by Charles Hugh-Smith The Fed has trained the trading-rats all too well, and there is no way to avoid the unintended consequences of the Fed’s large-scale human behavioral experiment. The Federal Reserve has been running a large-scale human behavioral experiment …
It will slowly start to dawn on people that we’re stuck with stubborn stagflation. h/t goldenloi
HONEST QUESTION: Many expect the Fed's interest rate hikes to "break something important", forcing a policy pivot The market expects the Fed to pivot by June, cutting rates thru the year (see chart) So if a crisis bad enough to …
Do you really want a pivot? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/Oi1B4qP2sO — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 29, 2023 Whoa. Pending Home Sales down 20%+ on a y/y basis for a record 9 straight months. https://t.co/Nn52tVjne0 pic.twitter.com/PI0tC7Hjyh — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 29, 2023 …
By Michael Lebowitz An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic and review the charts. The second largest U.S. bank …
by okie1 I wanted to wait for some more data to come in before making this, but it suffices to say that rumors of the fed pivot on social media are greatly exaggerated. Charts of the fed’s balance sheet have been …
by Infamous_Sympathy_91 The pivot is generally the precursor to the crash.
by hkboy3 I’m sure many of you know the Fed’s balance sheet increased by 300 billion last week. At the same time we have a sharp drop in treasury yields. This is a pretty good indication the Fed bought bonds …
by ObiWanCanownme Something will break. It just won’t be the U.S. federal government. Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated Keep an eye on the potentially large number of mortgage defaults: 10% of …
You dont really need to look at the fed watch tool (but it does help to see the accurate picture) – you can just infer this from looking at effective federal fund rate/1 year note/2 year note, etc. Really …
Private sector wages up 1.0% QoQ = smallest quarterly increase since Q2-21 The direction of travel is becoming very clear: – Core inflation🔻– Wages🔻– Pace of hiring🔻 Markets think they are getting what they want: a Fed pivot Could be, …
Off the Recent Lows Iron Ore +48%Silver +38%Copper +35%Uranium +32%Aluminum +25%Corn +20%Gold +19%Sugar +14%Oil +16%Coal +8%Wheat +2% *On Oct 21, 2022 – the Fed softened the path forward with a leak to the WSJ, this is how you nearly guarantee …
via WOLF STREET: We have a situation here. Folks are out there promoting the idea that the Fed cannot keep interest rates at 4.5% for long, and that it certainly cannot hike interest rates to 5.0% or 5.5%, because the amount …
h/t HelpingHandsUs
h/t PizzaOpen9340
by Ya-Booiii I’m honestly curious what you clowns think “pivot” actually means. Last I knew “pivot” meant changing directions in a 180 degree fashion which would equal when the FED goes from raising interest rates to then cutting interest rates. …
by Player896 So to start things off here is how the Fed would usually react to weakening economic conditions: Economic activity is weakening -> the Fed will ease financial conditions in order to minimize the economic pain The impact of rate …
Guest post by Alasdair Macleod from Goldmoney.com: Over the last two weeks gold and silver have continued to enjoy a significant rally, but this week has been one of consolidation. In European trade this morning, gold was at $1765, down …
by Lance Roberts Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve. However, those hopes got dashed each time as Jerome Powell clarified that the “inflation fight” remained the primary focus. Mr. Powell made that point very clear …
by BoatSurfer600 8 months of housing supply in #LasVegas. pic.twitter.com/Ou2pQUmHu7 — Rick Palacios Jr. (@RickPalaciosJr) November 5, 2022 FED’S BRAINARD: THE CURRENT MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINANCIAL SHOCKS. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) November 4, 2022
by Gary6587 I feel like we are probably approaching the final stages of the market moving based on Fed activity and are soon entering a new stage where deteriorating economic indicators and earnings start matter most. It’s been a hell …
by LessTalkMoreRock1 Nowhere in any of Jpows statements today did he suggest he will pivot to being dovish. He continued to say future decisions will be data dependent. Here is what he just said at the meeting verbatim: “Our decisions …
Wrapping my head around why anyone thinks Fed pivot: employment cost index came in at 5.0%, core PCE 5.1% – both accelerated m/m. — Stephanie Link (@Stephanie_Link) October 30, 2022 66% of American workers are worse off financially than a …
Guest post by David Brady from SprottMoney: In last week’s article entitled “Fed Pauses / Pivots”, I cited Nick Timiraos’ article in the Wall Street Journal “Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes.” …
h/t adamwcordell
If Powell tightens into a crisis, he can then pivot & safely (for him) do what central banks have always done. And most mkt participants will beg him to do it. If he pivots before a crisis & inflation accelerates, …
By Graham Summers, MBA The financial markets are now experiencing their 3rd “the Fed is about to pivot” delusion. Ever since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022, the financial media and social media have been abuzz with …
by Shaun Richards There have been 2 major economic themes so far this year. The first is the rise in inflation and hence the cost of living and the second has been the rise and indeed rise of the US …
by confoundedinterest17 Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s …
By Graham Summers, MBA Yesterday I asked, “is the Fed about to hit the PANIC! button like the Bank of England?” The markets certainly acted like it: stocks, Treasuries, oil, and gold erupted higher yesterday, fueled by the announcement that …