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From Zero Hedge: The second half of 2012 saw a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy from calendar-based guidance to outcome-based guidance and the adoption of a 6.5% unemployment rate as a threshold for ‘tapering.’ With Friday’s better-than-expected payroll data and another tick lower in the critical-to-liquidity unemployment rate, it seems Goldman Sachs (and others) are waking up to the facts that we have been vociferous about: the shift of jobless individuals [...] The second half of 2012 saw a significant shift in US monetary policy from calendar-based guidance to outcome-based guidance and the adoption of a 6.5% unemployment rate as a threshold for ‘tapering’. With Friday’s better-than-expected payrolls data and another tick lower in the critical-to-liquidity unemployment rate, it seems Goldman Sachs (and others) are waking up to the facts that we have been vociferous about: the shift of jobless individuals from unemployment into [...] Interesting. A few days ago the same warning to evacuate was published in a semi-official NK mouthpiece. Same warning now being published in an official NK .gov publication - The inhabitants in five islets of the West Sea including islets Paekryong and Yonphyong and those residing in areas along the Military Demarcation Line had better evacuate before it is too late. In case of big armed conflicts in the Peninsula those [...] The talking heads in Washington preach and preach how we have to make sure every vote is counted and use BS arguments such as having to show an ID to vote is wrong. But when it comes to real issues that really affect millions of voters they turn their backs and walk away. Article: The project, which tracks military votes, found in 2010 that only 4.5 percent of the 2 million military and [...] zerohedge.com As class-warfare implicitly breaks out – trumpeted by our political leaders – it seems that there is another, much more relevant, trend that is occurring that strikes at the heart of our nation. With Friday’s jobs number still fresh in our minds, Citi’s Steve Englander takes a look at one small slice of the demographics subject and found a rather concerning and little discussed fact. Employment-to-population ratios among older [...] The percentage of able-bodied Americans searching for jobs has hit a 30-year-low, and Wall Street now expects the US Federal Reserve to announce a new round of quantitative easing as early as next week. In a statement made early Friday, Goldman Sachs tells reporters that they expect the Fed to announce plans for QE3 during an already scheduled meeting next week among the Federal Open Market Committee, more than a year [...] ADP got the headline job number correct, I certainly didn’t. However, one look beneath the surface shows this was actually an anemic jobs report. Unemployment was up, and the household survey shows a loss of 195,000 jobs. The household numbers are even worse because part-time employment went up. Jobs Report at a Glance Here is an overview of today’s release. US Payrolls +163,000 – Establishment Survey From Carpe Diem: Here’s some voodoo economics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture claiming that every additional $1 of food stamp spending magically creates almost $2 in new economic activity: Why does increasing participation in SNAP (the federal food stamp program, now known at the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) make sense for your community? SNAP Generates Economic Activity Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) on Monday proposed legislation that would block enforcement of President Obama’s new policy of letting certain illegal immigrants request temporary relief from deportation. Schweikert’s bill would specifically prohibit the Department of Homeland Security from allowing that relief, which Obama described on Friday as an option for up to 800,000 immigrants who came to the United States illegally at a young age. Schweikert said his bill would prevent [...] by MarcToMarket The March US jobs report will be released Friday, Good Friday, when many European countries are on holiday and the US is partially on holiday. Unlike the proverbial tree that may not make a sound, if there is no one to hear it, the data will be important even if the lack of market participation prevents much of a reaction. Given these circumstances, perhaps what will be more useful than a [...] March 12, 2012, at 6:32 pm Dear CIGAs, The way to handle a crisis is simple: Lie about the details and size. I spent the day in NYC at meeting on corporate affairs. We were sitting in a well appointed board room attended by twelve articulate, informed, mature, experienced investors and traders of the markets. One of the attendees asked if anyone knew what the number was on the [...] By Myra P. Saefong SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said Friday that the Greek government’s use of collective-action clauses, or CACs, to amend to terms of Greece-issued bonds qualifies as a “credit event” for Greece. A credit event requires a payout to those who held credit default swaps as insurance to protect themselves in the event of a Greek default. The ISDA decision could trigger [...] From FT: The US employment report for February contains further evidence that, on the surface at least, the American labour market is returning to normal. The unemployment rate of 8.3 per cent is 1.7 percentage points below its peak in October 2009. Yet consumer pessimism about job prospects remains almost as bleak as it was in the darkest hour of the recession. If the labour market is really improving as much [...] LONDON—Greece is optimistic that it will achieve a 75% to 80% participation in a bond swap this week that aims to write off more than half of €177 billion ($234 billion) in debt issued under Greek law, people with direct knowledge of the matter said Tuesday. That participation rate falls short of the 90% needed to avoid the activation of collective-action clauses that will pull in unwilling investors. The bond swap is [...] Ben Rooney @CNNMoneyMarkets NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — It looks like Greece will avoid an outright default in the short run now that eurozone finance officials have signed off on a second bailout for the debt-stricken nation. But the rescue package worth €130 billion is contingent on a historic debt reduction agreement with private sector investors that must be approved before any bailout money can be released. Assuming private sector investors [...] Civilian Participation Rate (CIVPART) Lots of questions, and unfortunately, answers, from Credit Suisse in this Q&A on the Greek default/restructuring, much of it already covered previously, but the only one that matters is this: “Would the restructuring make the Greek situation sustainable? No. Sorry, but no is the answer.Even with full repudiation of the Greek debt, the situation would not be sustainable. In that event, the deficit would move to the primary balance, 5-6% last [...] But wait, we thought Greece and the ECB had an upper hand? Wouldn’t they exercise said upper hand by now, considering its now 9pm in Greece on a Sunday, the day before the critical European finmin meeting by which point the Greek deal was supposed to be in place? From Reuters: Greece’s private creditors are working closely with Athens on a debt swap deal, their chief negotiator said on Sunday, adding that he was confident [...] by testosteronepit Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com 150 factory workers in China threatened to jump off the roof of an iPhone factory unless they received a raise. Similar stories are accumulating. Inflation, especially in food and other essentials, has been rampant over the last few years—and to make ends meet, desperate workers sometimes take drastic measures. These anecdotes underscore a major trend in China: skyrocketing cost of labor. In the US, it’s the opposite. Since 2000, real wages (adjusted [...] by ZH Readers can take advantage of the weekend which will be calm until late Sunday morning after which it won’t be calm, to familiarize themselves with the hurricane that is headed straight to global capital markets. Key Upcoming Events September 9: Deadline for private bondholders to declare participation in Greek Bailout by ZH And so once again Greece, and Europe in general, reminds the markets it exists, and in doing so sends risk lower across the board. The most specific reason cited why the Euro is in multi-month freefall, and French and Italian banks are tumbling is that today is D-Day for the Greek bondholder debt swap, which expires later in the day. As a reminder, as [...] Goolsbee Calls Jobs Report ‘Little Bump’ on Recovery Path “Austan Goolsbee, President Barack Obama’s chief economist, said today’s jobs report represents a “little bump” in the road to recovery and that the broader trends are “substantially more positive” than when Obama took office. “We should never read too much into any one month’s report,” Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview on [...] By CARRIE LUKAS, WSJ Tuesday is Equal Pay Day—so dubbed by the National Committee for Pay Equity, which represents feminist groups including the National Organization for Women, Feminist Majority, the National Council of Women’s Organizations and others. The day falls on April 12 because, according to feminist logic, women have to work that far into a calendar year before they earn what men already earned the [...] by Strategic Alpha Macro Update It appears to me that the markets are NOT listening to what Bernanke is saying: Apparently, I am told USDJPY rallied last night after Bernanke spoke on inflation but if you actually listen to what he said, he is quite clearly not worried by a transitory rise in inflation if wages do not follow! He went out of his way to suggest that the [...] Few things are more puzzling and disconcerting for an economist, and much of the American public, right now than the unemployment rate. From late 2008 to the end of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate jumped by 3.1 percentage points. What was so shocking about this was that the relationship between unemployment and the drop in the gross domestic product during the recession would have predicted only a 1.2 percentage point increase. [...] NFP 192K v 196KE, prior 36K revised to 63K Private 222K v 200KE, prior 50K revised to 68K Manufacturing 33K v 49KE, prior 49K revised to 53K Unemployment Rate 8.9% v 9.1%E, prior 9.0% Unemployment rate down to 8.922% from 9.050% as the participation rate held steady at 64.2% after dropping in Jan. Household employment up 250K during the month, while the not in labor force [...] by ZH Much has been said about Bernanke’s wealth effect and how it impacts a whopping 1% of the US population (traditionally, those very same bail out recipients who would be insolvent had Gen Ben not rescued the entire financial system at the expense of the DXY, which at last check was below 77 again). Unfortunately, a little less time has been spent discussing the equal [...] A week has passed since President Obama’s State of the Union address so we figured it was about time for a “rebuttal” from one of Tech Ticker’s favorite guests: Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates. It will come as no surprise to faithful viewers that Davidowitz remains Nic Lenoir of ICAP The data calendar is very light this week. The most of important piece of data is the Empire manufacturing survey which will or will not confirm recent uptick in industrial production. Claims will be of note as well after last week’s uptick. We are still far from seeing a trend confirming the job market is on stable footing. If this continues we [...] by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, telegraph.co.uk There is a telling detail in the US retail chain store data for December. Stephen Lewis from Monument Securities points out that luxury outlets saw an 8.1pc rise from a year ago, but discount stores catering to America’s poorer half rose just 1.2pc. Tiffany’s, Nordstrom, and Saks Fifth Avenue are booming. Sales of Cadillac cars have [...] by dpr10 The inverse silver lining to today’s jobs report that will be lost in the shuffle of what is perceived as a good NFP (despite consistent initial jobless claims of around 450K, which means that either there is a massive data error, or the rate of job creation has somehow surged) is that labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has [...] I dug into the report the government issued and found these highlights that help explain the breakdown and possibly why the report’s good numbers (and there was good news there) didn’t do that well in the market (besides the European headwinds). quote Manufacturing added 44,000 jobs in April. Mining added 7,000 jobs in April, In April, construction employment edged up 14,000,.. nonresidential building and heavy construction added 9,000 jobs each. Employment in professional [...] |
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