Bullish on Oil Prices? Two Reasons You Might Change Your Mind
George S. Mack of The Energy Report (4/2/13)
The downturn beginning in 2008 triggered a macroeconomic meltdown that would disrupt all markets, domestic and global. Demand for petroleum diminished just as new technologies were beginning to gush out oil and gas in never-before-seen volumes, creating a perfect storm that would depress prices. Now that oil prices have rebounded, is the worst [...]
Friday will most likely be the release of Toronto’s september real estate data. ( downtown core condo and new housing will most probably be -unhappy and unwelcome news)
It will likely be bad news and the same as Vancouver’s data and the downward spiral begins…why is this important???
Because a combined Vancouver and Toronto real estate market downturn will spell doom and possible bancruptcy for the Canadian government.
The majority of real estate [...]
Interesting story behind how the Koch Brothers accumulated their wealth. It was from the helping hand of Josef Stalin.
Dance with the Devil
The good news in 1929 for young MIT chemical engineer Fred Koch was that he had successfully developed a superior oil refinement process with a business partner. The bad news is that he had a bitter lesson to learn about his laissez-faire competitors when virtually every major US oil [...]
From Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research:
At the latest Casey Research conference, respected investment analyst Porter Stansberry stood at the podium and predicted that the price of oil will fall below US$40 per barrel within the next 12 months. Part of his reasoning revolves around the impact that the shale gas revolution has had in the United States – he believes a similar thing will happen with oil.
From Hard Assets Investor:
Oil production in the United States continues to boom.
The Department of Energy reported this morning that in the week ending April 20, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories were unchanged.
Crude oil prices were little-changed after the latest inventory figures, as both Brent and WTI continue to [...]
MADRID (MarketWatch) — Spain’s economy is back in recession after a mild recovery in early and mid-2011, and faces an “exceptional” situation that may led to further increases in unemployment, Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said Tuesday.
The euro zone’s fourth-largest economy is also conducting what Fernandez Ordonez called an “unprecedented” fiscal adjustment–seeking to lower its budget deficit from 8.5% of gross domestic product last year [...]
When it comes to energy, and specifically crude oil trading, few names are as respected, if controversial, as former Citi star trader, Andrew Hall, whose $100 million pay package in 2008 forced Citi to sell energy unit Phibro to Occidental. He currently is primarily focused on his own fund Astenbeck, where he trades what he has always traded – commodities, and primarily oil. As such, his view on the oil market is [...]
Washington, D.C. – In response to recent reports that excessive oil speculation adds 56 cents per gallon to what consumers in Minnesota and across the country pay at the gas pump, U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) today (Tuesday, March 20) introduced legislation to bring down gas prices by cracking down on oil speculators.
Sen. Franken said Minnesotans now pay an average of $3.68 a gallon for gasoline, up a full 10 cents [...]
Saudi Arabia is taking steps to cool the overheating global energy market, boosting its exports to the US and re-opening old oilfields to expand production, as the world’s largest oil producer tries to prevent damage to the global economic recovery.
The Saudi cabinet on Monday said the kingdom would work “individually” and with others for the “return [of] oil prices to fair levels”. Riyadh recently said it aimed to keep [...]
(Christian Science Monitor) “The firms involved have asked the US State Department to approve this project, even as they’ve told Canadian government officials how the pipeline can be used to add at least $4 billion to the US fuel bill,” Philip K. Verleger, president of PKVerleger LLC, aColorado consulting firm that specializes in research on oil market economics, wrote in a Minneapolis Star-Tribune commentary last March.
US farmers who spent $12.4 [...]
Nearly buried in the snooze-fest of Friday’s stock action was a swift retreat in small caps, most notably the Russell 2000 RUT -1.57% .
The index sank 1.6% on Friday to 802.42, the largest percentage decline this year and its lowest closing value in a month.
For the week, it lost 3%, skidding past the large-cap benchmarks. The S&P 500 SPX -0.33% ended up 0.3% for the week. [...]
Rising gas prices are always a bad thing for an incumbent president, especially one heading into a tough re-election battle.
But President Obama admitted in a speech in Miami last week that there’s not all that much he can do to blunt the impact of prices, which some analysts think could be heading toward $5 per gallon nationwide this summer.
“The amount of oil that we drill at home [...]
JPM brings some less than good news for the administration, which unless planning to propose another $500 billion or so gas price offsetting fiscal stimulus (which would bring total US debt to $17 trillion by the end of 2012) may find itself with the bulk of its electorate unable to drive to the voting booths come November. In a just revised crude forecast, JPM commodity analyst Larry Eagles, has hiked [...]
Abdalla el-Badri, Opec secretary-general, on Tuesday warned of volatile crude prices as the oil market adjusted to Europe’s embargo on Iranian oil imports.
In an interview in London, Mr El Badri said it would take time for European Union countries to find a replacement for the 500,000 barrels a day of oil it normally imported from Iran. “During this period, there will be volatility … and price swings,” he said.
But he [...]
by Jan Lundberg
29 December 2011
If you can picture 15 million barrels of prime Persian Gulf oil each day going through a narrow strait, that of Hormuz, it’s not hard to understand that
a serious choking action could touch off petrocollapse. That is, if you understand the extreme volatility of the oil market and the potential for a
crippling blow to the prevailing just-in-time-delivery system of commerce.
Alas, this understanding is not in the [...]
To have a short position, someone either needs to own the security, or needs to be able to locate it; the latter is when we call it a ‘naked short’. There is not enough gold bullion to locate to justify their short positions. This mean that their shorts are unqualified. So if the CFTC ever decided to be a properly run government organization (they won’t be) then [...]
Crude is less than $1 dollar from where it was before Obama made the controversial decision to tap the strategic reserves. Click chart for more on oil prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Oil prices have surged in the last few days and are now less than a dollar from where they were when President Obama made the controversial decision to tap the nation’s strategic reserve [...]
This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, report on scrapyards being the new pawn shops, Chinese ground troops marching on D.C. and the real British bank exposure to bad Greek debt. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Leah McGrath Goodman about her new book: The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World’s Oil Market.
KR on FB: www.facebook.com/KeiserReport
1) U.S. Default Would Change Fundamentals of Rating, Moody’s Says
“The U.S. would risk not winning back its top Aaa credit rating soon if a failure by Congress to raise the nation’s debt limit causes even a short-term default, according to Moody’s Investors Service’s senior credit officer.
“Up until now, our assumption was that the risk is virtually zero of them ever missing an interest payment,” Moody’s Steven [...]
From Sean Corrigan
A Long Way from Reaching Our Peak
Inspired, among others, by the typically apocalyptic, ecological maunderings of Jeremy Grantham (the renowned investor here providing us with classic evidence of the general non-transferability of specific expertise from one metier to another), the recent overwrought oil market has brought the Exhaustionists out in full force, each plaintively wailing of the dangers of Peak Oil (as [...]
by Arthur Robey
Instead, it is our opinion that in recent years, because they drew the wrong conclusions and over-invested, they caused a speculative bubble in commodities, particularly in the oil market. Rather than profiting from existing trends, investors greatly accelerated and to some extent caused those trends.
from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/68101/dresdnercommerzbank-blames-oil-speculators/ link supplied by MRobinson.
Precis: Ben’s money has gone into speculation, causing bubbles in commodities. (See sugar hit above).
My comment: This [...]
by TF Metals Report
Our Only Hope: You
So I’m flipping through the channels late Wednesday night and I stop on O’Reilly visiting with Lou Dobbs. I notice that they’re talking about oil prices so I figured I’d give it a listen.
As the interview dragged on, I was amazed at their points of view.
O’Reilly: Its all the evil speculators, oil companies and OPEC who are at fault. They [...]
I just found the culprits. It turned out to be the usual suspects once again. But they are outside of the US and are in it for their LONG TERM gain, thus by-passing Obamas search criterion.
“Traders of the the ICE core membership (GS, MS, BP, DB, RDS.A, GLE & TOT) wouldn’t really have to put much money at risk by their standards in order to move or [...]
And for today’s case of pure unadulterated idiocy:
( RTR ) 04/21 02:30PM OBAMA SAYS HAS ASKED ATTORNEY GENERAL TO CREATE TEAM TO “ROOT OUT” FRAUD, MANIPULATION IN OIL MARKETS THAT COULD HIT GAS PRICES
( RTR ) 04/21 02:31PM OBAMA, IN PREPARED REMARKS, SAYS TEAM’S FOCUS WILL INCLUDE OIL MARKET TRADERS AND SPECULATORS
( RTR ) 04/21 02:31PM OBAMA SAYS WILL MAKE SURE THAT NO ONE IN OIL [...]
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently offered an unusually candid look at Saudi oil production, saying that while February hit 9.1 mbd, March was down to 8.3 mbd and production will only be a little higher in April. He cites the decline as evidence that the market is oversupplied. He has just cause.
Undoubtedly demand for OPEC crude “feels” weak at the moment due [...]
And for those wondering, when is the last time Goldman ever dropped their oil price forecast? Well, usually a month or so before the firm hikes it to $150 (see 2008).
From David Greely
While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight
The unfolding events in North Africa and the Middle East have pushed up Brent crude oil from $100/bbl in [...]
While American drivers are spooked by $4-per-gallon gasoline prices in the U.S., they may be shell-shocked on other continents like Europe. In London, gas was $8.17 per gallon in March, and in Istanbul, Turkey the price was $9.63, according to DailyFinance.
Leah McGrath Goodman, author of “The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World’s Oil Market,” said at least two factors contribute to the variance in global gas prices. First, countries [...]
We are closing our CCCP basket trade, first recommended on December 1, 2010, for a gain of roughly 25% against our 28% target. This recommendation was premised on our belief that Crude Oil, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum remain the key structurally supply-constrained markets. On a 12-month horizon we believe the CCCP basket still has upside potential, but the unrest in the Middle-East and [...]
Oil Will Be Gone in 50 Years: HSBC
Published: Wednesday, 23 Mar 2011 | 2:55 AM ET Text Size
By: Patrick Allen
There could be less than 49 years of oil supplies left, even if demand were to remain flat according to HSBC’s senior global economist Karen Ward.
“Energy resources are scarce,” Ward said in a research note. “Even if demand doesn’t increase, there could be as little as 49 years [...]
Overall, based on our current understanding of the situation in Japan,
we are inclined to stay the course regarding our recommended
tactical asset allocation positioning. We continue to recommend an
overweight position on global equities vs. bonds but stress the virtues
of purchasing downside protection at a currently still reasonable price.
While the VIX volatility index – a rough measure of the price of
downside protection – has picked up somewhat in recent days, it
still remains [...]
(Reuters) – U.S. drivers will pay another 10 cents a gallon for gasoline before the latest jump in wholesale costs is fully passed on at the pump, and yearly motor fuel costs will rise 28 percent from last year, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.
The average U.S. household will spend about $700 more for gasoline in 2011 than it spent last year, bringing total [...]
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Gas prices have increased 17 cents a gallon in the past week. And analysts expect prices to continue higher, following a sharp rise in the price of crude oil.
The national average price for a gallon of regular gas rose 4.6 cents to $3.33, motorist group AAA said Saturday. That marks the fourth day in a row that prices have risen, and [...]