by bitkogan Recent research from the Saint Louis Fed suggests that while energy prices are too volatile to accurately predict inflation, food prices can provide some insights. So far in 2023, food has been the most effective indicator for predicting inflation, with …
by BoatSurfer600 The Fed has so far saved the stock market from crashing, thanks to massive liquidity, Ed Yardeni said. He pointed to the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, which offers short-term loans to lenders. Quelled volatility suggests those loans …
by confoundedinterest17 It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Business outlook remains grim at -23. This comes after yesterday’s terrible Empire State print. Between Biden’s energy policies and massive spending by Biden/Congress, we are seeing the raging effects of …
Moody’s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing ‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment’ In a harsh blow to an already-reeling sector, Moody’s Investors Service cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable. The firm, part …
Home Depot’s revenue fell short of Wall Street’s estimates in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report Tuesday amid a slowdown in the home improvement category. The company also provided a muted outlook for the next year because of a tough consumer …
by confoundedinterest17 Three regional Fed reports I like to watch are New York’s Empire State Outlook, Philly Fed’s Outlook and Richmond Fed’s outlook. Today, The Richmond Fed released their manufacturing outlook and … it declined to -11. So the big …
by confoundedinterest17 The numbers coming out today are not good. November numbers were 1) US Industrial Production was down -0.2% MoM, 2) manufacturing production is down -0.6%, 3) retail sales advanced down -0.6% (most in 11 months) and … The …
by Michael I know that things aren’t great right now, but please try to enjoy the next few days, because it appears that economic conditions could quickly get a whole lot worse after Thanksgiving. I understand that may be difficult …
by confoundedinterest17 Call out The Birds Of War! Aka, The Federal Reserve. The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook plunged to 1-9.40% YoY, the worst since 2012. Notice how the Philly Phed Plunge is related to M2 Money growth YoY. Birds of war!
The crucial metric for the Bank of Canada in both surveys is inflation expectations. What consumers and businesses believe about future price increases can affect the trajectory of inflation, as employees negotiate higher wages and companies raise prices to protect …
by Boo_Randy The UK just pulled ahead of the US by a nose in our race to become a full-fledged banana republic. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11285371/UK-Government-debt-outlook-cut-stable-NEGATIVE.html A top US credit rating agency has lowered its outlook for British government debt from stable to negative after …
Slowly approaching the Global financial crisis given the outlook — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) July 19, 2022
Manufacturing Outlook pic.twitter.com/z7xrDeNqqH — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 22, 2022 Credit deterioration @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/MODF3aMpCk — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 22, 2022 CITI Economic Surprise Index (CESI) informs of economists estimates vs. realized economic outcomes on daily/weekly basis. Ex-Covid …
Morgan Stanley’s runner-up in the “Biggest Wall Street Bear” category (to BofA’s Michael Hartnett whose weekly Flow Show doom and gloom is now a source of inspiration for bears everywhere) is out with his own weekly dose of pessimism and …
MOODY'S, ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: WE ARE REDUCING GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND RAISING INFLATION FORECASTS. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) March 17, 2022 The y/y change in US rail volumes demonstrate freight downturns The Economic slowdown is here = stagflation UBS …
With more and more states legalizing the use of both recreational and medicinal cannabis, the industry is buzzing with high hopes for 2022. While some small cannabis outlets and stores are said to have largely suffered during the peak of …
by laflammaster Caption: UBS https://www.fitchratings.com/research… Caption: COMM https://www.fitchratings.com/research… Caption: Benchmark https://www.fitchratings.com/research… [CSWIDS] More Fitch ratings, this time on RMBS. Towd with only 10.4% above a long-term sustainable level. Starwood contain 54.2% are nonqualified mortgage. Oak with 65.1% designated as non-qualified …
by laflammaster Caption: Sunac https://www.fitchratings.com/research… Caption: Times China https://www.fitchratings.com/research… Caption: BoA Meryl Lynch https://www.fitchratings.com/research…
With #Inflation surging, #Shortages crippling the world, and business outlook tanking, it's time to ask whether we are headed for #Recession. All the signs point to a resounding answer of YES. Read our analysis here: https://t.co/6fUa3IiyfE — Egon von Greyerz …
CNBC, Released on 6/21/21 The Fed last Wednesday increased its inflation forecast and indicated two rate hikes in 2023. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said central bankers were considering tapering their massive Covid-era bond purchases. Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz …
Arizona has fallen from the nation’s ranks of most competitive economic outlooks after voters enacted a new income bracket to better fund public schools. The Copper State ranks 13th for economic outlook in the U.S in the American Legislative Exchange …
Did S&P go to sleep in 2019??The last two stimulus bills account for approximately 25% of GDP. Add another $2 or $3 trillion in infrastructure fiscal stimulus and your north of 33%. pic.twitter.com/98Ri9tXTrm — Jack (@JackPScott) March 16, 2021 US …
by Troy With the S&P at new highs this week, traders are generally divided into 2 camps: Those who think that December 2018 was a major bottom and the bull market still has years left (FOMO). Those who think that …
Fox Business, Released on 4/22/19 Danielle DiMartino Booth spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm …
US manufacturing flat in March, capping weak Q1 American manufacturing was flat in March, which was good news after sharp declines in the prior two months that combined for a dismal first quarter, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. That weak …
A quick reversal could reverse the slide in economic growth, but the lags are long. It appears that history is being repeated – too tight for too long, slower growth, lower rates. http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2019Q1NP.pdf AC
via fxstreet: Key highlights: • 2020 unchanged at 3.6%. • Says risks to the downside based on Brexit and US-China talks. • Says growth will stabilize in the first half of 2019, sees gradual recovery afterwards. • Sees global trade volume up 3.4% …
by Troy The economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why: The stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish. The medium term direction (e.g. next 6-9 months) is mostly …
by Troy With the 10 year – 3 month yield curve now inverted, it is time to look at the long term bearish case for stocks. Long Term Only 2 factors affect the stock market’s long term outlook: valuations and …
by WARREN MOSLER Rolling over: A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy Executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others are describing bleak macro-economic conditions around the world this week, which they …