Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years
It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. Between the collapse in JGB implied volatilities in recent days, today’s melt-down in JPY (+255 pips from pre-open US levels), the last few days melt-up in the Nikkei (+6.8% in 3 days), and now the quadrillion Yen Japanese government bond market is halted [...]
Three Surprise Rate Cuts This Week
The Bank of Korea just unexpectedly cut its key interest rate to 2.5% fom 2.75%.
This is pretty remarkable, considering that market economists have already been surprised by two other central bank rate cuts this week.
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate to 2.75% from 3%.
Earlier Wednesday, the National Bank of Poland unexpectedly cut its key interest rate to 3% [...]
The Central Bank Is Starting To Say, Enough Is Enough
Fed says it’s running out of bullets
FOMC signals that bond purchases may stop
(MarketWatch) — For the first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary policy will start to get tougher.
To be sure, the change isn’t gigantic. There’s no sense that interest rates will [...]
Hitting the tape are leaked detailes obtained by Bloomberg detailing what the ESM will focus on as it is unleashed on the world. From Bloomberg: Europe’s permanent rescue fund will invest the core of its assets in AA or higher-rated debt issued by governments, central banks, euro-area agencies and international institutions, with the power to diversify into bank debt as it grows, its draft investment guidelines say, Bloomberg’s Brian Parkin, Rebecca Christie and [...]
From Zero Hedge:
Summary of what has been said so far: Nothing.
Draghi basically repeated the June 29 summit bottom line that the EFSF should buy PIIGS bonds, the ECB “may” act, which means Germany is still not on board, and that after talking markets up by 5%, he has delivered nothing but a delay. This is a huge blow to his and the ECB’s credibility.
* * *
With speculation ripe out of [...]
While Monti claims there is no need for an emergency summit and Spain and Italy ban short-sellers (but not long-sellers yet), Europe’s Dow-equivalent is down around 2.5%. Interestingly Italy and Spain ‘bounced’ off ugly lows intraday (which we are sure Monti/Rajoy are patting themselves on the back briefly) but France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX were sold hard – both down around 3% (as proxies as much as contagion-gatherers). More critically, equities [...]
EURUSD just traded under1.2150, down over 130 pips on the day. The question is – will wee see the ubiquitous rip-roaring reversion rally into the European close again? Rather notably this is as big a liquidity/break-up premium to its swap-spread-implied fair-value as we have seen since the peak of the crisis in mid November last year!
Today’s 4-sigma short-squeeze ramp in EURUSD (up over 220pips from pre-Summit-statement) is very reminiscent of the 10/26/11 reaction to the Greek debt deal. EURUSD rallied magnificently, squeezing a dominating short-crowd over 400 pips higher that time. But it is the impulse reaction that we note – within two days, the entire rally had faded and indeed went on to sell off for a few more months as reality struck. One month [...]
Hours ago, in addition to making Cypriot sovereign bonds no longer eligible as collateral at the ECB, the European Central Bank also announced something that received less attention, namely that itsbalance sheet rose by €31 billion in the past week (due to an increase in the MRO) to a new all time record high of €3.058 trillion. In other words, even as the Fed’s balance sheet continues to be flat, or is even [...]
The foreign exchange markets are brace for impact after OandA announced they will shut-down currency trading on Sunday ahead of the market-moving events
Last night we noted that OandA will shut-down trading on Sunday ahead of the market-moving events surrounding the Greek election (as it seems they are unwilling to take the agency risk and potentially counterparty risk on a large gap). Nowhere is this more clearly priced into the market than [...]
Bank loans dove 33% April and the May figures may be worse, with only ¥34B ($5.4B) advanced through May 20 (¥682B was loaned in April). The news seems to have hit stocks and the aussie dollar, off 40 pips in a few minutes.
China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit, three [...]
As we noted this morning, the perfect ‘reality-check’ storm hit Europe this morning and with Draghi dismissing hope for more printing and nationalism raising its ugly specter, broad European equity markets made nearly their largest drop in five months. With the BE500 (Europe’s S&P 500 equivalent) at three-month lows and Spain’s IBEX within a few points of the March 2009 lows, things are becoming critical once again. Spanish yields jumped back [...]
In a move that will surely shock, shock, the monetary purists out there, the Bank of Japan has just gone and done what we predicted back in May 2011, with the first of our “Hyprintspeed” series articles: “A Look At The BOJ’s Current, And Future, Quantitative Easing” (the second one which discussed the imminent advent of the ¥1 quadrillion in total debt threshold was also fulfilled three weeks ago). So just what did [...]
EURUSD longs just got punk’d again, with the EURUSD surging to over 1.32 on the fake BLS number (1.2 million labor force decline, whatever, with ), when it collapsed by 100 pips as the news we tweeted earlier that Greek PM Papademos may resign today throwing the entire Greek bailout out of the window, if his talks for further austerity fail. From Kathimerini: “Papademos is expected to meet PASOK’s George Papandreou, [...]
Remember when Europe was fixed, if only for a few weeks? Those were the times, too bad they are now officially over. EURUSD is back under 1.30 in thin volume because even as we “shockingly” find that, no, Greece did not have the “upper hand” since Greek bondholder negotiations just broke down (and that over the matter of a cash coupon delta between 3.5% and 4.0%, which implicitly means that [...]
Another week, another record bet on EUR currency collapse: this even in a countertrend week, when the EURUSD actually soared by over 300 pips. In other words, not only did shorts not cover, as some have suggested, they doubled down on losing positions, in the process bringing total net non-commercial spec contracts to -160K from -155K the week prior. As a result, should the EUR snap over the psychological barrier of 1.300 [...]
It would appear that the German public (and political class to some extent) are beginning to see the European project in the same manner as we described back in July. As the increasing burden of saving the eurozone from its own excess falls on the shoulders of every Tobias, Dirk, and Heike taxpayer in Germany, even industry leaders, such as Wolfgang Rietzle, the CEO of Linde, this weekend according to Reuters, are [...]
While it is unclear what just spooked the EURUSD, sending it lower by 70 pips in minutes, perhaps a better question is why the EURUSD is not thousands of pips lower to begin with. As a reminder everysingle large bank is pushing for a lower EURUSD on hopes that a EUR collapse will kill the market and send the ECB scurrying into printing money. The problem there is that the ECB [...]
With many expecting 2012 to be a replica of 2011, at least for US stocks which the non-permabull consensus sees closing the year largely unchanged for the second year in a row, one open question is whether this will also be applicable to Europe. As a reminder, the EURUSD opened this year near the 52 week lows, only to rise by several thousand pips as concerns about European contagion were [...]
Following a series of modestly successful debt auctions out of Europe, primarily in Spain and Greece, the morning capped its positive tone after the EFSF managed to sell €2 billion of 3 month deals: an event to which the EURUSD popped by 40 pips as apparently investors do not expect the EFSF to go insolvent in 91 days. However, the positive mood was quickly wiped out after Reuters reported minutes ago that [...]
When at first you don’t succeed… At this point they aren’t even trying: the main upward moving rumor yesterday, for those who have an HFT algo’s memory span, was that somehow the ECB would circumvent its charter, something which was expressly denied by every German involved, and lend directly to the IMF which in turn would lend to troubled countries. Because nobody would see through that particular ruse. Well the rumor [...]
Update: It’s Official
AZUMI SAYS JAPAN INTERVENED IN THE CURRENCY MARKET
AZUMI: JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTERVENE UNTIL HE’S SATISFIED
AZUMI SAYS INTERVENTION WAS DUE TO STRONG SIGNS OF SPECULATION – thank god Mrs Watanabe is not speculating on the short side.
Just in time for the MF Global news, we have what appears the latest Yentervention episode, as the USDJPY has just soared over 250 pips.We have no confirmation as of [...]
Just out from Bloomberg, citing the WSJ:
CLEARINGHOUSES SAID TO PREPARE FOR MF BANKRUPTCY, WSJ SAYS
US REGULATORS ALSO PREPARE FOR MF BANKRUPTCY, RESTRUCTURE: WSJ
The EURUSD has tumbled 50 pips in the aftermath of the news as risk just moved to the Off position
If there is one currency which can move almost 1000 pips lower in 10 days, the EUR it is. After Chinabot gave up on supporting the broken currency, whose viability is only better to the even more doomed US Dollar, but not before an epic run to safety sends the USD into a Volkswagen-like historic short squeeze, and after Goldman openly called for QE [...]
On the one week anniversary of Europe’s second bailout one may be tempted to ask “what bailout” looking at the across the board deterioration in European market metrics: Spanish 10 Year bonds over 6.00% again, Italy CDS surging to 330 bps, Italy Bunds spreads at 331 just inches away from all time wides of 353 bps, EURUSD plunging by over 100 pips overnight, CAC, [...]
Like clockwork, hours before the US market reopens, we get another Greece bailout. Since last week’s Chinese white knight “rescue” of Portugal helped the EUR for about 18 hours, it is now time to get the biggest guns possible out: the WSJ reports that Germany, contrary to populist demand which has indicated that another German bailout of Greece would mean the end of Angela [...]
And just as everyone was starting to bet on the great USD renaissance, here comes Thomas Stolper to spoil the party, by not only refusing to close out his EURUSD trade reco after losing 800 pips in two weeks (and still being profitable), but by actually doubling down: “We have changed our forecasts to project more Dollar weakness.” The reason is that the US apparently has [...]