Carlin: Wall Street Owns Washington

Why Are Americans Driving Straight Into The Non-Recovery (And 800 On The S&P)?

from Zero Hedge:

One look at Americans’ driving habits represented by total vehicle miles travelled through the start of the Second Great Depression shows a simple chart: an uninterrupted diagonal line from the lower left to the upper right, which makes sense – a growing economy means more commuting, means more driving, means more demand to get from point A to point B, means more miles driven, and so on.

Then something happened.

As […]

Astonishing chart suggests there’s virtually zero chance of recession now

From Carpe Diem:

The chart above shows University of Oregon economics professor Jeremy Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” from January 1990 to November 2012, based on the 4 monthly variables used by the NBER to determine U.S. recessions: 1) non-farm payroll employment, 2) the index of industrial production, 3) real personal income excluding transfer payments, and 4) real manufacturing and trade sales.

According to Professor Piger, “Historically, three consecutive months of recession probabilities […]

Someone tell Belski the US is 5 months until the next recession is due simply based on history

from Zerohedge:

Just under two months ago we noted, somewhat comedically, that the Fed’s researchers were ‘confused’ that its models (the wonderful DSGE) pointed to ‘explosive inflation’ given its current ZIRP regime. Perhaps those same PhDs will also be surprised to note that, based on the 44 month average length ‘out of recession’, that the next recession (as proffered by the NBER) is due to begin March 2013 (though of course, the resolution of […]

The Market Just Figured Out Two HUGE Problems

by Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

The US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%.

 

There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items:

 

Everything that was a problem in the run up to the US election is still a problem (in fact many issues are now worse than they were a few months ago).
Having […]

The Market Just Realized Two HUGE Problems

by Phoenix Capital Research

The US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%.

There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items:

1)   Everything that was a problem in the run up to the US election is still a problem (in fact many issues are now worse than they were […]

What you should know about the serious slowdown in stock market earnings

From The Reformed Broker:

What could go wrong?

The Fed is DJing the hottest dance party ever, and everyone is getting down. Well, not everyone, but you get the idea. Anyway, if there’s anything that could derail us, it’s an ordinary, cyclical recession. The kind we used to have before Greenspan decided they were no longer necessary.

Today, I’d like to talk about the relationship between earnings recessions and economic recessions. Because we’re […]

Five Years Of Jobs Versus Entitlements

Five Years Of Jobs Versus Entitlements

by ZH

The Second Great Depression officially started in December 2007. The NBER tells us that the recession that started at the same time ended some time in the summer of 2009. The Second Great Depression continues. The chart below shows the cumulative increase in Americans receiving foodstamps and disability benefits since December 2007 on the positive Y-Axis, and the jobs lost on the negative […]

Please Listen Carefully: This Is An Economic “Perfect Storm.” All Of Our Nine Scenarios End In Bad News For All Markets, Spell Danger For Your Future Income, Your Family’s Security. START PLANNING NOW.

breaking

Death of ‘Growth Economics’ spells danger

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

“Is the U.S. Condemned by History to Slow Growth?” asks Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Yes. But for traders and investors, it’s far worse than just bearish slow growth. Plan for no growth or zero growth.

Why? Wall Street, America and the world economy are in the early stages of a long era of “de-growth,” a reversal of economic growth and reduction in […]

The New Recession Is Here And It Can’t Be Stopped

Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis

There is a big difference between making a claim the economy is in recession from a claim the economy is headed for one.

Case for a Global Recession

I think the entire global economy is in recession and said so on July 6, 2012 in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived

However, we need to define the term “recession”

Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two […]

HUSSMAN: THE RECESSION IS HERE

Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

John Hussman has long been on the recession bandwagon and he says his call is finally coming to fruition.  In his latest note he highlights the evidence showing that we have reached the point that clearly delineates expansion from new recession (via Hussman Funds):

With regard to the economy, I noted two weeks ago that the leading evidence pointed to a further weakening in employment, with an abrupt dropoff in industrial […]

NBER’s Martin Feldstein Bashes The Deplorable US Economy, Says Bernanke Has Engineered Another Stock Bubble

That the market is merely yet another transitory sugar high bubble creation of the Chairsatan and his central planning colleagues in various marble buildings around the world is no surprising to anyone, at least not anyone who maintains a pretense of objectivity, is not desperate to sell a weekly newsletter, and has a frontal lobe. What however is not only surprising, but outright shocking, is that such embedded members of […]

What “Dr. Copper” is saying about the economy now

by thetechnicaltake

 

It is often stated that copper is the metal with a Ph.D. in economics, and the data for the most part bears this out.

Figure 1 is a monthly chart of copper (cash data) with NBER dated recessions noted by the indicator in the lower panel. With the indicator in the down position, the US economy is in recession; when the indicator is up, the US economy is expanding. As can […]