|
|||||
|
from Zero Hedge: One look at Americans’ driving habits represented by total vehicle miles travelled through the start of the Second Great Depression shows a simple chart: an uninterrupted diagonal line from the lower left to the upper right, which makes sense – a growing economy means more commuting, means more driving, means more demand to get from point A to point B, means more miles driven, and so on. Then something happened. As [...] From Carpe Diem: The chart above shows University of Oregon economics professor Jeremy Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” from January 1990 to November 2012, based on the 4 monthly variables used by the NBER to determine U.S. recessions: 1) non-farm payroll employment, 2) the index of industrial production, 3) real personal income excluding transfer payments, and 4) real manufacturing and trade sales. According to Professor Piger, “Historically, three consecutive months of recession probabilities [...] from Zerohedge: Just under two months ago we noted, somewhat comedically, that the Fed’s researchers were ‘confused’ that its models (the wonderful DSGE) pointed to ‘explosive inflation’ given its current ZIRP regime. Perhaps those same PhDs will also be surprised to note that, based on the 44 month average length ‘out of recession’, that the next recession (as proffered by the NBER) is due to begin March 2013 (though of course, the resolution of [...] by Phoenix Capital Research
The US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%.
There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items:
Everything that was a problem in the run up to the US election is still a problem (in fact many issues are now worse than they were a few months ago). by Phoenix Capital Research The US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items: 1) Everything that was a problem in the run up to the US election is still a problem (in fact many issues are now worse than they were [...] From The Reformed Broker: What could go wrong? The Fed is DJing the hottest dance party ever, and everyone is getting down. Well, not everyone, but you get the idea. Anyway, if there’s anything that could derail us, it’s an ordinary, cyclical recession. The kind we used to have before Greenspan decided they were no longer necessary. Today, I’d like to talk about the relationship between earnings recessions and economic recessions. Because we’re [...] Five Years Of Jobs Versus Entitlements by ZH The Second Great Depression officially started in December 2007. The NBER tells us that the recession that started at the same time ended some time in the summer of 2009. The Second Great Depression continues. The chart below shows the cumulative increase in Americans receiving foodstamps and disability benefits since December 2007 on the positive Y-Axis, and the jobs lost on the negative [...]  Death of ‘Growth Economics’ spells danger By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch “Is the U.S. Condemned by History to Slow Growth?” asks Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Yes. But for traders and investors, it’s far worse than just bearish slow growth. Plan for no growth or zero growth. Why? Wall Street, America and the world economy are in the early stages of a long era of “de-growth,” a reversal of economic growth and reduction in [...] Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis There is a big difference between making a claim the economy is in recession from a claim the economy is headed for one. Case for a Global Recession I think the entire global economy is in recession and said so on July 6, 2012 in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived However, we need to define the term “recession” Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two [...] Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism John Hussman has long been on the recession bandwagon and he says his call is finally coming to fruition. In his latest note he highlights the evidence showing that we have reached the point that clearly delineates expansion from new recession (via Hussman Funds): With regard to the economy, I noted two weeks ago that the leading evidence pointed to a further weakening in employment, with an abrupt dropoff in industrial [...] That the market is merely yet another transitory sugar high bubble creation of the Chairsatan and his central planning colleagues in various marble buildings around the world is no surprising to anyone, at least not anyone who maintains a pretense of objectivity, is not desperate to sell a weekly newsletter, and has a frontal lobe. What however is not only surprising, but outright shocking, is that such embedded members of [...] While February’s unemployment data had both the markets and market pundits singing the economic recovery song, other employment statistics show that joblessness in America is not a thing of the past, in fact, these statistics show that long-term joblessness has reached levels not seen either during a recession or during the post-recession recovery since the 1940s. Here is a six-decade long graph from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED) showing where the problem lies: Here is [...] How does the current recovery compare to those of the past? The following charts from the Council on Foreign Relations puts the current (un)recovery in context and despite some apparently bright news recently, the pictures underline the economy’s weakness since the NBER’s recovery began in June 2009.
The x-axis shows the number of months since the end of the recession. The dotted lines are composites of prior recoveries representing the weakest and strongest experiences [...] The history of America’s recessions is provided at the website of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession, since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of 10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are 47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real recovery. Instead, unemployment has been stuck at 9% or above for [...] by thetechnicaltake The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of economic expansions and contractions. Their official recession calls tend to be after the fact, and usually after much pain has been suffered by investors in the stock market. Even now, there is a great debate amongst economists. Is the US economy in a recession? Is it a soft patch? Are we headed for [...] There are many reasons behind the doubling of America’s obesity rate over the past 25 years. Foodstamp use is higher, jobs have become more sedentary, populations are more sprawled, etc.But the biggest factor is the decline in smoking, according to a controversial new paper from NBER. Professors Charles Baum and Shin-Yi Chou found that smokers were 0.078% less likely to be obese. The declining use of cigarettes explains [...] Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives James Ross, the University Architect at UNC Wilmington and an avid student of the economy, called my attention to Martin Wolfe’s recent essay at the Financial Times explaining that we’re not at risk of a double-dip recession because the one that began in late 2007 hasn’t ended. Of course, the National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) declared June 2009 as the end date for the [...] by ZH Forgive us while we take another quick and gratuitous look at today’s disastrous Empire Index, but we wanted to bring a very important point highlighted by Stone McCarthy: “You usually don’t get three straight months of negative results unless you are in a recession (Note: NY Fed historical data only started in July 2001).” SMRA continues: “If that’s not bad enough for you, the forward-looking [...] by CalculatedRisk By request, here are four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments. Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator [...] My basic point is that immigration problems ARE CAUSED BY BUSINESSES, not immigrants. Here are the points: 1. NAFTA, a program that primarily benefits big business is a major cause of illegal immigration. NAFTA allows big agri-business to sell cheap, government subsidized corn, produced by mechanized farming to Mexico. Mexican farmers cannot compete, because they use manual labor. NAFTA has caused the loss of 2-million jobs in rural Mexico. (By the [...] by ZH There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest [...] by Tony Pallotta of Macro Story Where Is The Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It “The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision.” Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and [...] by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Advisors Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recession There has been a LOT of talk recently on the rising price of gasoline at the pump, so much so, that Obama has now jumped in with both feet admonishing the “evil speculators” for causing such a burden upon the American public. Well, that and to promote a clean energy policy that is ill [...] by Zh REHN SAYS A DEBT RESTRUCTURING COULD CAUSE A ‘CHAIN REACTION’ This is better known as “MAD – Fission” Fusion And some other exercises in MADdening: STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS GREEK GOVERNMENT `HAS BEEN VERY BOLD’ But, but, the recession ended 9 months ago? Unless of course those wily NBER “economists” were only [...] by MoneyMcbags The Fed’s monthly statement on the economy was out today and it was more redundant than a repetitive semantic pleonasm and less telling than a gay soldier (though it’s not clear that anyone asked). The FOMC statement was little changed from last month with the headline being that the economic recovery is still eating a fat dick (and not any fat dick, but an AIDS [...] by downrodeo I cringed when he touted the NBER’s statistic that the recession ended in 2009. I really want to see the look on the face of this man when shtf. I always wonder, do they really believe the words that come out of their own mouths? The Daily Show With Jon Stewart by Norsky If your waiting for an official announcement from the Banksters, it’s not likely soon since they like to do things in secret. From 10 days ago: “Fed Injects Record $5 Billion Into Stock Market With Today’s POMO” http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-injects-record-5-billion-stock-market-todays-pomo “Today’s POMO is over, and the result is a whopper: Brian Sack has just injected a record for QE Lite $5.2 billion in stock, in order to complete all the elements of today’s orchestrated Obama [...] http://www.shadowstats.com/ “What’s in a Name? NBER Declares Recession Ended in June 2009. Speaking to her beloved Romeo, Juliet declares, “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet.” There is a corollary here involving economic contractions, recessions, double-dips and recoveries, but the final descriptive would involve something other than a sweet fragrance. “ – John Williams September 26, [...] quote Remember we defaulted on the dollar and had to leave the Bretton Woods policy in 1971. We had 40 years of democratic control of the House where the legislation (along with the Senate, also controlled by the democrats for all but six of those 40 years) that caused the problems we have today was passed and signed by Presidents of both parties. By the 1994 “revolution” we were already past [...] As the 1993 tax increase took effect, every sector of durable and non-durable mfg. job growth peaked from 1994 on and were in free fall by 2000 the election year. The NBER saw the recession beginning to take shape in Clinton’s last year and it became a campaign issue for the 2000 election. Another sign was how unemployment insurance tax receipts were falling until the absolute peak of the unsustainable tech [...] |
Custom Search
    |
||||
|
Copyright © 2013 InvestmentWatch - All Rights Reserved |
|||||
