From Peter L. Brandt:
Both the technicals and fundamentals point to the potential for powerfully higher prices [for grain markets].
I am basing this conclusion on price charts, although I could also create a fundamental scenario to support the conclusions. I may reference a few of the fundamentals without comment herein.
I provide this caveat – the technical bull case still has to be proven. Markets are about possibilities, not probabilities and not certainties. If [...]
From Carpe Diem:
The chart above shows University of Oregon economics professor Jeremy Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” from January 1990 to November 2012, based on the 4 monthly variables used by the NBER to determine U.S. recessions: 1) non-farm payroll employment, 2) the index of industrial production, 3) real personal income excluding transfer payments, and 4) real manufacturing and trade sales.
According to Professor Piger, “Historically, three consecutive months of recession probabilities [...]
For the 50 million Americans in poverty the probability of a recession is 100 percent. Growing economic divide for working class.
The probabilities of the US slipping into another official recession are growing. Don’t tell this to the 50 million people that are reportedly at the poverty level according to a new US Census report. This trend isn’t something new and it certainly is not going to be resolved overnight. We [...]
St. Louis Federal Reserve: There is now 100% chance of recession
The index has never approached 20% without a subsequent recession
During my usual morning reading process I came across a posting on PragCap by Cullen Roche regarding a chart of U.S. recession probabilities. The chart can be found at the St. Louis Federal Reserve website and is derived from a study by J. Piger and M. Chauvet, from the University of Oregon, which [...]
I see three levels in the evolution of how traders should measure their trading performance.
The novice trader should be measuring their trading based upon their trading program. Master the rules, selection, etc.
The experienced trader should measure their trading based upon a market benchmark that correlates well with their trading program.
The professional trader is focused on an absolute return mandate.
It is all about maximizing the edge you have defined. Forget [...]
The bank BBVA Compass is predicting that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 election as economic conditions continue to deteriorate over the next few months. In a research note Wednesday, the bank said it expects manufacturing activity to slow, causing further sluggish job growth that has become the norm of the past few months. From the note:
Mitt Romney will be victorious according to our vote-share model, assuming our revised baseline scenario. Under current conditions, however, opinion polls, options [...]
Following is a list of ten of the U.S. companies which GMI Ratings (a governance research firm) has identified as having a high likelihood of insolvency in the next twelve months.
This list is by no means comprehensive, nor are these the companies at greatest risk. Rather, they present potential solvency issues that have not yet been identified by the marketplace.
Click here to see the companies >
Analysis using GMI Ratings’ Bankruptcy Risk Model places [...]
Citi’s economics team led Willem Buiter and Michael Saunders made some noise late last week when they wrote that Greece would exit the euro on January 1, 2013.
Despite the results of this weekend’s Greek elections, which favors bailouts, austerity, and the euro, Citi continues to believe Greece is likely to exit the euro.
Here’s a clip from the published by Citi’s Jurgen Michels:
Initial reactions from European officials welcome the outcome of the election, but made very clear [...]
Both hyperinflation and protracted deflation are extraordinary economic events. And it is telling that they are much more common in the 20th century and after than in all preceding recorded history. Ah, the joys of modernity.
While prices can certainly increase based on fluctuations in supply and demand, by definition ‘a general price inflation is an increase in the money supply without a corresponding increase in real output causing an increase [...]
Meet The New Paradigm, Same As The Old Paradigm
Tying It All Together.
The people I speak to tell me that the extreme volatility and general market weakness last year was the aberration. The normal was the bounce we saw in 2009 and extension into 2010 — even though that extension was in dire need of a late-year round of QE2 intervention.
I’m actually wondering if it isn’t the opposite. That last year was [...]
Chaos Theory, via Pimco
Debating a future of inflation vs. deflation is radically new territory for investors. The chaotic nature of the choice facing societies is whipsawing equity markets and dominating bottom-up factors.
Equity investors seem to be pricing in a combination of outcomes, with the largest weighting going to a goldilocks, mild inflation scenario. But the market’s large daily swings reflect jumps back and forth as investors update the probabilities of very [...]
Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes
By Tom Spears
Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.
The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But [...]
With tonight’s multi-year record CNY fixing and trillions being flushed at maintaining an arbitrary JPY line in the sand, it seems appropriate to re-consider how to hedge a China hard landing and what probabilities various asset classes are assigning to it occurring. While many are pointing to what seems an entirely capricious level of 79.20 JPY to the USD as the ‘new normal’ being defended, we were curious at [...]
On Monday, Goldman was the first bank to go ahead and hike its recession odds for the US from 30% to 40% (needless to say assigning probabilities to a non-linear outcome is utterly ridiculous but we’ll play along), additionally saying that both France and Germany will enter a recession shortly. Promptly, Wall Street followed. Yet despite the glaringly obvious, still nobody dares to assign [...]
August 24, 2011
The fundamental fires are raging; but the dollar and broader markets will struggle for direction going forward as the possibility of QE3 adoption by the close of the week petrifies the speculative masses. We could already see the influence that this uncertain but very important event has over the markets through the opening session of the new trading week. For the [...]
Figure 1 is a weekly figure of the US
Dollar Index. This is the same graph we have shown for weeks upon weeks
now, and with a weekly close below the key pivot at 74.62, there is a
high likelihood that the Dollar Index will trade lower.
Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
Key pivot points are the best areas of support and resistance, and at the end of this week, price will close below a [...]
FMX | Connect Special Report: Silver
At FMX|Connect we offer little variety in the technical analysis arena. We leave that expertise to Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover fame, one of the preeminent energy analysts of our generation and someone with whom we are proud to partner.
There are however two indicators that we feel quite comfortable with. These indicators are largely based on probabilities and volatility, areas we are much [...]
by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
A Classic Technical Signal: China Breaks Down
China’s stock market has broken a long-term flag to the downside. Look out below.
Since “the China Story” is the foundation of global growth, demand for commodities and ultimately, stock market profits, when China’s stock market breaks down it behooves us to pay attention. Technical analysis offers a number of tools to help us [...]
65 kt+ Wind
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
For each watch, [...]
Using monthly range projections, the probabilities are right now that we close above the monthly projected highs for INDU, SPX, UKX, NDX and RTY.
The Nikkei has recorded a TD Sequential 13 buy signal on the monthly chart.
The S&P 500 cash index daily chart is coming off a DeMark TD Sequential buy signal.
In general, the weekly charts have all held critical TDST Down levels (a [...]
Shortly after writing yesterday’s analysis we saw a +1700 tick printed as the stocks spiked up in the late afternoon. I say this is historic because in 31 years of watching the NYSE tick, I have never before seen a positive tick that extreme! A +1700 tick is unheard of, and it represents a buying extreme almost beyond comprehension. Normally, extremes of this kind indicate exhaustion of energy, as an [...]
FEDEX CHART MEANS DOUBLE-DIP FOR ECONOMY
Monday, 15 Mar 2010 | 8:07 AM ET
FedEx gives investors a clear insight into how the U.S. economy is going to perform and its chart is saying that a double dip recession is inevitable, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist from Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
“There isn’t just a risk of a double dip, the probabilities are such that I think it’s baked into the pie and [...]