Classic Santelli: “We can’t afford our bills any more… $100 Trillion dollars of unfunded liability… The FED doesn’t have a clue.”
JOHN TAYLOR: 2013 Will Start With Markets Up, And Then There Will Be Trouble
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) — After four decades in the foreign- exchange business, John Taylor says a further depreciation of the yen versus the U.S. dollar is one of the surest bets he sees going into the new [...]
Just one more QE-episode… growth will come in two quarters, we promise… housing has bottomed… stocks ‘signal’ all is well. We have heard these ‘meme’s a thousand times and yet still what is borrowed is given to shareholders and animal spirits (judging by the dismal confidence among small business leaders) remain mired in the quagmire of uncertainty and risk aversion. Nowhere is this more evident than the roll-over (and now falling) demand [...]
Iran Gold Imports From Turkey Surge To $8 Billion YTD – $3.2 Billion Worth Of Bullion In Q2 2012
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,731.00, EUR 1,352.77 and GBP 1,081.33 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,732.75, EUR 1,355.09 and GBP 1,082.63 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $33.57/oz, €26.36/oz and £21.02/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,602.75/oz, palladium at $668.20/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz.
Gold fell $8.80 or 0.506% in New York [...]
The eurozone economic downturn since the start of the crisis looks like the Great Depression of the 1930s, according to one economist
The decline in the economy of the eurozone, sparked by the beginning of the debt crisis with the shocks in Greece two and a half years ago, “seems to be more of a long-distance run than a quick sprint,” according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
From The Stock Sage:
The tension is building, can you feel it?
Spanish bond yields are soaring to euro area all-time highs and CDS on Spanish debt is blowing out…
Sentiment is pervasively bearish and the guy who hasn’t been able to do much of anything right during the last two years says there is a 50% chance that the euro will unravel over the next two years: “John Paulson Said to See [...]
In other words, you take your junk lower quality paper to the ECB and you reserve your high quality collateral (e.g. bunds) for the private repo market. The problem is that the private repo market continues to seize up because of a lack of high quality collateral and a rising sense of risk aversion over counterparty risk, i.e. you don’t trust that you are going to get paid back so you demand [...]
Zeit: Greece may need third bailout soon
CITI: Here Are 3 Greek Exit Scenarios! Everyone is pretty aware of the terrible situation Greece is in and with their newly elected anti-bailout leadership, it’s highly likely that they will leave the EU. In a recent analysis of the situation, Citi has released a mock up of three scenarios with the most disastrous being a “Disorderly GrExit”. In that scenario the VIX index, [...]
BERLIN, June 7 (UPI) – Europe has weeks to save the euro and must create an “immediate” rescue plan, the United States and Britain plan to tell Germany Thursday, Britain said.
Such a rescue plan could involve Germany pledging to underwrite struggling countries’ debt, officials said.
British Prime Minister David Cameron was to tell German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin Thursday he and U.S. President Barack Obama believe an authoritative agreement that fully gets the job done must be [...]
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,548.75, EUR 1,244.98, and GBP 995.41 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,573.75, EUR 1,254.48, and GBP 1,003.67 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $27.75/oz, €22.39/oz and £17.87/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,416.25/oz, palladium at $597.75/oz and rhodium at $1,275/oz.
Gold fell 0.89% or $14.00 in active trading yesterday and closed at $1,558.80/oz. Gold fell marginally in Asia but remains in a tight [...]
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,537.50, EUR 1,208.73, and GBP 966.31 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,559.00, EUR 1,213.61 and GBP 969.95 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $27.33/oz, €21.59/oz and £17.24/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,427.50/oz, palladium at $592.60/oz and rhodium at $1,300/oz.
Gold fell $16.30 or 1.05% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,542.30/oz. Gold traded off in Asia hitting a low of $1,526.80/oz [...]
Apparently ECB President Draghi believes things are going so well over in Euroland that traders are “correct” in their perceptions that no near term stimulus is needed. Down went gold, and silver, and copper, etc. as money flowed out of those markets and elsewhere into I have no idea what based on the fact that the equity markets are lower and are the bonds. Let’s call it mattress money flows.
Meanwhile data coming out [...]
In his usual quiet manner, TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman unloads his emotional baggage along withUSAWatchdog’s Greg Hunter in this 15-minute interview. The sad truth is that, just like his alter-ego Lewis Black, Biderman is right – again and again. Whether it is reflecting on the kick-the-can mentality of polticians or US investor’s apparent willingness to accept the pulling-the-printing-press-over-our-eyes-behavior, or the fact that Europe can only get worse and how that [...]
For juniors overall, 2011 and 2012, so far, have been a veritable plague. Many a junior market capitalization has painfully shrunk.
There are often individual reasons beyond general market malaise for that pain, of course. Some juniors have disappointed (former) investors with lackluster plans for minerals assets. Some may be in project development periods that are too boring for the gambler.
But beyond those and other individual causes, it is hard [...]
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,622.50, EUR 1,239.21, and GBP 1,022.82 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,631.75, EUR 1,239.65 and GBP 1,027.75 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $31.36/oz, €24.00/oz and £19.80/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,595.75/oz, palladium at $635.80/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $27.90 or 1.69% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,618.40/oz. Gold ticked higher in Asia prior [...]
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,631.75, EUR 1,239.65, and GBP 1,027.75 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,674.75, EUR 1,254.03 and GBP 1,044.17 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.01/oz, €24.31/oz and £20.16/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,622.20/oz, palladium at $640/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $30.70 or 1.83% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,646.30/oz. Gold traded sideways in Asia prior [...]
Interesting recommendation by Goldman and even more interesting to see the market reaction in gold today. Can you say that someone is particularly overjoyed by the opportunity to take that recommendation?
By the way, Goldman is echoing the remarks from Chairman Bernanke the other day and repeating what my interpretation of those remarks were in this week’s comments entitled, “Pass the Juice Please”.
Goldman’s views in summary can be translated as follows: [...]
Whether it was the truthiness of Willem Buiter’s comments this morning, the sad reality of Spanish housing, or more likely the ugly fact that LTRO3 is not coming (as money-good assets evaporate), today was broadly the worst day of the year for European sovereigns. Spanish 10Y spreads jumped their most since the first day of the year, Italian yields broke back above 5% (and spreads broke back over 300bps), and Belgium, [...]
By: Nouriel Roubini
While recent developments seem to suggest some positive news for the global economy, there are at least four downside risks that could materialize this year – undermining global growth and eventually negatively affecting investor confidence and market valuations of risky assets.
RIO DE JANEIRO – Since late last year, a series of positive developments has boosted investor confidence and led to a sharp rally in risky assets, starting with global [...]
If they agree to the austerity measures, in spite of the protests, they are merely playing for time. They have no hope of complying with the conditions set by the EU and IMF. However, if they refuse to accept the conditions, they will default immediately. Their own personal house of cards will come tumbling down. Is it not normal human behaviour to try and postpone the doom for as long [...]
Asia Buying Gold On Dips – “Empires May Fall, Currencies May Change… Gold Will Always Survive”
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,727.00, EUR 1,302.22, and GBP 1,093.17 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,715.50, EUR 1,295.21, and GBP 1,084.25 per ounce.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold opened in Asia nearly $13 higher at $1,734.90/oz (after closing at $1,719.60 on Friday) prior to giving up those gains and trading [...]
by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
Self-Interest And The Pathology Of Power: The Corruption Of America Part 2
The self-interest of the alcoholic is to keep drinking. Is this truly in his best interests? The answer illuminates the pathology of power in America.
If we ignore the lip-service showered on “reform,” we find that there is really only one strategy in America: extend and pretend. Individuals, households, communities, cities, states, enterprises and the [...]
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
JPM Buys Greece For $2
While we wait for the antics in Greece to result in some announcement, I can’t help but think about how different the Greek situation is from when JPM bought Bear Stearns (shortly after the last time the Giants won the super bowl).
The “weekend” deadline for Bear was neither artificial, nor self-imposed. Without a deal, Bear would have failed that week [...]
Boaz Weinstein, founder of Saba Capital and former co-head of credit trading at Deutsche Bank, spoke exclusively to Bloomberg TV’s Stephanie Ruhle about the CDS market and outlook for 2012.
Weinstein said that “we do have a long position in Italy” and the markets this year will “be a repeat of 2011.”
Video for viewing and embedding here: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84131872/
Additional video available upon request.
Weinstein on markets in 2012:
“It’s really going to be more [...]
Buried deep in the 137 pages of Fixed Income 2012 Outlook, Deutsche’s bond group looks at the implications of an extremely flat US Treasury Curve and implicitly low bond risk premium. Based on 5Y5Y rates relative to long-term growth and inflation expectations, tail inflation risks, and estimates of supply/demand shocks, the current bond risk premium are at levels that were witnessed ahead of the bond market sell-off of 1994, at [...]
(Reuters) – Morgan Stanley said it prefers exposure to gold, silver and livestock in the coming year, as such commodities perform well in a global economic slowdown.
The bank’s economists expect global GDP to grow by a mere 3.5 percent in 2012, down from its prior forecast of 3.8 percent, with the first half of the year seen as particularly weak.
“Given the low growth environment, we do not feel it is [...]
By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden, MarketWatch
It’s still all about Europe. The deteriorating situation has been affecting all of the markets, but the failure of the super-committee to reach a compromise on U.S. debt is now weighing in too.
The end result has been uncertainty, volatile market swings, risk aversion, vulnerability and growing demand for safe havens.
Increasingly, we’re hearing more talk about a 2008 repeat and this is [...]
From Citi’s Steven Englander
The EUR rally in the aftermath of the EU summit is not corroborated by the fairly muted correction in fundamental drivers like sovereign debt risk. Indeed, the summit outcome has brought euro zone government spreads just back to where they were in two weeks ago (Figure 1) and the level of rates in peripherals has barely budged. Measures of relative rate expectations like 2y Germany-US bond yields [...]
Credit Suisse: Buy The Dips, A Recession Is Priced In
Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
Oct. 7, 2011, 4:56 AM
The Credit Suisse investment committee has concluded that a recession is now priced in and that further downside should be bought. They believe volatility is likely to continue, but should ultimately provide opportunity to add to solid companies (via CS):
“The past few weeks turned out to be very difficult [...]
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
The credit markets here are actually deteriorating and are showing signs that there is growing default concern, rather than just pressure to reduce risk.
The red line is the ratio of BAC 5yr CDS vs 3yr CDS. It was the first curve to flatten. The dark blue line is the European XOVER index. As European sovereigns weakened, XOVER started to trade [...]
by Tony Palotta of MacroStory.com
Changing Risk Perceptions Across Multiple Asset Classes
This week saw a lot of technical damage across multiple asset classes as demonstrated by the charts below. The biggest shift though appears to be that of perceived risk. In the past bad news was good news as it would bring further accommodative monetary policy such as QE1 and QE2. Market participants always believed the Bernanke [...]