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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may start dialing down its unprecedented bond-buying program this year and end it entirely in mid-2014 if the economy finally achieves the sustainable growth the Fed has sought since the recession ended in 2009. The Federal Open Market Committee today left the monthly pace of bond purchases unchanged at $85 billion, while saying that “downside risks to the outlook for the economy and [...] In its latest meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve said it will continue with quantitative easing, creating $85.0 billion in new money monthly, in order to bring economic growth to the U.S. economy. (Source: Federal Reserve, May 1, 2013.) The Federal Reserve, once again, didn’t provide any clear indication as to when it will end the quantitative easing; rather, the central bank stated it will continue to do the same “until the [...] The Worst Unemployment Crisis In History Is Unfolding Right Now At 27.2%, Spain is suffering the worst unemployment rate in modern history. Spain is tied with Greece, and is worse than the approximately 25% unemployment rate that the U.S. saw during The Great Depression. The causes, by now, are familiar — the end of a massive, bubble-fueled construction boom in 2008 led to spiraling unemployment and a deep recession, wreaking havoc on the [...] Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l21 min Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l10 h Reinman_MT‏@reinman_mt55 min (ANSA) – Rome, April 17 – Beppe Grillo, leader of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S), denounced two potential presidential candidates from other parties as “monsters” on Wednesday. http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2013/04/17/Grillo-denounces-parties-candidates-monsters-_8569759.html Egan-Jones downgrades Germany rating [...] From Russ Koesterich on the iShares Blog: The U.S. economy has impressively withstood January’s tax increase, at least so far. With the exception of one disappointing consumer confidence number, nearly all recent U.S. economic reports have come in better than expected. The most recent: last week’s lower initial jobless claims and strong retail sales data, and the U.S. economy looks set to accelerate from last quarter’s anemic growth. But investors wondering about the [...] Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, explains why he believes the markets are “significantly undervalued,” and provides his outlook on the economy. Some of the bearish calls we’ve heard on gold lately are closely tied to the outlook for real interest rates. The idea is that as real interest rates begin to normalize from ultra-low levels, gold will underperform. The inverse correlation between the price of gold and the interest rate on 5-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), for example, is fairly tight, as the chart below shows. Yet, when one examines the chart, as @Dutch_Book pointed out [...]
Outstanding discussion. Whalen with Tom Keene. Start watching at the 3-minute mark. Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — Chris Whalen, vice president of investment banking operations at Carrington Holdings, talks about the economy and the outlook for the banking industry.
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) — Steve Forbes, chairman and chief executive officer of Forbes Inc., talks about fiscal negotiations in Washington and the outlook for Italy’s economy. Forbes speaks with Adam Johnson and Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg) Biderman’s Daily Edge – New Year could see immediate recession at worst, slower growth at best Detroit’s financial condition is rapidly deteriorating, and City Hall could run out of cash in December, an official told a state oversight board Monday. City program management director William Andrews made the assessment at a meeting of the Financial Advisory Board, a city-state panel overseeing Detroit’s finances under its fiscal stability agreement with the state. Detroit’s cash-flow crisis is “more challenging than it’s ever been and more challenged than we reported last [...] A new survey of economists suggests unemployment is likely to remain right where it is over the next year, stalling at the current level of 7.8 percent through the fourth quarter of 2013. The widely watched National Association for Business Economics Outlook, a survey of 44 professional forecasters, says job growth next year is expected to average 155,000 per month, a modest figure that barely keeps pace with population growth and will not [...] Frank Holmes, chief executive officer of U.S. Global Investors Inc., discusses the outlook for gold. http://bloom.bg/WZLHZY From Financial Armageddon: Over the past two decades, whenever the year-on-year trend of durable goods new orders has been falling and subsequently drops below -5%, stock prices have generally followed suit – except recently. One reason why things are different this time, of course, is the Fed’s program of quantitative easing, which is helping to keep stock prices propped up despite a deteriorating fundamental outlook. Looked at another way, the current… Read full article… http://www.twitter.com/NourHammoury Not entirely surprising following the outlook changes for Germany, France, UK, and Holland but still an intriguing move right before Draghi’s big unveiling: Moodys maintains AAA rating but shifts to outlook negative. “Moody’s believes that it is reasonable to assume that the EU’s creditworthiness should move in line with the creditworthiness of its strongest key member statesconsidering the significant linkages between member states and the EU, and the likelihood that the large Aaa-rated [...] Far from making the outlook clear, last week’s somewhat better-than-expected jobs report appears to have muddied the outlook on Wall Street for what Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will do next. None of the data meaningfully changed the growth forecast. The government reported 163,000 jobs created in July, about 60,000 more than forecast, but the unemployment (explain this) rate ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent. Add up all the other data from the [...] John Taylor, founder and manager of the currency hedge fund FX Concepts, was just on Bloomberg TV this afternoon discussing his outlook for the crisis situation in Europe. Taylor said the world has only seen the “second or third inning” of the euro crisis because Europe is still only dealing with liquidity problems – not to mention the solvency problems and the “structural issues that are even beyond solvency” that must be addressed in order [...] http://www.twitter.com/FGoria From Pragmatic Capitalism: Sheila Patel, co-chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management International joined Bloomberg yesterday to discuss the outlook for Europe and why it believes European stocks are increasingly attractive. Its reasons for liking European equities: -Businesses in Europe are still very attractive. Read full article (with interview)… A year and a half ago, we featured a presentation by Robert Hirsch, the author of the first major US government report on peak oil. Peak oil is the theoretical point in time when oil production peaks and begins to fall. He recently reiterated his argument at this year’s Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference in Vienna. Before he began his remarks, Hirsch made sure to clarify that while he still believes the world faces a [...] https://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge June 26 (Bloomberg) — David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, Europe’s debt crisis and financials. Rosenberg talks with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance.” Bloomberg’s Christine Harper also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg) From The Reformed Broker: John Hussman’s outlook has been bearish for a while and he tends to skew a bit non-constructive over long periods of time, anyway. Hussman is on my must-read list and has been forever. Timing is harder than anything in making economic forecasts and he is very honest about this. That said, in his commentary yesterday he put up an interesting and urgent chart for those banking on the [...] |
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