via geofinancialnews: The probability model for a recession from the Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing and has now reached its highest point since 1982. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is known for its slow process of identifying …
CS is about to not be fine Credit Suisse’s top shareholder rules out providing more financial assistance to the struggling Swiss bank, citing regulatory issues https://t.co/sqjJiRF6mF — Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2023 Its’ Over For The Swiss Giant! You can’t …
by confoundedinterest17 Fun week ahead. US inflation numbers are out on Tuesday (forecast? CPI YoY = 7.3%, Core CPI YoY = 6.1%) and The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is on Wendesday. So, where are we sitting on …
Sydney real estate: regions suffer six figure price drop as borrowing power plummets Existing home sales are collapsing fast The housing market lost a record $1.3 trillion in equity in the 3rd quarter as prices continue to fall, …
by Michael One of the wealthiest men in the entire world is deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear war. On Sunday, Elon Musk posted a tweet in which he stated that “nuclear war probability is rising rapidly”, and he is right. …
by confoundedinterest17 We have the achy-breaky Fed. The Federal Reserve is facing an interesting problem. On the one hand, they vow to fight inflation by raising their target rate. At the same time, the probability of a recession in one year …
https://twitter.com/MacroTechnicals/status/1534881245510893571 Italy 10y yield 3.7% pic.twitter.com/VDinnGN2Gi — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) June 9, 2022 https://twitter.com/MacroTechnicals/status/1534886052418166784 https://twitter.com/TommyThornton/status/1534875380691226626 Italian 10-year yields rise to the highest vs German rates in more than two years: pic.twitter.com/UtX60mHK4G — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 9, 2022 Amazing Article written …
Probability of a U.S. recession (based on 2s10s yield curve per @Economics) has risen to highest since February 2007 pic.twitter.com/SbyzLLspJh — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 2, 2022 The number of news articles mentioning “hiring freeze” jumped in May. pic.twitter.com/bL1fOKorqF …
by Michael Markowski The findings from my research of the S&P 500’s PE multiples and consumer price index (CPI) volatility from 1920 to 2022 indicate that the probability is high for the secular bull market which began in 2009 to …
by Michael Markowski The S&P 500’s 10% decline from its January 4, 2022 all-time high on January 24th resulted in the index having a high probability to decline by an additional 24%, a total peak to trough decline of 34% by end …
by confoundedinterest17 Is the US slipping into darkness? The smoothed US recession probability just rose to 44.40%. Meanwhile, the CPI YoY rose to 6.24% YoY. The Fed has been lowriding rates since late 2008. Why can’t The Fed be friends with …
As President Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping ostensibly agree to abide by the Taiwan agreement, the Chinese Communist Party is warning that the militaries currently swarming Taiwan are “teetering on the edge of a face-off.” Tensions are ratcheting …
by Paul Lengemann, BullsnBears Economist Michael Markowski, who utilized his Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) algorithm to predict the October 2018 market crash says the BBT’s current déjà vu metrics indicate a high probability for an October 2021 Crash. Markowski’s …
via @dlacalle_IA: A strong and healthy economic recovery does not need further monetary stimuli. The Fed is making a big mistake by fueling the risky asset bubble and not paying attention to the risks.
by Troy As the S&P 500 stalls at its 200 day moving average, recession probabilities are rising according to the New York Fed. Let’s look at what this means for the stock market. Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long …
via @crossbordercap: Tightening Again … Alas Latest data show major #CentralBanks’ aggregate balance sheet shrinking 1.3% in US$ terms .US$, policy liquidity shrank by a whopping 5.4% , mostly due to #Fed but also by #ECB and #BOJ #BOE info..act@liquidity.com …
There is a HIGH Probability, we may see a SWIFT and SEVERE drop in Indexes in coming weeks. $DJI should not cross 26278 level(for SPX 2815.15) or ST invalidated. Uncannily similar fractals as was in 1929,1987 and now. Just a …
by Amy S. A Department of Defense (Dod) source informs me that the reason the sunspot observatory in New Mexico has been evacuated and multiple other Solar Observatories around the world have been suddenly closed is because this week Earth’s magnetic …
John M. Barry interviewed by Chris Martenson on Peak Prosperity Full description and comments at: https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas… As far as existential threats to the human species go, pandemics rank near the top of the list. What’s the probability of an agressive, highly-fatal outbreak occuring soon? …
by Robert Carbery A conflict in North Korea, according to U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes,” he told John Dickerson in a Sunday interview on CBS’s “Face the …
