Why Suppressing Feedback Leads to Financial Crashes

by Charles Hugh-Smith

Central-planning manipulation “works” by closing all the safety valves of market feedback, creating a dangerous but politically appealing illusion of stability and “growth.”

If we see the economy as a system, we understand why removing or suppressing feedback inevitably leads to financial crashes. The essential feature of stable, robust systems (for example, healthy ecosystems) is their wealth of feedback loops and the low-intensity background volatility that complex feedback generates.

The essential [...]

Short Term – It’s Time To Lighten Up On Stocks

by Tim Ayles

We are about to get another chance to buy stocks on the cheap.

Back in July of 2011, the world was worried about the impending debt ceiling that would throw the American economy into a tailspin from which we might never recover. I was getting multiple phone calls from clients wondering what we were going to do once America defaulted, to which I responded by writing an article to [...]

Brodsky On Gold, ‘Credit Money’, And Real Return Investing

Macroeconomic issues currently playing out in Europe, Asia, and the United States may be linked by the same dynamic: over-leveraged banking systems concerned about repayment from public- and private-sector borrowers, and the implication that curtailment or non-payment would have on their balance sheets. Global banks are linked or segregated by the currencies in which they lend. Given the currencies in which their loan assets are denominated, market handicapping of the timing [...]

Why dividend stocks are such powerful bear market investments

From The Reformed Broker:

Why dividends? Jeremy Schwartz has done a lot of great work on the topic building on the groundbreaking research from his colleague at WisdomTree, Prof Jeremy Siegel (yes, your name has to be Jeremy to get a job at WisdomTree, I checked).

Anyway, Ritholtz and I have been constructing our secular bear market core portfolios almost exclusively with dividend-weighted ETFs since January 2011 (before everyone else went nuts [...]

Bernanke, Geithner and the Japanese Solution

by James Wesley, Rawles

A curious financial situation has developed in Japan. Largely overlooked in the American press, Japan now has built up a staggering national debt that is approaching 300% of their GDP. This debt exists at the same time that there is tremendous alarm in the global media over Greece’s debt, that is only about 130% of GDP. (And lest we feel smug about those spend thrift Greeks, our own debt is now more [...]

High Yield Hedge Capitulation, Risk-Appetite Back, Or Just More Illqiuidity?

by ZH

We often discuss how credit markets have provided useful insights (and potential pre-emptive indications) with regard to risk appetite and whether ES should rip and today’s incredible rally in HYG (the high yield credit bond ETF) is one to be aware (beware) of. The rumble of liquidity-driven hedging being unwound was very loud indeed and as spreads reach significant levels on a medium-term basis and HYG recovers its major [...]

Gold to silver ratio could be set to decline again

India may be the world’s top consumer of gold, with 66% increase in demand in 2010 to 963.1 tonnes, but analysts are urging investors to shore up on the white metal, expecting the gold to silver ratio to drop.

Author: Shivom Seth
Posted:  Friday , 14 Oct 2011

 

MUMBAI -

It is a buying opportunity for silver. The white metal, which rose at more than twice the rate of gold [...]

FORGET FUNDAMENTALS! Here’s What Investors Really Care About Right Now: Angela Merkel, Zhou Xiaochuan, Barack Obama and George Papandreou

Image: Wikimedia Commons

From BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus, an insightful look at the anxietites of investors:

In recent meetings with clients, we have debated several topics including the apparently depressed forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 (we take issue with the word “depressed”) as well as relative value models that compare equity v. bonds through dividend and nominal bond yields. Unfortunately though, one topic continues to dominate [...]

A Port in the Debt Storm

Clearly a reckless federal government is good for gold – or more accurately, our collective can kickers in Washington, DC, are very bad for the dollar. Take a look at the very telling graph below.

 

Contrary to the disinformation campaign of Wall Street, and their Federal Reserve sponsored economists, gold is not a bubble. Central banks are now net buyers of gold, and not because of tradition, as Mr. Bernanke [...]

If housing declines another 25% to a median of $120,000, then it would take a mere 27 ounces of gold to buy a median-priced house

What is the relative value of housing if we price it in ounces of gold?

My basic point of view is that nominal prices and broad terms such as deflation, inflation and growth should be viewed with extreme skepticism. The more useful approach is to examine the purchasing power of various assets and the the purchasing power of the income streams generated by those assets.

Put another way: to [...]

Priced In Gold, Is Housing A Buy? What is the relative value of housing if we price it in ounces of gold?

by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Priced in Gold, Is Housing a Buy?

What is the relative value of housing if we price it in ounces of gold?

My basic point of view is that nominal prices and broad terms such as deflation, inflation and growth should be viewed with extreme skepticism. The more useful approach is to examine the purchasing power of various assets and [...]

Should We Be Alarmed That The Biggest Bond Fund In The World Has Dumped All Of Their U.S. Treasury Bonds?

by ilene

 

Michael Snyder talks about the world’s addiction to debt and where that is leading us. He asks: “Should We Be Alarmed That The Biggest Bond Fund In The World Has Dumped All Of Their U.S. Treasury Bonds?”

Another excellent financial writer, Mish, thinks fading Bill Gross’s move makes some sense, though he also stated, “The alleged ‘relative value’ of emerging markets may turn out to [...]

Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd: “…the U.S. economy and dollar-denominated financial assets will look increasingly attractive on a relative value basis.”

by Zh

Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd has released a somewhat controversial piece looking at several steps forward in case the MENA crisis escalates to the point where dominoes start toppling each other. His conclusion: “After all these dominoes fall, global investors will likely find themselves in a world that looks like this: the Middle East is highly unstable, emerging market economies are slowing, and the crisis in [...]

Silver Is Still In Stage One And It Is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market

Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one.  Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in January 1980.  My view was that “gold looks ready to make a new all-time high. When that [...]

Bill Fleckenstein: The Race To the Bottom Will Be Won By the Dollar

by Adam

“This printing money is going to lead to huge trouble. It’s going to lead to higher interest rates. It’s going to lead to more inflation and at some point there is going to be a train wreck in the currency and the bond market.”

Market commentator and money manager Bill Fleckenstein sat down for a recent interview with ChrisMartenson.com and opened fire with both barrels [...]

John Embry: “I am not in the least bit concerned about these shenanigans because I believe considerable additional quantitative easing is inevitable, irrespective of what the Fed says or does in the short term.”

“Gold, Silver Could Go Ballistic By Year End” published in Investor’s Digest of Canada

The gold price experienced a virtually uninterrupted rise of more than $200 in a 2 1/2 month period from the end of July through mid-October.  This came on the heels of an orchestrated $100 price takedown following an all-time price high in mid-June as the authorities took great pains at that time [...]

Currency valuation

The one area over which the Federal Reserve has no direct control is the relative value of the US dollar to other currencies. Right now, the U.S. runs a huge trade deficit with China due in large part to the Chinese ability to control the value of the yuan (or renminbi) to the USD. It is well understood that the Chinese and some other asian currencies are kept artificially low [...]

A good read: Why Bernanke Might Choose Deflation

Let’s say, for a moment, that you’re in charge of the U.S. Federal Reserve. You assumed the top job shortly after a significant surge in prices had taken place in the United States’ housing markets, but the bubble on which those prices were rising has now long since dissipated.

Your initial response to try to stabilize the markets was to try to [...]