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(1) His thoughts on gold falling below 1400/oz again. (2) How the gold cartel will collapse. He believes that this is like the German invasion of Russia, and how Germany still lost (despite the odds). He compares the Germans to the Cartel. (3) How gold should be going up since the yen has been falling (yet gold isn’t going up in dollar terms) The forecast for the first two weeks of May is well below normal, so odds are that the spring of 2013 will be the coldest on record in the US. This is what Fort Collins looked like at 7pm today (May 1.) http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05/02/us-headed-for-the-coldest-spring-on-record/ From Casey Research: In a wide-ranging interview with Casey Research editor Louis James, Doug Casey discusses why it’s imperative to start diversifying one’s assets today, and provides some guidance in considering countries to diversify into. L: Doug, we’re getting a lot of questions from readers on how to follow your advice to diversify assets politically. I know it’s a prickly subject, but what can you tell us about getting our money out from [...] Anna Wilde Mathews and Louise Radnofsky Health insurers are privately warning brokers that premiums for many individuals and small businesses could increase sharply next year because of the health-care overhaul law, with the nation’s biggest firm projecting that rates could more than double for some consumers buying their own plans. The projections, made in sessions with brokers and agents, provide some of the most concrete evidence yet of [...] On average, objects of that size are estimated to hit Earth about once every 1,000 years. from kimblechartingsolutions: CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Sometimes it pays to get lucky! Was the car lucky in the above photo? When it comes to potential “close calls” the price action on a weekly basis in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) might not get any closer! The “weekly” closing high last week was within 50 cents of the weekly closing high back in 2007! Odds are low that this unique will stay, yet if it [...] The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time high this week. And the S&P 500 is within points of its October 2007 high. Now what? S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall believes the odds suggest we’re going to go back down again, at least for a bit. He compares the situation to the story of Pheidippides, the Marathon messenger, who made it all the way to only to his destination instantly perish: If history [...] Financial Times Human longevity has improved so rapidly over the past century that 72 is the new 30, scientists say. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, said progress in lowering the odds of death at all ages has been so rapid since 1900 that life expectancy has risen faster than it did in the previous 200 millennia since modern man began to evolve from [...] Researchers studied records of almost 60,000 pregnancies over ten years Coffee may also make pregnancy last longer by a matter of hours Mothers-to-be who have a couple of mugs of coffee a day risk having an underweight baby, research suggests. Coffee may also make pregnancy last longer – but only by a matter of hours. The observations come from researchers who studied detailed records of almost 60,000 pregnancies from a ten-year period in Norway. The [...] From Ivanhoff Capital: When it comes to risk management, most traders and investors think only in terms of stop losses, position sizing, and profit protection tactics. There is no doubt that these are essential elements of the puzzle, but before we even get to them, we need to realize that there are two aspects of risk management that are equally important and often ignored – proper equity selection and market health. Successful [...] The government managed to get us passed the “fiscal cliff.” But they did so by creating three more smaller, but still substantial “cliffs.”
And according to Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Reinhart we’re likely to go over one of those cliffs, and it’s unclear what the consequences will be. First, let’s review how we got passed the “fiscal cliff.” Reinhart summarizes in a new research note: The “resolution” of the sudden stop in the federal [...] While the US continues to digest the details of the US Fiscal Cliff Deal (the only important item is that it does nothing to address our debt or deficit problems), the EU continues to proclaim the worst to be over… while its financial system crumbles from within. The latest EU official to sound the all clear is German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble. On Friday he told German newspaper Spiegel Online that [...] ASHINGTON (CBSDC) – Minorities who suffer heart attacks in poor neighborhoods are not nearly as likely to receive proper CPR compared to if they were to suffer from cardiac arrest in affluent white neighborhoods. A recent study from a group of medical researchers found that blacks and Hispanics are about 30 percent less likely to be aided by CPR than white people, with the odds being the worst when it involves a [...] From The Mercenary Trader: A few years back, top value investor Seth Klarman called this a “Twinkie” market – an unnatural concoction stuffed with artificial ingredients. The twinkie manufacturers, of course, are the world’s central banks. Whenever things have looked terrible, the CBs stepped in with stimulus and jawboning. (Hence the ‘artificial ingredients.’) The routine intervention of the Central Banks, plus the Greenspan Put transitioning to the Bernanke Put, have further led to [...] BERLIN—The European Union summit that ended Friday suggested Germany and France, always awkward partners in managing the three-year-old euro crisis, are increasingly at odds over how to resolve it. The summit produced a tortuous compromise between the currency bloc’s two biggest nations over the creation of a new euro-zone banking supervisor, but it also brought simmering disagreements between Berlin and Paris into the open. German Chancellor Angela Merkel balked at setting up [...] Obama’s odds of winning the re-election have collapsed since the first presidential debate, according to three separate measures: Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama only a 71% chance of reelection. That sounds high, but it’s down from 86% a week ago. And Silver says the Romney surge may continue. He says that it’s still too early to call the election a [...] From Sober Look: The combination of an Intrade spike in Obama’s victory odds and the president’s comfortable polling lead in battleground states makes his victory in November a near certainty. Barring a mishap in the upcoming debates, we should see more political status quo in Washington. In fact, according to JPMorgan, “since 1948, no challenger that lost ground in the polls in the month after his convention has ever been elected President.” As discussed [...] MADRID (MarketWatch) — The Moody’s Investors Service review of Spanish sovereign debt could come as soon as the close of Europe or U.S. markets Friday, say analysts. Moody’s said in August its review on Spain’s Baa3 rating would continue through the end of September, which is this Sunday. At the time it also said it was waiting on more information on recapitalization needs of Spanish banks, which is coming at [...] While certainly not always correct; the InTrade markets trading on the various outcomes of the Presidential have become increasingly liquid and active in recent weeks. As Morgan Stanley’s Vince Reinhart cleverly notes, by analyzing the odds for control of the Senate, the House, and the Presidential winner, one can arrive at some rather useful insights into the conditional probabilities of various tax-and-spending-related outcomes.
Critically, he notes that while Obama is a [...] From Money Crashers: If you’re like most Americans, you’re surely in search of new, creative ways to ease your annual tax burden. Fortunately, there are several ways you can cut your taxes or increase the amount of your tax refund without incurring the wrath of the IRS. Tax credits and allowable deductions come and go as the IRS alters their rules and regulations from year to year. However, there are a number [...] From Money Crashers: Neither I nor any other “expert,” regardless of our professional credentials or business achievements, can guarantee that you will reach any of your personal milestones. However, there are principles and key practices that are followed by every successful investor and will improve the odds that you too can achieve your objectives. 1. Spend Less Than You Earn This first principle is easily the hardest to implement and the most essential to [...] Since last October, it has been known that Rep. Ron Paul would pick Jim Grant as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. Both are among the most vocal critics of the Fed’s current monetary policy path. However, what are the odds that Paul himself becomes the next Fed Chairman? From Morgan Stanley’s latest Strategy Forum report:
businessinsider (Reuters) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel and the United States were in talks on setting a “clear red line” for Iran’s nuclear program, but the two allies remained at odds on Monday over whether to spell out a clear threshold for military action against Tehran… http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE8891C920120910 Legendary investor Doug Kass just cut his fair market value estimate on stocks.
“To summarize, in large measure, the worsening macroeconomic situation in Europe, China and the U.S. is leading me to modestly reduce my calculation of the S&P 500′s fair market value from 1,415 to 1,390, which is about 1% below the cash level at Friday’s close of trading (1407),” wrote Kass for Real Money Pro. Among other things, he increased his odds of [...] The odds the United States will slip back into recession next year have risen, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said, citing risks from the European debt crisis and budget tightening at year-end. The US ratings firm raised the chance of the US falling into recession to 25 percent, up from a 20 percent chance estimated in February, as the world’s largest economy struggles to recover from a severe 2008-2009 slump. It also [...] Daily Ticker Interview
More than two years before the housing bubble burst in 2006, economist Gary Shilling warned that subprime loans were probably “the greatest financial problem” for the future U.S. economy. In 2007 he said “housing would sink the economy,” and a year after that he warned of a “serious recession” that would consume most of 2008. He was right every single time. Now Shilling says a new recession has begun in the [...] Could be used by shops to offer discounts to customers Users must sign up to take part and ‘teach’ system what they look like Shoppers could soon be automatically recognised when they walk into a shop using a controversial new camera. Called Facedeals, the camera uses photos uploaded to Facebook to recognise people as they walk in. Shoppers who agree to use the system, which has [...] From JPMorgan’s Tom Lee, the one paragraph summary of the fiscal cliff and the market:
We see ~15% chance of falling fully off the cliff. We think the odds don’t change much regardless of who wins the White House in Nov. Under this adverse scenario, the S&P500 could have downside to 1100. We think the most probable outcome is Washington “punts” the fiscal outcome by 6 months, by delaying both (i) [...] The Fiscal Cliff Explained “Fiscal cliff” is the popular shorthand term used to describe the conundrum that the U.S. government will face at the end of 2012. U.S. lawmakers have a choice: they can either let current policy go into effect at the beginning of 2013 – which features a number of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to weigh heavily on growth and possibly drive the economy back [...] |
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