by Dwaine van Vuuren, Financial Sense:
We have quarterly GDP data for 11 more OECD countries since our last post “World plunges into recession in Q42012“, and there have been some 2nd estimate revisions (such as the U.S). The chart below shows an improvement over the last post we made with the inclusion of more data points, but both the measures of single and two quarter recession metrics are still below their respective “Global [...]
Our country faces important Federal funding challenges linked to the current recession and its aftermath. On the Census Bureau’s part, we have been striving to cut administrative costs, reengineer our survey processes, and find innovative ways to squeeze every cent of taxpayer money we get. This is an important duty, I believe, we have as public servants, and I am proud of the hard work of my Census Bureau colleagues [...]
For anyone who may have been concerned that the BOE was serious in its recent “admission” that it just may not ease further, or engage in more QE for that matter, we have good news: the UK economy just double dipped for only the first time since the 1970s, following a stunning Q1 GDP release which came in far weaker than expected at -0.2% while the consensus was looking for [...]
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won’t be able to avoid a new downturn.
Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, [...]
by Sam Ro
Robert Shiller has a novel idea for America.
He writes in the Harvard Business Review:
Here’s an audacious alternative: Countries should replace much of their existing national debt with shares of the “earnings” of their economies. This would allow them to better manage their financial obligations and could help prevent future financial crises. It might even lower countries’ borrowing costs in the long run.
Basically, Shiller thinks that America could be better managed if [...]
by Alexander Gloy of Lighthouse Capital Management
Portugal: Fiddler Paid, Music Stops
While Greece is pretty forthcoming with its apocalyptic fiscal data, the same cannot be said of Portugal.
When it comes to inquiring about monthly fiscal deficits you bite on granite. Banco de Portugal has limited quarterly figures. The “Instituto Nacional de Estatistica” has conducted a study about population growth in Angola. It supplies data series on important topics as the “self-sufficiency ratio [...]
Just out from Jan Hatzius
1. With the first quarter now behind us, we have downgraded our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.5% from 3.5%. By itself, that’s not a big deal. Most indicators other than those that happen to go into the GDP bean count—in particular, virtually all business surveys and labor market indicators—continue to look solid and are probably a more accurate guide to the economy’s [...]