DOW Nears All Time High Despite US Economy Barely Growing
Dow nears all-time high
By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -.00% was 89 points from its record high finish of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007, while the S&P 500 SPX +0.12% was less than 50 points from its loftiest close of 1,565.15, reached the same day.
Slow Going: GDP Growth Inches Up
The U.S. economy barely grew [...]
An excellent piece of research by Neal Soss and Henry Mo of Credit Suisse may be found in the February 13th US Economics Digest. They used classical economic theory to examine the “elasticity” of changes in housing values and changes in the stock market with respect to personal consumption. They also examined the relationship of changes in disposable personal income to consumption. This superb work warrants discussion and examination. The implications for [...]
Ugly Q3 GDP Confirms Personal Consumption Collapsing
…Sadly not even Sandy can be blamed on the collapse in consumption in Q3, for the simple reason that the Hurricane did not hit until 1 month into Q4. Perhaps it is Sandy’s fault it did not hit sooner. In the meantime, all those hoping that the US consumer is finally waking up from his slumber and is spending (on credit of course) [...]
Why things don’t change:
1.) Humans have evolved to think in terms of the Here-and-Now.
This type of thinking is incompatible with solving problems whose true and full impact will not be felt until decades later.
“…Uncertainty reduces the frequency of pro-environmental behavior. People interpret uncertainty in ways that serve their self-interest. We undervalue geographically distant risks.”
2.) Ideologies blind Humans to unbiased thinking.
Examples of ideologies are religions (God controls every outcome), belief in [...]
John Williams, of Shadowstats, has warned that real earnings continue to literally collapse. Also note that the above graph illustrates consumer sentiment still remains below the 2003 market crash levels. Williams’ graphs are excellent depictions of what a collapsed economy truly looks like. They also show why the middle class in the Western world continues to be destroyed. Williams also shocked KWN with his graph showing real earnings tumbling, now nearly [...]
John Williams, of Shadowstats, discusses some extraordinary prices for gold and silver as well as giving an update on his hyperinflation watch. Williams also says that there is no recovery in the economy and inflation is picking up steam. Here is what Williams had to say about the situation: “Hyperinflation Watch: The upside pressure on oil prices, at the moment, largely is from escalating political tensions in the Middle East, not [...]
And so the year ends not with a bang but with an economic whimper, as the final Q3 GDP is revised lower from 2.0% to 1.8% on expectations of an unchanged print. The reason: Personal Consumption contributed only 1.24% instead of the 1.63% in the second revision and 1.72% in the advance forecast. No bias there at all. But sure enough, here comes the inventory kicker, which subtracted just 1.35% instead [...]
As President Obama campaigns for more government spending-a.k.a. his jobs plan-new unemployment claims provide fresh evidence the economy is stalling and in danger of slipping into a second recession. Big government could easily take unemployment above 15 percent and create a hole too big to ascend.
New jobless claims for the week of September 10 rose to 428,000, up from 417,000 the previous week. Having [...]
Aug 17, 2011
Since April the market as measured by the Standard & Poor’s stock index is off about 18% and momentum has fallen 40%. The recent catalyst for lower prices has been the drop in the debt rating by S&P of US Treasuries. In addition the economy is showing a pronounced slow down, as are many other countries. There is liquidity at major banks [...]
Data dump from today’s two economic releases:
• US GDP (Annualised) Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
• US GDP Price Index Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
• US Personal Consumption Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%)
• US PCE Core Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
• US Durable Goods Orders (May) M/M 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.6% Rev. [...]
U.S. economy weakened sharply last quarter as gas prices, bad weather crimped spending
US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
and the kicker:
US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Released on 9/27/2010 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2010
Prior >>>>>>>>> Actual
Level 0 >>>>>> Minus 0.53
“Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to â€“0.53 in August from â€“0.11 in July. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made a positive contribution in August. The indexâ€™s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to â€“0.42 in [...]