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By Tyler Durden Back in December we pointed out the patently obvious: in the absence of an external rebalancing mechanism, i.e., a free-floating currency, the only option for the bulk of the periphery to regain competitiveness was through ongoing wage collapse and persistent localized depression. Five months later, just as predicted, Europe is in a worse shape than ever before, not only in those non-core countries where wage deflation is accelerating, but the weakness has [...] globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / By Mike “Mish” Shedlock / Friday, February 15, 2013 8:21 PM Inquiring minds are looking at charts from the New York Times that show U.S. Trade in 2012 Outpaced Many Other Countries. “In 2012, United States exports of goods rose 4.5 percent from 2011, a faster rate of growth than that of 10 other major countries but well below the growth rate of Chinese exports. American imports rose 3 percent, but the trade [...] From Carpe Diem: Here are a few excerpts from two recent interviews on energy issues: 1. From an interview with Daniel Yergin in the Wall Street Journal: We expect to see tight-oil production [oil extracted from dense rock formations] grow dramatically over the rest of this decade. If you take what’s happening in the U.S. and what’s happening in Brazil and Canada, we’re going to see a rebalancing of global oil flows. By the [...] CHINESE HARD LANDING
For decades, experts have been predicting a crash in China.
They warned that the centrally planned, export-dependent economy, could not sustain itself year after year. But through multiple crises, China has motored along, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process. But things appear to be different this time. Corporate profits are tanking, and the Shanghai Composite is at the same levels it was during the depths [...] Advertising revenue continues to sink at the New York Times Company, which reported a second-quarter net loss of $88.1 million today. But a glimmer of hope can be seen in circulation revenue, which has actually gone up through print subscription price increases and the online paywall. At the company’s big three papers — the Times, International Herald Tribune, and Boston Globe — print and digital ad dollars dipped 6.6 percent [...] The Navy is eager to build up its presence in Asia and the Pacific. But the so-called “Asia Pivot” doesn’t tell the full story. Over the next four years, the Navy will conduct a greater ship surge in the Middle East — which is also where it’ll send its newest, latest kinds of surface ships. That’s what Adm. Jonathan Greenert, the Navy’s top officer, told Pentagon reporters on Wednesday. The Pacific [...]
WASHINGTON – About 9,000 U.S. Marines stationed on the Japanese island of Okinawa will be moved to the U.S. territory of Guam and other locations in the Asia-Pacific, including Hawaii, under a U.S.-Japan agreement announced Thursday. The move is part of a broader arrangement designed to tamp down tensions in the U.S.-Japan defense alliance stemming in part from opposition in Okinawa to what many view as a burdensome U.S. military presence. It [...] From Pragmatic Capitalism: There has long been a strong correlation between the Nikkei and the U.S. dollar/yen. A similar version of this correlation is that of the Nikkei and U.S. interest rates. The thinking is rather simple. As a trade surplus nation, the rising yen puts downward pressure on profits and Japanese equities. Unfortunately, the calls for a bottom in the U.S. dollar/yen have been made for years on end. But Credit [...] Public announcement GEAB N°62 (February 17, 2012 As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the fear largely fed by the City of London and Wall Street of a Eurozone break-up over the Greek debt crisis proved unfounded. Euroland has come out of this violently conflictual episode with its “natural allies” much reinforced. According to our team, 2012 will mark the starting point for the perpetuation of a new global power, Euroland. However, [...] by Macro Man Team Macro Man apologise for the lack of service recently. Last week saw their technical pullback first get Apple’d and then FED’d. And though there were glimmers of the technical turn, it looks as though it has morphed into a ”technical pause”. Despite the fizzling out of yesterday’s Euro summit there has been little sell-off which leaves TMM thinking that there is a chance of the European ”Policy by Sloth” may work. TMM wrote [...] Global markets slide as IMF announces that it expects a eurozone recession and cuts its world growth outlook to 3.3pc for 2012, down from 4pc in September. Image 1 of 5 • IMF cuts world growth forecast, warns of European recession From Newsmax: Pimco CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian says the world’s economies are at a tipping point. “Rather than a traditional bell-shaped distribution curve for advanced economies, the world is now increasingly facing what can be best characterized as a bimodal distribution – one can think of it as like the back of a two-humped camel,” El-Erian writes at CNN. Within the next few years, says El-Erian, a tipping to one of the two [...] I realize it feels very much like the first one never ended (Great Recessions are like that folks). But Nouriel Roubini, my friend and former boss, has just issued the Roubini Global Economics 2012 Outlook, and it’s ugly. Roubini, along with his team of economists see the euro zone’s dysfunctions as putting the US in a 50 percent chance of a new downturn. This time, however, the “decoupling” that many in [...] kingworldnews.com With gold up $111 and silver trading over $4 higher this week, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, writes for KWN to explain why the metals surged and why they will continue to surge in the months ahead. Pento states, “Greece has supposedly received a bailout and markets across the globe are soaring. In fact, they are rising in the same manner they did a few months after the [...] 12:20 p.m. | Updated In the midst of a deteriorating advertising climate, The New York Times plans to eliminate up to 20 newsroom positions and seek additional savings in the business units, the company said Thursday. The reductions, described by the New York Times Company as a rebalancing, were announced to employees on Thursday morning. The company will seek volunteers for buyouts in The [...] Let me first thank Tom Hoenig for inviting me to participate in this remarkable conference in Jackson Hole. Tom has served the Federal Reserve System with great distinction, and has made a significant contribution to economic and monetary policy discussion. And let me also recognize my friend John Lipsky who, after five years of distinguished service as First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, will [...] Business confidence among UK firms is falling, two surveys have suggested. The Business Trends optimism index from accountants BDO fell to 95.1 in July from 95.6 in June. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said that more employers planned to cut jobs than increase staffing levels in the third quarter. Both BDO and the CIPD said that the drop in confidence was thanks largely to a fragile manufacturing [...] From FT: Harold Macmillan, the prime minister who watched US power rise as the British empire crumbled, used to say that Britain would play ancient Greece to America’s Rome. These days it looks as if Rome is declining too. The US finds it increasingly hard to drive forward its vision of international trade and economics over the objections of big emerging-market countries. The Visigoths and the Vandals who [...] From FT: Harold Macmillan, the prime minister who watched US power rise as the British empire crumbled, used to say that Britain would play ancient Greece to America’s Rome. These days it looks as if Rome is declining too. The US finds it increasingly hard to drive forward its vision of international trade and economics over the objections of big emerging-market countries. The Visigoths and the Vandals who [...] From the most recent edition of Sean Corrigan’s Material Evidence So, the burning question now is whether commodity prices can shake off the disquiet caused by May’s sharp liquidation and validate the soundbite suppositions of the past few days. With so much hot money still swilling around the world, readily available at low nominal and largely negative real rates of interest, we can never say never, but [...] by ZH A new study by Deloitte confirms everyone’s worst fear (and every millionaire’s wettest dream): the wealth amassed by millionaire households is set to increase by more than 100% over the next 9 years. From a total of $92 trillion held by the world’s richest in 2011, by 2020 the world’s millionaire households will possess $202 trillion, or roughly 4 times current global GDP. Even [...] Bloomberg Television did a great little segment (via PragCap) about the infamous “ghost cities” of China. Those are those huge planned, mostly empty cities that Chanos likes to rail on. The typical reaction seems to be: OMG, cities, where nobody is living! But in reality, lots of real estate projects start with nobody in them, and then fill up over time. That’s not that weird. Sure, these are city-size projects, [...] by ZH According to the WSJ, the move is akin to what various exchanges do when they hike margin rates to prevent commodity prices from surging: “The rebalancing was driven in part by the seemingly unstoppable rise in Apple shares, which are up more than fourfold in the past two years. The tech company’s big weighting means that a change in fortune for the maker of [...] MPettis Each major country (and many minor) is pursuing monetary policies that attempt to create domestic growth at the expense of their neighbors. One of the terrible consequences of trade and currency war is that every country eventually gets caught up in the process and must play the same brutal game or suffer the consequences. No one paid much attention to [...] Sounds so desperate, isn’t it? US commerce secretary urges China to import more (AFP) – 14 hours ago SHANGHAI  US Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke said Wednesday the United States was lagging many developed countries in terms of exports as he urged Chinese consumers to buy more American products. Locke was in Shanghai leading the first cabinet-level US trade mission since US President Barack Obama announced an ambitious target in March to double [...] Rich world may face next downturn with dull weapons Rich countries may not be able to resharpen their crisis-fighting tools fast enough to get them ready for the next downturn, leaving them increasingly reliant on cash-rich emerging powerhouses to ensure stability. For nations living the good life, the party’s over, IMF says In the lingo of the International Monetary Fund, the future of the world hinges on “rebalancing and consolidation,” antiseptic words that [...] |
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