship.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy still talk on the phone every day and meet plenty for dinner. But nowadays, as yet another summit of European leaders approaches Wednesday, they mostly just discuss the finances that divide them [...]
By Catherine Bremer and Daniel Flynn
PARIS | Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:44am EDT
(Reuters) – G20 finance chiefs and central bank heads from the world’s biggest economies meet in Paris on Friday needing to find a solution to a deepening euro zone debt crisis that has fanned fears of a global recession.
Underlining the challenge for European policymakers, Standard and Poor’s cut Spain’s long-term credit rating, citing the country’s high unemployment, tightening [...]
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. will give investors an early glimpse of how market volatility and stifled trading this summer shaped the bottom line of U.S. banks.
J.P. Morgan JPM [...]
Credit strongly underperformed equities over the past week, as the market struggled to follow the equity rally sparked by weekend rumors about potential new sweeping initiatives to contain the sovereign crisis in Europe. While the Eurostoxx 50 has gained almost 9% since last Friday’s close, iTraxx Main is only 4bp tighter – well below the tightening expected given the recent relationship between the two [...]
Apocalypse Trades: Neither Things Nor Bureaucracy
Given the utter implosion of the American consumer and Hurricane Irene, it is fashionable to be apocalyptic these days. One should be disinclined to acquiesce to such visions.
One should not be blamed for being seduced: a Federal Reserve apparatchik dictates the path of every asset class by his whim. Regrettably, there is no reliability in predicting such whims of fate. [...]
FLORENCE, Alabama | FLORENCE, Alabama (Reuters) – The risk of a new U.S. recession has risen over the last couple of months, but an outright contraction will most likely be avoided, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday.
Lockhart said there is plenty the central bank could do if the economy does deteriorate further, including ramping up asset purchases or shifting their [...]