The current implied results for the US, UK, and the big 4 in Europe is more than a little worrying – with the French in most trouble.
As per Deutsche Bank:
At the moment the US equity market is 7% above where the ISM suggests it should be (was fair value last month before Monday’s disappointment), with the UK, Spanish, German, Italian and French markets 13%, 13%, 14%, 19% and 33% above [...]
Rachel Cooper
telegraph.co.uk
March 11, 2013
Data from Italy’s national statistics institute ISTAT showed that the country’s economy shrank by 0.9pc in the fourth quarter of last year and gross domestic product was down a revised 2.8pc year-on-year.
The economy was hobbled by chronically weak domestic demand and a fall in inventories, while exports posted modest growth.
Italy has been mired in recession since the middle of 2011 and is not expected to show any [...]
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say (Late 2012)
“In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead [...]
Forecasting isn’t an exact science, but researches at the New England Complex Systems Institute may have come up with a formulaic approach that can help them to identify risk factors that contribute to political instability which may lead to riots and civil unrest similar to what we saw in the Middle East this year.
Their model is so accurate that they reportedly wrote a letter to the United States warning of [...]
Egypt’s long-term credit rating was cut to the same junk level as Greece by Standard & Poor’s as escalating political tension in the North African nation may render aid from the International Monetary Fund “inactive.”
The most-populous Arab country’s rating was lowered by one level to B-, six steps below investment grade, with a negative outlook, S&P said in a statement today. The rating, which is also on par with Pakistan, [...]
Athens (MNI) – A growing number of Eurozone countries, led by Germany, are reluctant to release the first two loan tranches of the second bailout package to Greece, as they doubt about Athens’ commitment to reform, according to senior Eurozone officials.
The International Monetary Fund is also sceptical, fearing that the baseline scenario of the bailout is no longer realistic and that another debt restructuring may be inevitable, the top-ranking officials [...]
http://www.fitchratings.com/web/en/dynamic/fitch-home.jsp
From GoldCore
Gold Demands Trend (Q1 2012) – Enter The Dragon
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,547.00, EUR 1,217.44, and GBP 974.00 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,537.50, EUR 1,208.73 and GBP 966.31 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $27.48/oz, €21.77/oz and £17.43/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,443.50/oz, palladium at $592.90/oz and rhodium at $1,300/oz.
Gold edged down $2.90 or 0.19% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,539.40/oz. Gold climbed [...]
ATHENS — Talks to form a new Greek government collapsed on Sunday, when the leader of a left-wing party that favors rejectingGreece’s loan agreement with foreign creditors again refused to join a unity coalition, making new elections almost a given.
President Karolos Papoulias of Greece was expected to meet with the leaders of several smaller parties on Sunday evening to try to persuade them to join a two-year unity government with [...]
Published on May 10, 2012 by RussiaToday
Political parties in Greece are struggling to come up with a power-sharing coalition deal, sending the crisis-hit country into further turmoil. General elections on Sunday failed to produce an outright winner, with leading parties so far failing to form a government. Without an agreement, fresh elections would have to be held. On Thursday, Athens is due to receive 5.2 billion euros in [...]
Iranians and Arab Spring countries are buying “massive quantities of gold” in order to protect their wealth from political instability and depreciating currencies.
Iran boosted imports of gold, jewelry and precious metals from Turkey by 3,692% from $13 million in March a year ago to $480 million in March 2012, according to the statistics agency in Ankara April 30 – as reported by Bloomberg.
The gold market was the biggest contributor to [...]
mybudget360
The biggest economy in the world just reached a new peak with their unemployment rate. We are not talking about the United States but the massive Block In The Eurozone. The unemployment rate in the 17 country block reached a new all-time high at 10.9 percent as austerity measures are being used to combatmassive Levels Of Debt. There is no single rule of thumb as to how much debt is too [...]
The biggest economy in the world just reached a new peak with their unemployment rate. We are not talking about the United States but the massiveblock in the Eurozone. The unemployment rate in the 17 country block reached a new all-time high at 10.9 percent as austerity measures are being used to combatmassive levels of debt. There is no single rule of thumb as to how much debt is too [...]
Water wars could be a real prospect in coming years as states struggle with the effects of climate change, growing demand for water and declining resources, the secretary of state for energy and climate change warned on Thursday.
Ed Davey told a conference of high-ranking politicians and diplomats from around the world that although water had not been a direct cause of wars in the past, growing pressure on the resource if climate [...]
… PAUL MASON: And then there’s, on top of that, the whole question of political instability. You mentioned left-wing groups in your introduction. I think there’s a bit—in the mainstream media, there’s a bit of a “does not compute” going on. The combined vote, for the communists, Trotskyists and ecologists—so these are left-wing parties with hammer and sickle on their flags—is 43 percent right now in the polls. That dwarfs the equivalent of [...]
Excellent, just excellent analysis by Jim Puplava… and easy to read too.
(click here for link to entire analysis)
Summary
We now live in a new era of uncertainty—Pimco’s new “paranormal,” if you will. Our financial system continues to leverage up as governments replace the private sector in gearing up their balance sheets. Central banks are now embarked on a policy of reflation, monetizing a major portion of rising government deficits. The ECB’s balance sheet expanded [...]
I have a couple friends who have been out of work for nearly 2 years, both with college degrees and who work in the medical field. One also taught and the other even has 20 years experience as a paramedic before getting his radiologic sciences degree. One lives in Phoenix and the other in San Antonio, both places where you were able to get a job at the drop of [...]
My link
The spine of the Andes is one of the last great untapped mining resources. However, environmental concerns (some quite real IMO), and political instability and local corruption, needed to weighed in any decision to invest there.
Excerpts:
Lima, Peru (CNN) — Thousands of Peruvians continued protests Wednesday that began in October, targeting as environmentally hazardous the continued construction of a $4.8 billion gold mining project called Conga.
…
The protests continued despite Tuesday [...]
by ZH
The following note from JPM’s Ken Landon summarizes what, in the aftermath of an ECB which as Yves Mersch just noted, will not intervene in the markets due to the realization that monetization will bring about the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse, is the greatest threat to investors:strong>political instability, manifested either formally in the form of elections, or informally, in the form of occupations, riots, revolutions, civil wars, alien invasions, [...]
http://rt.com/news/greece-military-dismi…
The dismissal of Greece’s top military chiefs has the opposition up in arms. With the Greek crisis worsening by the day, PM George Papandreou has been accused of trying to rein in the armed forces before a potential government collapse.
Sweeping changes to Greece’s military leadership were approved by Prime Minister George Papandreou during a meeting of the Foreign and Defense Council in Athens today.
The Chief of National Defense, as well [...]
AFP
August 24, 2011
China’s largest oil and gas producer has shut down six major projects in war-torn Libya, Syria and other restive nations because of political instability, state media said Tuesday.
The decision came as Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi’s regime appeared close to collapse after rebels took over the capital Tripoli, and as other countries in the Middle East and Africa experienced bouts of unrest.
The projects in [...]
Gold for December delivery GC1Z +0.61% added $10.80, or 0.7%, to trade at $1,627 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Click to Play
Market alarm on stagnant debt talks
WSJ’s Paul Vigna looks at the mentality of traders going into a weekend filled with uncertainty and who may be wary of Asian markets opening on Sunday. Also, weak GDP figures were released. And. strong numbers from [...]
by ZH
The May Chicago PMI is out and contrary to the herd of clueless Wall Street idiots, better known in polite circles as economists, it came at 56.6 on expectations of 62.0, a collapse drop from the 67.6 before. This is the worst monthly drop since the economy imploded back in October 2008, and the second largest two month drop since 1980! A quick look [...]
CAIRO (AP) — A majority of Egyptians believe laws in their country should observe the teachings of Islam’s holy book, the Quran, according to the results of an opinion poll by a U.S.-based research center.
The results also show that Egyptians, who have shifted toward religious conservatism over the past 40 or so years, are open to the inclusion of religious [...]
by ZH
Prolonging negotiations past mid-May when Washington will hit its debt limit could give Republicans more leverage to secure big spending cuts, but it could worry investors as the country runs up against a possible default. The Republicans said they would act before that happened.” The only question is whether bond investors (no matter how deflationary attuned) will stay in bonds before any possible [...]
Agnes Dherbeys for The New York Times
Farmers in Thailand face a surging demand for cassava, a fairly new crop for biofuel production.
via NYT:
The starchy cassava root has long been an important ingredient in everything from tapioca pudding and ice cream to paper and animal feed.But last year, 98 percent of cassava chips exported from Thailand, the world’s largest cassava exporter, went to just one place and almost all [...]
Agnes Dherbeys for The New York Times
Farmers in Thailand face a surging demand for cassava, a fairly new crop for biofuel production.
via NYT:
The starchy cassava root has long been an important ingredient in everything from tapioca pudding and ice cream to paper and animal feed.But last year, 98 percent of cassava chips exported from Thailand, the world’s largest cassava exporter, went to just one place and almost all [...]
by The Dividend Guy, SA
After writing 5 reasons to be bullish on the stock market, I think I should play Devil’s advocate and present 5 reasons to be bearish on the stock market. I would say that it is probably the thing I hate the most about financial analysts and economists; they often have as many reasons to be bullish as they have to be bearish. In [...]
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/home/51530406-76/oil-obama-energy-gas.html.csp
Obama wants to cut oil import by a third by ´25
By RICHARD S. DUNHAM
Houston Chronicle
First published Mar 30 2011 08:51AM
Washington o President Obama, facing a persistent spike in gasoline prices and continuing political instability in oil-producing regions overseas, sought to reassure the nation Wednesday that he has a comprehensive plan to reduce American reliance on imported energy.
Speaking to students at Georgetown University in Washington, the president [...]
by ZH
From Market News: “Portugal’s President Anibal Cavaco Silva is prepared to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Jose Socrates and is getting ready to call an election to choose a new government, Portuguese daily Jornal Publico reported on its website Wednesday evening….The political instability that would ensue from a collapse of the government, combined with market tensions that have pushed Portuguese ten-year bond yields [...]
Frank Tang) – Gold rose more than 1 percent to an all-time high on Tuesday above $1,432 an ounce as chaos in Libya and political turmoil in the Arab world prompted safe-haven buying and soaring oil prices boosted bullion’s inflation hedge appeal.
Unrest across the Middle East and North Africa, which unseated leaders in Tunisia and Egypt before spreading across Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Iran, fueled a 6 percent rise in [...]
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/1_Rick_Rule_-_Upside_Blowout_in_Gold,_Destabilization_in_Silver.html
Quote:
With gold attacking all-time highs and silver making new multi-decade highs, today King World News interviewed Rick Rule of Global Resource Investments, now part of the $8 billion Sprott Asset Management. Rick has been calling these markets with remarkable precision as of late and his latest comments continue to surprise me only because these statements are coming from one of the most street smart [...]
by ZH
It was just earlier this week that a bunch of irrelevant confidence trackers said that US consumer confidence had hit 3 year highs. Oddly enough, ground data not only does not confirm this data, but says it is merely more baseless propaganda. According to Gallup, which actually knows how to poll, “Americans have become much less confident in the U.S. economy over the past [...]
An international buying spree, or flight to safety by global investors, saw silver prices breach 30-year highs on Sunday at $33.30 an ounce and in a continuation of the trend, spot silver prices were up further in early trade on Monday, making yet another high of $33.44/oz.
Emerging economies of China and India are both heavy consumers of the metal, which is used in jewellery but also [...]
By Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points
2011 Tipping Points (pdf)
Throughout my 2010 article series “Extend & Pretend” and “Sultans of Swap” I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 -2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 -2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum. [...]
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